@itsAdam

Exploring businesses, valuations & market cycles. Sharing perspectives, asking better questions.

 New York, NY
Joined October 2008
  • Tweets10.3K
  • Following80
  • Followers8.3K
AH $ULBI/$ICLR/$AMD: $ULBI $16 cash deal pending; $ICLR adj EPS $2.66; $AMD Helios at Meta in testing. Like Oct28 cash closes >$15.75/$203.91/$568.62; next $16/$210/$591.88. Risk: closes <$15.53/$190.56/$556.79 or deal breaks. $15.75/$210: watches.
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AH $MANH/$PPG/$UCTT. $MANH cloud +28%; fresh catalysts unverified for the other two. Like Oct28 cash closes >$260.00/$125.00/$59.87; next $270.00/$130.00/$62.82. Risk: closes <$242.63/$114.25/$55.20. Round watches: $260/$270/$125/$130.
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$AMD/$NVDA/$AVGO: Oct27 Meta / Oct27 OCI / Oct26 AI financing. Like cash closes >$568.62/$218.88/$344.70; next $591.88/$222.19/$354.25. Risk: cash closes <$556.79/$216.00/$341.10. All below provisional SMA20; outlooks are forecasts.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Heisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives5h
In the last 36 months, the $SPX has had only 3 months where it dropped greater than -2.50% at the end of the month. April 2024 March 2025 March 2026 So for 2027, expect another bigly down month come Mar/April? I mean why not right?
Heisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives6h
Stat time: In the last 36 months the $SPX has only had 3 Months where it closed lower than -2.50%. Just 3.
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$NVDA/$AVGO/$AMZN: Oct27 OCI availability / Oct26 AI financing / Oct29 earnings. Like cash closes >$218.88/$344.70/$255.54; next $222.19/$354.25/$258.41. Risk: cash closes <$217.75/$341.10/$250.79. All below provisional SMA20.
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$AMD/$MU/$TSLA: Oct27 Meta testing / Oct20 Indium funding / Oct21 results. Like cash closes >$568.62/$931.65/$410.00; next $591.88/$949.42/$420.00. Risk: cash closes <$556.79/$915.75/$397.27. SMAs provisional.
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$NVDA/$AVGO/$AMZN: Oct21 DSX / Oct26 AI financing / Oct29 earnings. Like cash closes >$218.88/$341.10/$251.83; next $222.19/$344.70/$255.54. Risk: cash closes <$216.00/$332.12/$250.79. All below provisional SMA20.
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$TSLA/$INTC/$TSM RTH: Oct21 results / Oct29 earnings / Oct15 earnings. Like cash closes >$400.00/$94.39/$435.16; next $410.00/$95.39/$440.39. Risk: cash closes <$397.27/$92.09/$428.85. SMAs provisional.
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$NVDA/$AMD/$AVGO PM: Oct21 DSX / Oct20 PyTorch plans / Oct26 AI financing. Bullish on cash closes >$218.88/$548.11/$341.10; next $222.19/$556.79/$344.70. Risk: cash closes <$213.85/$523.92/$332.12. All below SMA20.
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$INTC/$TSM/$TSLA PM watch: Oct20 PyTorch plans / Oct15 earnings / Oct21 results. Like cash closes >$92.09/$428.85/$397.27; next $94.39/$435.16/$400.00. Risk: cash closes <$89.19/$421.31/$388.86. $INTC/$TSM below SMA20.
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Watching $AMZN/$NVDA/$MU AH: Oct29 earnings / Oct21 DSX / Oct20 Indium. Like the rebound on cash closes >$250.79/$218.88/$928.45; next $255.60/$222.19/$953.60. Risk: cash closes <$248.00/$213.85/$891.89. All below SMA20.
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$TSLA/$AVGO/$CRWD: Oct21 results/AI-security news are context, not today's catalyst. Need cash closes > $397.27/$339.24/$268.08 for $400.00/$341.10/$272.50. Bull case fails on cash closes < $388.86/$330.82/$257.91. $AVGO below SMA20.
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$INTC/$MU/$AMD on watch. Oct20 x86 PyTorch plan is context, not a fresh catalyst. Need cash closes > $92.96/$928.45/$548.11 for $95.39/$953.60/$556.79. Bull case fails on cash closes < $86.96/$891.89/$523.92. All below SMA20.
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$GE/$RTX/$LMT: $LMT's Oct 22 earnings keep aerospace on watch. Cash closes > $287.98/$197.00/$636.88 open $293.54/$197.21/$640.00. Cash closes < $285.64/$196.15/$609.32 void the setup. $GE below both provisional MAs.
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$NVDA/$INTC/$MU: Oct 21 capacity plans keep $NVDA in focus. Cash closes > $217.66/$92.96/$913.67 open $218.88/$93.73/$918.89. Cash closes < $213.85/$90.75/$908.30 void the setup. All below provisional SMA20; $INTC reports Oct 29.
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Watching $NVDA/$MU/$CRWD after the Oct 21 $NVDA-$CRWD security collaboration. Cash closes >$218.88/$908.30/$268.08 could open $222.19/$918.89/$276.39. Cash closes <$213.85/$891.89/$257.91 kill the setup, respectively. $NVDA and $MU remain below provisional 20-day MAs.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Max Crypto
@MaxCryptoOct 25
BITCOIN HAS ALWAYS DUMPED AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN THE PAST. But there's one thing most people are missing. In the past, Bitcoin formed its cycle bottom after the midterm election. So a dump was a correlation and not causation. This time, Bitcoin has already formed its cycle bottom, so maybe this dump won't repeat. There's a decent chance Bitcoin will bottom before this year's midterm elections while those waiting for a crash will get left behind. We already saw that with the cycle bottom, and this could repeat again.
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The US junk bond market is under severe pressure: The effective yield on US CCC-rated and lower-rated high-yield corporate bonds is up to 18.0%, its highest level since the 2020 pandemic. This figure has surged +500 basis points over the last 6 months, marking its largest 6-month increase since the 2022 bear market. For perspective, this yield peaked at 45.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, credit spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds over Treasuries are up to 13.4%, the widest gap since July 2020. Over the last 6 months, this gauge has risen +464 basis points, surpassing the 2022 bear market peak of 12.8%. Cracks are widening beneath the surface of the credit market.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Bull Theory
@BullTheoryioOct 26
BREAKING: 🇧🇷 Brazil’s stock market halts trading after triggering a circuit breaker. Almost R$1 TRILLION ($200 BILLION) has been wiped out from Brazilian stocks following Lula’s unexpected election victory.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Coin Bureau
@coinbureauOct 26
JUST IN: Meta plans to raise up to $95 BILLION to help fund its AI expansion. The plan includes a $35B offering now and a potential $60B share sale starting in 2027. The current offering consists of $22.5B in common shares and $12.5B in convertible preferred stock. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in buying up to $5B combined META shares. The money would help fund data centers, computing power and Meta’s push to build personal superintelligence. $META reversed an initial -5% premarket drop to trade nearly +3% higher.
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