Terry

When it pops, the world will pop with it...

🇺🇸 America could be heading toward a crisis bigger than anything we've seen in generations. I spoke with Neil Howe, the historian behind The Fourth Turning, as reports of a constitutional confrontation in Poland were unfolding live. What made the timing extraordinary was everything else happening around us. The AI selloff is accelerating. Another war with Iran is looking increasingly possible. Political tensions are rising across Europe, and the US is heading into another bitterly contested election. Neil has spent decades studying what happens when societies reach moments like this. He sees three major dangers: a devastating financial crash, a breakdown of political institutions, and a major international war. But what really caught my attention was his explanation of how they feed into one another. An economic collapse can destroy public confidence. Political paralysis can invite foreign aggression. And a war can push an already fragile financial system over the edge. We discussed America's deep political divisions, the possibility of rival centers of government emerging during a constitutional crisis, and why countries that have experienced war are taking civilian preparedness far more seriously than Americans. Neil also raised something I hadn't considered enough. We're building an economy increasingly dependent on AI, enormous data centers and interconnected infrastructure, while the power grids and communications networks supporting it remain vulnerable to disruption. His concern isn't that catastrophe is inevitable, but that Americans have grown accustomed to assuming major crises happen somewhere else. And as we spoke, the incoming reports of a possible coup in Warsaw was a reminder of how quickly political confrontations can escalate. The next great crisis may not arrive as one dramatic event, but as several crises hitting at once, each making the others harder to contain. @HoweGeneration

🇺🇲 Philip Pilkington: the AI BUBBLE may be bursting right before the midterms He points to PIMCO dumping 50% of its AI debt and thinks that helped trigger the selloff. Pilkington goes further: He thinks markets were already on the edge, and some investors may have decided to let the air out NOW, with Americans heading to the polls watching their 401(k)s fall. That political motive is his theory, not established fact. But the timing is brutal. A market crash days before an election is not background noise. @philippilk

🇺🇲 David Lin: if AI companies can’t keep raising fresh money, the unwind could get UGLY fast He points to Elon saying capital markets have nearly shut off funding for companies without meaningful revenue outside AI data centers. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has made a similar point: “capital is scarce.” Lin’s concern is simple: A lot of this boom depends on constant new financing. If that stops, highly leveraged AI companies don’t just slow down. Some may start going bankrupt. @davidlin_TV

🇺🇸 The AI bubble may be bursting, and the damage could go far beyond tech stocks. I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington as another brutal selloff hit the technology sector. Intel plunged, Alphabet and Amazon have suffered major declines, and Philip says the warning signs are starting to resemble the final stages of a financial bubble. But his biggest concern isn't the stock market. It's the enormous amount of money already poured into AI infrastructure. Philip compared today's data center boom to America's 19th-century railroad mania. Both involved extraordinary investment in infrastructure built on the assumption that future demand would justify the cost. Some of those railroads never found enough customers. Philip fears the same could happen to data centers. And unlike the dot-com bubble, he argues that AI spending has become a major driver of the real economy. If investment suddenly dries up, the consequences could spread well beyond Silicon Valley. He also raised a provocative theory: that major investors may be accelerating the selloff ahead of the US midterms to hurt Trump politically. That's his interpretation, not an established fact. AI will change the world. But have investors spent FAR more money than the technology can earn back?! @philippilk