Trader(All Mkts), Fixed Income/Macro, $SPX Aficionado, long/short every tick since 1998. On the self-improvement journey. Peekaboooo™️ warning originator
Joined August 2009
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HY6 retweeted
Volatility arrived,we were prepared and capitalized!
Another great week in the books!
Some highlights from room:
🔥SPX 7500 puts 5.2-98! 1800%
🔥NVDA puts layers up to 8X hilyas
🔥NVDA 180s swing 400% hy6
🔥GLD calls 670% hy6
🔥TSLA puts 460% simo
🔥MU calls up to 4X dersh hy6
🔥GOOGL calls 3X hy6
🔥SPCX puts 3X Rviz
🔥MU puts 11-83 654%
🔥SPCX buy up 13pts bottom tick
If you’re a serious trader and wish to join our private room. DM us
No beginners
HY6 retweeted
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The same satellite data once used to catch Trump overstating Hormuz traffic is now showing roughly 12 million barrels moving through the Strait.
And Iran isn’t denying it.
Philip Pilkington says that helps explain why Trump could reject Tehran’s seven-day reopening offer despite rising energy prices and approaching midterms.
“𝘈𝘯𝘺 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘢 𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥.”
That’s the problem.
If Goodhart’s Law has reached the Strait of Hormuz, nobody really knows how much oil is moving anymore.
And that uncertainty may be the whole game.
@philippilk
🇮🇷 What if everything we thought we knew about the Strait of Hormuz is wrong?
Economist Philip Pilkington joins me for one of the most honest conversations I've had about this war, and it started with a question I've been struggling to answer:
Tanker Trackers, the same satellite and AIS data sources we used for months to prove Trump was lying about oil flows, now show 12M barrels a day coming out of the Gulf on the American side, and ZERO Iranian oil moving.
Pilkington's response is Goodhart's Law: the moment a metric becomes the target of public attention, it gets manipulated, and now that everyone is watching Tanker Trackers, the data itself cannot be trusted.
On the economics: the insurance math simply does NOT work for tankers moving through an active war zone...
The risk of losing a $350 million ship and cargo at a 10% probability makes the profit margin on the oil irrelevant, and yet ships are apparently getting through.
My counter: shadow fleet vessels owned by Gulf states, willing to absorb hits, offloading through ship-to-ship transfers in the Sea of Oman before the cargo reaches larger commercial tankers outside the strait.
Neither of us had a clean answer, and that is the most honest thing I can tell you about where this war actually stands right now...
Thanks for an interesting convo, @philippilk
HY6 retweeted
Whenever I come across the market breadth argument, it reminds me of the old-school traders around 2015 who began realizing that you couldn’t simply use bond-equity correlations from the 1970s to identify current market regimes. Over time, market structure changes, relationships evolve, and historically reliable signals can become far less useful.
I think we are seeing something similar with market breadth today. The massive growth in single-stock options has introduced another layer of reflexivity and price discovery into equity markets, driven by both end-user positioning and the dealers hedging that risk. Naturally, that means the relationship between individual stocks and the broader index today is meaningfully different from what it was even six years ago. The increasing crowding of dispersion trading has amplified this dynamic even further.
One consequence is that, over the last few years, traditional long-only equity investors have often increased exposure as market breadth improves. Yet, contrary to what historically worked, those periods have frequently turned out to be precisely the wrong time to add exposure.
The broader point is simple: market breadth is not a static signal. Its behavior has changed materially as the underlying microstructure of equity and options markets has evolved. If you continue relying on older breadth metrics without accounting for those structural changes, you risk applying yesterday’s framework to today’s market.
S&P 500 BREADTH FALLS TO DOT-COM ERA LOW
Goldman Sachs says AI stocks are masking extreme weakness beneath the S&P 500, with market breadth falling to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble.
The median S&P 500 stock now trades 16% below its 52-week high, while investor positioning has fallen sharply.
Goldman sees potential for lagging stocks to catch up if macro uncertainty eases.
HY6 retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller: “You need to be intellectually curious, really really open-minded, & you need to have courage.
And when I say courage, you need the courage to bet big & bet concentrated, but also the courage to fight your own emotions.”
HY6 retweeted
What a week. Too many wins to post, here’s just a few callouts from yesterday and today to highlight an incredible week of great teamwork:
🔥CBRS 195C 1.45 to 19! 1300% hy6
🔥MU Calls 600% Dersh
🔥BE calls 500-800% -miracle hy6
🔥HOOD 920% -John
🔥CRCL calls 400%+ -bin
HY6 retweeted
Treasury cannot print cash the way the Fed can. HOWEVER, draining the TGA would have an equivalent impact by boosting bank reserve assets/deposit liabilities. It unbottles cash that was previously created but locked away in the TGA.
BESSENT COULD UNLEASH $1 TRILLION ON BOND MARKET
The US Treasury could tap its nearly $1 trillion cash account to fund expanded bond buybacks, potentially giving it major firepower to push long-term yields lower.
Treasury recently doubled minimum buybacks of longer-dated securities to $4 billion, with Bessent signaling even larger purchases are possible.
Using existing Treasury cash could strengthen the program’s market impact while reducing the need for Federal Reserve involvement.
HY6 retweeted
Proud to say we nailed the largest weekly BTC candle in history via $IBIT calls and $BITX from Monday entry to Friday exit! 🔥🔥🔥🔥
HY6 retweeted
Im often told I shouldnt underestimate China, Russia, the BRICS, etc. Which is very good advice. These same people will then underestimate the country thats been running the world for 80 yrs & tell me it cant possibly continue. So I always thought that made a lot of sense.😑
HY6 retweeted
After Jackson Hole a year ago, the yield curve did the same kind of bear-steepening it's doing now after the July 29 FOMC. Last year this sparked the crazy rally in gold and other precious metals and it's happening again now. The debasement trade is back.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
HY6 retweeted
The US and Japan really threw everything at markets in last week's intervention, but the Yen is now falling again. In fact, its fall is exactly in line with the aftermath of past intervention episodes. An underwhelming outcome for the US and Japan...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
HY6 retweeted
Shale Giant Diamondback Warns Higher Crude Prices Here to Stay
Diamondback Energy Inc., one of the largest drillers in North America’s premier oil field, warned that higher crude prices are the new normal as the US-Iran conflict disrupts energy markets.
The worst oil-supply shock in history forced governments and refiners to drain almost 5 million barrels a day from stored reserves as the war effectively shut down Persian Gulf crude shipping. Those inventories will need to be replenished and when they are, oil markets will feel the squeeze, Diamondback Chief Executive Officer Kaes Van’t Hof wrote in a letter to investors Monday.
“We believe the restocking required to rebuild global inventories has structurally raised the floor for oil prices compared to pre-conflict prices,” he wrote. “The timing of the eventual supply normalization is impossible to predict and we therefore expect this volatility to continue.” (Bloomberg)
HY6 retweeted
Translation: "Mr. President, you have repeatedly demonstrated in recent months that you cannot defend our infrastructure from Iran's missiles. So if you attack Iran again & our infrastructure gets hit in retaliation, we will publicly withdraw all US investments we committed to."
Scoop: Saudi Crown Prince MBS spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, two U.S. officials and another source familiar say. @MarcACaputo and I write for @axios
axios.com/2026/08/01/saudi-c…
HY6 retweeted
I'm being asked why the US broke a decade-plus policy of not interfering with the market-setting of exchange rates.
I suspect the drivers include:
Trade Competitiveness: Washington sees an excessively weak yen as a drag on American trade competitiveness, not just in bilateral trade with Japan but also in third markets across the globe.
Yield Concerns: In past solo interventions, Tokyo has tended to fund its yen purchases by selling US Treasuries, a move that inadvertently pushes bond yields higher and drives up domestic borrowing costs for the American government, companies, and households.
The upside for both countries is clear: This type of joint intervention carries a lot more weight, and markets are paying attention, at least initially.
The catch for the US? Washington has now signed onto a strategy whose ultimate success doesn't rest in its own hands. Instead, as discussed in previous posts, it hinges on a comprehensive policy alignment in Tokyo among the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance, and the Prime Minister’s Office.
#economy #markets #japan #yen #currency #intervention #fx
HY6 retweeted
Hard to even process -- a president selling market-moving information to banks and wealthy investors in advance of everyone else, and personally pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars from it. This alone is more worthy of impeachment than 100 Watergate cover-ups.
BREAKING: Trump Media has officially launched its new paid data service, providing faster access to Truth Social posts from President Trump.
The new service is called "Truth API" which gives firms "a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths," the company's CEO said in a press release.
The service reportedly costs as much as $100,000/month.
HY6 retweeted
$MU at 6x earnings. $INTC at 100x. Same cycle.
Gil Luria's cleanest dislocation on The Real Eisman Playbook @realsteveeisman: the market prices Micron as if the memory cycle ends next year, and Intel as if it runs to 2030. Both cannot be true.
His read - memory is now the better market than CPUs, which flips the historical order. So Micron at 6x while Intel sits at 100x is the inconsistency, and the trade.
Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs told Anthony Pompliano last week the easy money in the AI trade is over. This is the counter - the dispersion inside semis is where it is still mispriced, not gone.
Net - a pair setup, not a beta bet. Long the multiple priced for a top, against the one priced for five more years.
Full breakdown: youtube.com/watch?v=SWEzkOMe…
Dan Ives @DivesTech just admitted he was "dead wrong" on $ORCL. Gil Luria called the top.
Now Luria is the one saying look again.
Oracle ran 200 to 330 on a single OpenAI backlog deal, then round-tripped to 140. The market now values the entire ~$630B compute backlog at zero. But OpenAI raised $122B, the largest raise ever, and narrowed to compute, so those bills are payable. Zero starts to look wrong the other way.
Jim Chanos @RealJimChanos, on Risk Reversal back on Jul 17, called the AI-compute backlog a mirage. This is the direct bet against that.
The read - at a zero backlog, any conversion at all is upside. The risk sits with OpenAI's commitments, not Oracle's execution.
Full exchange: youtube.com/watch?v=SWEzkOMe…