McFly retweeted
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.
Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined.
$100b plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
For anyone thats wondering whos who...
Neoscalers: $CRWV $NBIS
Larger or more scalable AI GPU cloud providers (e.g., ones like Nebius that can reach meaningful scale). Expected to survive by achieving sustainable economics beyond pure euphoria-driven equity funding for capex.
Neoclouds: Lambda, Crusoe, Nscale, $IREN, Together AI, Fluidstack, Runpod, Voltage Park
The many smaller pure-play GPU-as-a-service operators. Treated as a capex/IRR business that works mainly in scarce-supply, easy-funding markets. Most face “guppy-level” death or consolidation when debt markets tighten and supply normalizes.
McFly retweeted
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 10/24 footage confirms massive expansion is underway at $IREN's Mackenzie site in BC.
Will @danroberts0101 discuss this on the 11/5 earnings call?
More details to come!
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Neocloud FUD needs to stop.
$IREN will continue to sell out their capacity, receive funding & build their datacenter’s.
From a power aspect, they are essentially de-risked due to their grid connections.
Chip allocation is basically certain due to their Nvidia Partnership/Investment.
IREN is the most vertically integrated from the ground up, so any construction worry should be less of worry from a GC perspective. If IREN has delays then any other company will for sure have.
They delivered H1 on time and are still set to deliver the rest of their capacity by year 2026. Meeting the deadline.
The H1 network topology changes was an additional separate request from Microsoft ans H1 continues to bill as usual.
$IREN 6GW
As Chamath Palihapitiya mentioned, the biggest constraint on AI scaling isn’t chips or demand, but access to reliable power. Grid connections, transformers, and permitting simply aren’t keeping pace with AI infrastructure expansion.
This raises the risk of NVIDIA $NVDA GPUs sitting idle in unfinished data centers. Neoclouds with CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and IREN $IREN need reliable power to turn their capacity into revenue.
Power infrastructure companies Forgent $FPS, Bloom Energy $BE, and Constellation Energy $CEG could benefit as investment shifts toward solving these bottlenecks. I remain bullish on AI long term, but securing power and executing projects will separate the winners from the losers.
@chamath
Obviously so bullish $IREN
The only neocloud who checks all the boxes of being vertically integrated from the ground up to build a DC.
2027 is coming stronger than ever.
I am not sure about the other Neo-Clouds, but I know IREN is very unique when it comes to their capacity strategy.
McFly retweeted
$IREN, $NBIS, $CRWV
“Within the next 6 months, most AI startups will not be able to buy compute. The world’s compute is sold out."
This is why neo-clouds exist.
Hot take from S.F. compute:
“Within the next 6 months, most AI startups will not be able to buy compute. The world’s compute is sold out. To get capacity, you’ll need to sign up for a new cluster. However, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to get capacity online from folks who are not investment grade.
Startups are not investment grade.”
I hope this is wrong, but I think many entities are unprepared for compute shortages and demand being much higher than what Wall Street expects, and so high demand and high interest rates will cause a big problem for everyone.
McFly retweeted
IREN is partnering with NVIDIA to launch Minerva, NVIDIA’s new AIOps platform, on IREN AI Cloud.
Our VP of AI Cloud, Jason Forrester, joins NVIDIA’s Gilad Shainer and 650 Group’s Alan Weckel to explore how IREN’s approach to AIOps enhances visibility, strengthens operations and keeps compute productive.
Watch the conversation: youtu.be/MWVjiWYs1sw
Keeping an AI factory running at full yield starts with clear operational insight.
Our SVP of Networking, Gilad Shainer, joins @AlanWeckel, Co-founder of @650Group, and Jason Forrester, VP AI Cloud at @IREN_Ltd, to unpack how NVIDIA Minerva cuts alert noise, speeds root-cause analysis, and maximizes GPU uptime in production.
Watch the full discussion: youtu.be/AYGSUv-EAfY