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Some thoughts on Twitter of 2024.
I refuse to be a flying monkey.
jaanus.substack.com/p/i-refu…
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
🚨EU Sanctions Envoy: Irish Alumina “undoubtedly” supplying Russian Military.
That’s the tweet. Now we have it on record from the EU.
The EU Parliament voted for sanctions and now the chief sanctions envoy has said the quiet part out loud.
The EU must take sanction. ‼️
At the @iiea today, EU sanctions chief David O'Sullivan was asked about our investigation into Aughinish Alumina. He said Irish alumina “undoubtedly” ended up supplying, at least in part, the Russia's military. “I think there's no doubt the investigative journalists got it right”
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
To understand just how valuable is to Russia Trump’s pressure on Ukraine to stop hitting refineries ⬇️
NEW: Rosneft deep dive by Bloomberg News
+ Officials at Russia’s largest oil producer are concerned that even a few more months of the war with Ukraine could leave lasting damage across the business.
+ One of Rosneft’s biggest refineries, Ryazan, has been shut for more than half the time since it was first hit by Ukraine in May and has run well below full capacity when operating, according to damage assessments seen by Bloomberg.
+ Another, Syzran, has spent much of the past six months either completely shut or operating at less than a third of capacity, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg. The Tuapse refinery has been offline since April.
+ Ukraine is conducting repeat strikes on the refineries as soon as repairs are completed or nearing completion. The need to repeatedly repair damaged equipment is straining operations and causing costs to pile up to levels that Rosneft officials have privately warned cannot be sustained long-term.
+ Some plants have deliberately slowed repairs as a result, stretching work that should take days into weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
+ Efforts to protect the facilities with shipping containers, nets and steel cables have proved ineffective against swarms of drones, company plans show.
+ The damage is particularly difficult to repair when strikes hit complex secondary units, whose parts would previously have been sourced from the West. It means relying on Russian-made copies and Chinese imports that can take months to obtain and are not always compatible with existing machinery.
+ It’s put Rosneft into financial trouble. Even before the ramping up of Ukraine’s drone campaign, the company saw a “perfect storm” for its finances. Since then, its profits are down and debt is rising despite what should have been a big windfall from the Iran war.
+ Moscow Credit Bank, which is linked to Rosneft, is showing signs of distress with $8 billion of problem loans. It highlights how both Russia’s energy and banking sectors are coming under strain at the same time, a dynamic causing concern to Russian finance officials.
All this and much more in the full story here: bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
The verified record of Russia's crimes in Ukraine: case files, UN statements, fact-checks, sanctions, the cost of the war, and a calendar of where Ukraine is on the agenda. Every figure has a source, a date and a tier. Open data, 6 languages. ukraine-evidence.org/?src=x
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Ukraine evidence hub is an organization documenting Russian war crimes.
Give them a follow, as their work now more valuable than ever.
The verified record of Russia's crimes in Ukraine: case files, UN statements, fact-checks, sanctions, the cost of the war, and a calendar of where Ukraine is on the agenda. Every figure has a source, a date and a tier. Open data, 6 languages. ukraine-evidence.org/?src=x
Possibly the next Prime Minister of Estonia
🇪🇪 elections in March 2027
Always great to see worthy people enter politics
Ambassador Vseviov has a great track record and reputation
Today, I announced my decision to leave the 🇪🇪 foreign service and seek a mandate from the people of Estonia.
I do so with a firm conviction: in March, Estonians will be choosing far more than a new parliament. We will be choosing our country’s course for decades to come.
The stakes could hardly be higher. The security order that has safeguarded our freedom is under attack. Our old economic model is running out of steam. Fear is spreading. Brutality is on the march.
These are not times for mediocrity, complacency or political tinkering.
In stormy seas, standing still is dangerous. Drifting aimlessly is worse. What brought us this far will not carry us forward.
I have devoted my professional life to serving Estonia as a diplomat and civil servant. But I have come to believe that, at this critical moment, political leadership matters more than ever.
We must bring Estonia back into the political heart of Europe. Not merely to have a seat at the table, but to shape the decisions made there. We must have the courage to lead, the wisdom to persuade and the ability to bring others along.
We must also rediscover our economic ambition. A small country cannot prosper by looking inward. We must dare to compete with the world’s best, while ensuring that no one in Estonia is left behind.
Above all, we must remember that freedom in Estonia and Estonia’s freedom are inseparable. Neither can survive without the other. Both must be defended.
I believe in Estonia. We have overcome great odds before. But we have little room for error, and no time to waste.
That is why I am seeking the trust and mandate of the Estonian people. To help steer our country through the storm, safeguard our freedom and secure Estonia’s place at the heart of Europe.
The idea of ‘world peace’ is mostly associated with hippies
It’s also long been co-opted by pro-kremlin groups, like the World Peace Council and its successors, who only ever oppose Western military intervention while justifying wars elsewhere
The idea of ‘world peace’ is mostly associated with hippies.
It’s also long been co-opted by pro-Kremlin groups, like the World Peace Council and its successors, who only ever oppose Western military intervention while justifying wars elsewhere.
In reality, the closest thing to world peace is a rules-based world of sovereign nations.
As sure as the Earth is round, our two limited experiments in a rules-based world have already proven to help deliver the greatest periods of peace and prosperity in world history.
The only problem is that they’ve been too limited and too easily abused by aggressors.
It’s time now for ‘world peace’ to be reclaimed by those who start rebuilding the rules-based world in its third major iteration. No need to wait for another world war.
This won’t involve singing kumbaya or trying to hug invading soldiers committing atrocities. And it won’t rely on bullshit political theories like each country having a McDonalds or whatever ‘realists’ come up with next to justify their favourite “great powers” tearing the world apart.
World Peace depends on an international system that helps ensure aggression is never rewarded and those who would try it are not just defeated militarily, but brought to justice too.
baltictakes.com/world-peace-…
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
The idea of ‘world peace’ is mostly associated with hippies.
It’s also long been co-opted by pro-Kremlin groups, like the World Peace Council and its successors, who only ever oppose Western military intervention while justifying wars elsewhere.
In reality, the closest thing to world peace is a rules-based world of sovereign nations.
As sure as the Earth is round, our two limited experiments in a rules-based world have already proven to help deliver the greatest periods of peace and prosperity in world history.
The only problem is that they’ve been too limited and too easily abused by aggressors.
It’s time now for ‘world peace’ to be reclaimed by those who start rebuilding the rules-based world in its third major iteration. No need to wait for another world war.
This won’t involve singing kumbaya or trying to hug invading soldiers committing atrocities. And it won’t rely on bullshit political theories like each country having a McDonalds or whatever ‘realists’ come up with next to justify their favourite “great powers” tearing the world apart.
World Peace depends on an international system that helps ensure aggression is never rewarded and those who would try it are not just defeated militarily, but brought to justice too.
baltictakes.com/world-peace-…
Yeah it is cringe how @mobbs_mentality keeps twisting herself into a pretzel and attacks Zelenskyy to avoid saying the obvious thing
That Trump is on the side of russia
This is an awful, awful take, @mobbs_mentality. You are blaming Zelenskyy for something Trump has been itching to do forever, has been doing for a while indirectly, and has now done openly. It’s nothing whatsoever to do with what Zelenskyy said or didn’t say.
You lack fundamental moral courage to admit that your devotion to Trump has blinded you to the point of now blaming Ukraine for the atrocious policies of your choice for President.
Of course, I’m not surprised at all given your lack of integrity when you failed to apologize for blatantly mischaracterizing my positions too. Seems to be par for the course with you. How disappointing.
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
This is an awful, awful take, @mobbs_mentality. You are blaming Zelenskyy for something Trump has been itching to do forever, has been doing for a while indirectly, and has now done openly. It’s nothing whatsoever to do with what Zelenskyy said or didn’t say.
You lack fundamental moral courage to admit that your devotion to Trump has blinded you to the point of now blaming Ukraine for the atrocious policies of your choice for President.
Of course, I’m not surprised at all given your lack of integrity when you failed to apologize for blatantly mischaracterizing my positions too. Seems to be par for the course with you. How disappointing.
Witkoff and Kushner do not represent the United States
Should be obvious and clear to everyone by now
Rubio apparently delivered a speech which praises Nazi imperialism and perverts European history and Western idea(l)s
Good analysis by @CathyYoung63
This, by @CathyYoung63, is the piece on the intellectual travesty that was Rubio's Athens speech on Western Civilisation.
Reading that speech I found myself wondering what civilisation is this. There's no Enlightenment -- no Locke, no Montesquieu. US Cato and Cicero-loving Founding Fathers, as Young points out, abhored Julius Caesar and his destruction of the Roman Republic.
A completely bizarre take on the development of Western civilisation and its impact on the US.
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
This, by @CathyYoung63, is the piece on the intellectual travesty that was Rubio's Athens speech on Western Civilisation.
Reading that speech I found myself wondering what civilisation is this. There's no Enlightenment -- no Locke, no Montesquieu. US Cato and Cicero-loving Founding Fathers, as Young points out, abhored Julius Caesar and his destruction of the Roman Republic.
A completely bizarre take on the development of Western civilisation and its impact on the US.
Rubio’s Grotesque Defense of Western Civ by @CathyYoung63 open.substack.com/pub/theunp…
Trump’s “peace negotiations” have already gone down in history as the deadliest years for Ukraine’s civilian population since the start of the full-scale invasion
I have read dozens of outraged posts because the US special envoy Witkoff called Putin a "humanist." But no one is writing about the fact that the American negotiators are simply not doing their job. Let me explain.
Peace negotiations are important in their own right. Even if they do not lead to a lasting peace, the process itself is an opportunity to resolve urgent humanitarian issues. If, of course, the human dimension is a priority for the negotiators. But it is entirely obvious that neither Witkoff nor Kushner cares about people's fates in this war.
The Pope calls on Putin to save thousands of people from starvation in occupied Oleshky and the surrounding villages. The UN speaks about a humanitarian catastrophe and asks Russia to allow the evacuation of the civilian population. European Parliament Vice-President Pina Picierno goes on a hunger strike to draw attention to this tragedy unfolding before the eyes of the whole world.
And what are Witkoff and Kushner doing?
That's right, almost nothing.
Except for passing along greetings from Putin’s aide to the First Lady.
Thousands of people are already eating grass to survive and begging to save their lives. The Ukrainian side raises the issue of Oleshky at every meeting. And I can name dozens of such urgent humanitarian issues off the top of my head where American negotiators must be proactive.
Trump’s peace negotiations have already gone down in history as the deadliest years for Ukraine’s civilian population since the start of the full-scale invasion.
I don’t know if anyone will remember the names of Witkoff and Kushner.
But history will certainly record how American negotiators, who had the opportunity to save a huge number of people, refused to raise uncomfortable questions before "humanist Putin."
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
I have read dozens of outraged posts because the US special envoy Witkoff called Putin a "humanist." But no one is writing about the fact that the American negotiators are simply not doing their job. Let me explain.
Peace negotiations are important in their own right. Even if they do not lead to a lasting peace, the process itself is an opportunity to resolve urgent humanitarian issues. If, of course, the human dimension is a priority for the negotiators. But it is entirely obvious that neither Witkoff nor Kushner cares about people's fates in this war.
The Pope calls on Putin to save thousands of people from starvation in occupied Oleshky and the surrounding villages. The UN speaks about a humanitarian catastrophe and asks Russia to allow the evacuation of the civilian population. European Parliament Vice-President Pina Picierno goes on a hunger strike to draw attention to this tragedy unfolding before the eyes of the whole world.
And what are Witkoff and Kushner doing?
That's right, almost nothing.
Except for passing along greetings from Putin’s aide to the First Lady.
Thousands of people are already eating grass to survive and begging to save their lives. The Ukrainian side raises the issue of Oleshky at every meeting. And I can name dozens of such urgent humanitarian issues off the top of my head where American negotiators must be proactive.
Trump’s peace negotiations have already gone down in history as the deadliest years for Ukraine’s civilian population since the start of the full-scale invasion.
I don’t know if anyone will remember the names of Witkoff and Kushner.
But history will certainly record how American negotiators, who had the opportunity to save a huge number of people, refused to raise uncomfortable questions before "humanist Putin."
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
If Trump really wanted to end the war in Ukraine, he would've:
- Told Elon Musk to enable Starlink for the Ukrainian military inside Russia.
- Sent more older equipment and ammunition nearing its expiry date to Ukrainian forces, provided it remained safe and effective.
- Helped establish a no-fly zone over western Ukraine.
- Imposed harsher sanctions, including those provided under the Graham–Blumenthal sanctions legislation.
- Cracked down on Russia’s shadow fleet by sanctioning its tankers, owners and intermediaries, and coordinating enforcement with European allies.
- Cracked down on components and equipment from US companies like Texas Instruments and Ubiquiti reaching Russian weapons factories and frontline forces.
- Maintained uninterrupted intelligence sharing and missile warnings to help Ukraine defend itself.
- Allowed Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against lawful military targets inside Russia.
- Invested in Ukrainian weapons production, especially drones, air defence and long-range capabilities.
- Backed credible security guarantees to deter another Russian invasion.
- Supported efforts to use frozen Russian sovereign assets held in Belgium to fund Ukraine’s defence.
- Put more pressure on Putin and the Kremlin to force them to the negotiating table.
This would've been REAL Peace Through Strength.
Instead, he decided to become Putin's little bitch while trying to make more money for himself and his friends.
Jaanus K 🇪🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 retweeted
Going to share some interesting information here. For now, out of courtesy, without naming names.
There’s a group of politicians in Kyiv, including figures from the former pro-Russian bloc, former members of Zelensky’s political camp, and a few from Poroshenko’s, who have been actively communicating with Americans.
They’re trying to present themselves as a pro-MAGA alternative to Zelensky, hoping to secure political and financial backing in exchange for pursuing a pro-Trump agenda.
The good news is that, so far, these efforts haven’t gone anywhere, and they have relatively little support in Ukraine and even in the DC.
So far, none appears to have received any meaningful backing. However, if tensions between Trump and Zelensky continue to grow, I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington eventually starts seeing them as useful.
Yet, I don’t expect much to come of it, though. Why?
Most likely, it would just be another waste of money, much like the support for Orban in Hungary. The difference is that, unlike Orban’s political movement, there’s no united MAGA-aligned force in Kyiv. Instead, it’s a scattered group of politicians who can barely stand each other but hope to improve their own political and financial fortunes by undermining Zelensky to win Trump’s favor.
Why am I writing this? Because I have little tolerance for those who undermine my country’s security and its right to remain independent. Whether you’re Ukrainian or foreign, if you believe you can secure a privileged position by promoting Trump’s interests in Ukraine, you’re mistaken.
You’re little more than pawns in a political game, and you shouldn’t confuse being useful to Trump with earning his respect.
I want to put this on record so that when the political winds change and you try to distance yourselves from these decisions, I can remind you exactly what you supported and what you were willing to do at Ukraine’s expense.
This is the way
Rage donate to defenders of Ukraine 🇺🇦
That image of the dead baby girl in the park really made me sad and angry.
Fuck ‘em up good, @414magyarbirds.
