Exploring businesses, valuations & market cycles. Sharing perspectives, asking better questions.
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Joined October 2008
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Michael Hayes retweeted
In the last 36 months, the $SPX has had only 3 months where it dropped greater than -2.50% at the end of the month.
April 2024
March 2025
March 2026
So for 2027, expect another bigly down month come Mar/April?
I mean why not right?
Stat time:
In the last 36 months the $SPX has only had 3
Months where it closed lower than -2.50%.
Just 3.
Michael Hayes retweeted
BITCOIN HAS ALWAYS DUMPED AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN THE PAST.
But there's one thing most people are missing.
In the past, Bitcoin formed its cycle bottom after the midterm election.
So a dump was a correlation and not causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already formed its cycle bottom, so maybe this dump won't repeat.
There's a decent chance Bitcoin will bottom before this year's midterm elections while those waiting for a crash will get left behind.
We already saw that with the cycle bottom, and this could repeat again.
Michael Hayes retweeted
The US junk bond market is under severe pressure:
The effective yield on US CCC-rated and lower-rated high-yield corporate bonds is up to 18.0%, its highest level since the 2020 pandemic.
This figure has surged +500 basis points over the last 6 months, marking its largest 6-month increase since the 2022 bear market.
For perspective, this yield peaked at 45.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Meanwhile, credit spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds over Treasuries are up to 13.4%, the widest gap since July 2020.
Over the last 6 months, this gauge has risen +464 basis points, surpassing the 2022 bear market peak of 12.8%.
Cracks are widening beneath the surface of the credit market.
Michael Hayes retweeted
BREAKING: 🇧🇷 Brazil’s stock market halts trading after triggering a circuit breaker.
Almost R$1 TRILLION ($200 BILLION) has been wiped out from Brazilian stocks following Lula’s unexpected election victory.
Michael Hayes retweeted
JUST IN: Meta plans to raise up to $95 BILLION to help fund its AI expansion.
The plan includes a $35B offering now and a potential $60B share sale starting in 2027.
The current offering consists of $22.5B in common shares and $12.5B in convertible preferred stock.
Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in buying up to $5B combined META shares.
The money would help fund data centers, computing power and Meta’s push to build personal superintelligence.
$META reversed an initial -5% premarket drop to trade nearly +3% higher.
Michael Hayes retweeted
Bitcoin is approaching a pretty important level here.
BTC has dropped from around $84,500 to $79,800, and the 4H chart is still making lower highs.
RSI is sitting at 36.9, below its moving average and well under the neutral 50 level.
Momentum is weak, but RSI hasn't hit the traditional oversold level of 30 just yet. So there's still room for further downside.
$79K–$79.5K is the area I'd be paying attention to now.
Lose that support and we could see another leg lower.
If buyers defend it, I'd want to see BTC reclaim $80.5K–$81K and RSI start recovering before getting too optimistic.
A bounce is one thing. A proper reversal needs confirmation.
Michael Hayes retweeted
$ANT - ANTHROPIC IPO COULD TARGET $2 TRILLION VALUATION
Anthropic has publicly filed for its IPO, with trading potentially beginning before Thanksgiving.
Market speculation points to a massive $100B offering at a $2T valuation, although the company has not disclosed its fundraising target.
That would surpass SpaceX's record $86B IPO, making Anthropic's listing a historic test of investor appetite for AI.
Michael Hayes retweeted
ANTHROPIC'S S-1 SHOWS COMPUTE COMMITMENTS RUNNING ALL THE WAY TO 2045:
• Broadcom TPU leases: ~$161.2B in rent
• SpaceXAI: up to $120.5B for Nvidia Chips
• Google: at least ~$114.5B
• Amazon: $110.0B
• Microsoft: at least $44.9B
• Nscale: up to ~$44.6B
• Lambda: ~$41.3B
• AMD: no fixed amount; >$20B if it takes the full first tranche
Plus ~$245B of payments under new and amended deals signed after June 30.
Michael Hayes retweeted
🚨HUGE: Moderna $MRNA plunges over 17%, erasing $17 BILLION, as its cancer vaccine DISAPPOINTS.
Leaked Phase 3 results showed it cut the risk of melanoma returning or death by 42%, down from 49% in its earlier trial.
Even after crashing as much as 26%, Moderna is still up over 570% this year.
Michael Hayes retweeted
$CRWD CEO warns “you’re going to see a lot of breaches happening in the coming months” following the discovery of critical PHP security flaws.
CrowdStrike’s massive threat data could become an even bigger advantage with AI now finding vulnerabilities humans missed for decades.
Michael Hayes retweeted
$NET is up over 6% after rolling out emergency protection against two critical PHP security flaws affecting software used across ~70% of the web
That's Cloudflare's network advantage in action as it can detect and block attacks across millions of websites at once
Michael Hayes retweeted
BREAKING: Bitcoin has now completely erased the losses made after PPI data came in at its highest level in almost 4 years.
8:30 AM ET: PPI comes in at 6.3% against 5.3% expected
9:54 AM ET: Bitcoin dumps $1,300 to $79,800
11:40 AM ET: Bitcoin is up $2,800 from the bottom to $82,600
Michael Hayes retweeted
BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield falls to its lowest level since September 23rd as the selloff in tech stocks gains momentum.
It appears only downward pressure on equities can push yields lower right now.
Michael Hayes retweeted
This is a rough September inflation report.
-Biggest monthly jump since May
-Higher than expected inflation AND core inflation
-Core Inflation for the past 3 months is running at well over a 3% annualized pace...that's problematic
-Inflation (3.7%) totally wiping out wage gains (3%)
Yes, high gas and diesel prices are the major driver, but also big jumps in airfares, used car prices, recreation, medical and apparel. The energy shock is spreading.
Michael Hayes retweeted
There's a 24% chance that Bitcoin will hit a new ATH by July 2027.
And I think this could happen.
Bitcoin cycle has started to accelerate, so new highs could happen sooner than expected.
In the 2018-21 cycle, it took 24 months for BTC to hit a new ATH after the bottom.
In the 2022-25 cycle, it took 16 months.
Now that BTC has bottomed in July, a new ATH within 12 months is definitely possible.
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Michael Hayes retweeted
Four Quads. Four market environments. Each producing winners and losers:
Quad 1 = Pro-Growth Positioning
Quad 2 = Growth + Inflation Hedges
Quad 3 = Stagflation Protection
Quad 4 = Defensive Positioning
See how you should be positioned every day on The Macro Show.
