Jake

i really don't understand why this is still available at plus-money. there are so many reasons i would have PCA as the favorite here. i have bought in. see you in November.

the thing that i like about the BBWAA is that their view of awards voting has evolved dramatically over the last 50 years in ways that are noticeable and scrutinized and talked about. even though some individuals can make head-scratching voting decisions, i trust the group as a whole to usually get these awards right, now that we have drifted away from things like counting stats and pitcher wins being so emphasized. they have still given us some winners that i and many have disagreed with (2021 NL CY, 2017 AL MVP, 2016 AL CY, 2006 NL MVP), but there's arguments are there to be made on any of them. the further back you go, the more indefensible some of the decisions become (2005 AL CY, the CYs throughout the entirety of the 1980s, etc). but my point is, all of these decisions have been relentlessly scrutinized over the years, and it has caused noticeable change and improvement to where Felix and Degrom were able to win CYs in 2010 and 2018 with extremely mediocre W/L records, for example. i am one of the biggest MLB history nerds out there, i could rant about this stuff for hours and hours, and it's one of the reasons i was so bullish on PCA MVP with a couple months remaining in the season while the odds were still a coinflip. this panel of former relievers has undergone NONE of that change. their yearly awards are unscrutinized and irrelevant and they can mostly vote for whoever they want with no argument or backlash. that's why this sudden rug-pull from Kalshi infuriates me so much. these are fundamentally different awards voted on by very different people, and they decided arbitrarily right before the awards were announced to go with the latter rather than the former, despite the fact that this separate award HAS ITS OWN NAME, for Christ's sake. if this award was going to be settled on the results of the Mariano Rivera award, rather than the BBWAA award like every other MLB awards market on their platform, it should have stated that from the very beginning.

TB Rays -1.5 Games (vs CLE) (+130 CZRs) 1u this is a gift of a line. i've watched every single MLB game this postseason and there has not been a single series i have been more confident in than this one. the Rays are going to kick the shit out of the Guardians. if Gavin Williams pitches twice in this series, his second outing would either come in game 7 or on short rest. Guards ball and pitching chaos can only take you so far, and i think that Rays pitching is going to put the Guardians offense to sleep in this series. probably pretty square but i expected this line to be +110 at most, and i was still honestly prepared to bet it at that price. apologies for the lack of bets last series, been feeling a bit under the weather.

Griffin Jax o11.5 Outs (-101 DK) 1.01u this is a bit of a shot in the dark. Kevin Cash isn't necessarily the manager i would want to target overs for on his 3-4 starters in the postseason, but this still feels shockingly low to me. this would be too low of a line in a twice-through situation, and i really like what i've seen in a lot of Jax's recent starts down the stretch. i was honestly expecting this to be at least 12.5. it is his first postseason start so i can't play this with a ton of conviction, but with no juice i'm willing to take a shot here.