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1. Full audit of every play I've posted since Aug 23. All 44 in one spreadsheet, nothing left out.
Official record: 25-19, +7.27u
My earlier recap said +9.50u. That was wrong: a math slip in one update and a few losses I didn't count. Corrected record below 👇
2. How the sheet works:
• Units = amount risked (1u = $100 for tracking)
• Every posted play counts, including no-sweat promos and hedges
• Boosted prices are marked as boosted
• Live plays are marked as live
3. What's next: I'm slowing down on posting while I finish building my model. When plays come back, expect fewer and sharper: mostly straight bets, posted before kickoff, with closing-line value tracked so you can see whether I'm beating the market, not just winning.
4. The sheet updates with every play, wins and losses. Truly appreciate everyone who's been following along 🤝🗡️
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Prediction market lesson of the week:
Varland: 3.6 WAR, 1.27 ERA
Baker: 2.9 WAR, 41 SV
Varland won the BBWAA award. Kalshi settled on the Rivera Award, voted by ex-relievers. Baker won.
You're not betting on who's best. You're betting on who decides. 🔪
thank you, Kalshi, for failing to specify which award this specific market referred to until TWO DAYS AGO, and for NOT having it refer to the inaugural award voted on by the BBWAA (which Louis Varland won) like every single other MLB award category on your platform.
until two days ago, the "Mariano Rivera Award" title and important information description was not present on this market.
and most of all, thank you to the absolutely braindead panel of former relievers who decided the best relief pitcher in baseball this year was NOT deserving of this award.
30 mins ago, Louis Varland "NO" paid 31x
i will not get over this loss for a long time.
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2-0 UCL Sweep🧹 +.73 units
Sporting ML +120 (+156) DK boost ✅
Bayern ML +105 (+137) FD boost ✅
All time 26-16 +9.40 units 🗡️
2nd POTD will utilize FD 30% boost
I mean Bayern at +$ 🤷♂️🤝
.25u @Playbook
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2nd POTD will utilize FD 30% boost
I mean Bayern at +$ 🤷♂️🤝
.25u @Playbook
Cash Sporting ML ✅
+.39u 🤝🗡️
Using my UCL 30% all purpose boost on the Iberian side…🇵🇹
Match starts at 12:45pm et !
.25u @Playbook
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Using my UCL 30% all purpose boost on the Iberian side…🇵🇹
Match starts at 12:45pm et !
.25u @Playbook
+201 to start the month 🗡️✅ #chalky
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BANG +311 ✅🫡🏀
Using my 30% profit boost on this late night matchup in LA 🏀
3 leg min but we only need 2 players to ball🫡
@Playbook
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