Creative project. Farming QFEX while studying Lessons in there
Joined March 2014
- Tweets1.6K
- Following1.6K
- Followers1.1K
- Likes7.5K
The biggest bear case is that they don't prioritize $BAT with the card and simply keep the revenue for themselves. Their buybacks have been underwhelming over the past two years.
I think their card could become the biggest in crypto, competing with the likes of EtherFi. They have 50M DAU and 120M MAU, with their user base growing by 1M+ per month. I don't expect BAT cardholders to be as wealthy as EtherFi cardholders, so they'll need to onboard more users to make up for that.
They've mentioned using a portion of card revenue for buybacks, but it's still unclear how much, or whether they'll actually follow through.
On the community call, they said they were still looking for a provider for their crypto card. That could suggest this was a quick idea rather than something they've spent much time working on.
They have a strong privacy and AI narrative, with their privacy-first browser and AI built into search.
As for revenue and buybacks, I wouldn't expect $50M in annual buybacks. Most crypto "businesses" trade at P/E ratios of 75+ and have very small buybacks relative to their FDV. Look at Pendle, Derive, etc.
If they deliver on some of their promises, I could easily see $BAT trading above $1B FDV.
My bear case is that they rug the card and no buybacks materialize, sending BAT below $0.10.
My base case is modest buybacks alongside a profitable business that can grow and compete with the leading crypto cards. In that scenario, I'd expect atleast $600M FDV (similar to $Ethfi at ~$680M)
My bull case is that they use card revenue for buybacks and become the biggest crypto card.
They have the distribution and the foundation to get there.
The question is whether they can execute, and whether they're token aligned or let all the revenue go to equity holders.
When ATLAS launches (and liquidity is deep with good pairs), i expect distributors using Hyperliquid builder codes to switch.
The big increase in revenue, is worth the small switching costs associated with it.
Generally a lot of arbs/hedging could start to go through ATLAS (ZRO) as they could be leading in liquidity/spread/fees with their partners.
If Atlas ends up being a success, i expect $ZRO to hit double digits.
Trying @papertrade_xyz and it's really fun
I could see some people make greatcontent out of this
It also builds some suspense and more gambling to it that your position doesn't open/close instantly
After listening to this i wish b16z would do a podcast.
He's hilarious and well articulated
My full conversation with @based16z
0:19 the Hyperliquid call
5:01 almost losing his $HYPE airdrop
8:27 life after life changing money
10:12 dating a billionaire's daughter
14:37 from online poker to Crypto
16:40 two trades made his year
20:56 the Snapchat trade
27:43 Sydney Sweeney $AEO trade
31:14 posters move markets
41:42 loot and rob
44:23 advice for a 20 year old
47:23 math lore
51:49 why he has no social media
Everyone can create a plugin like this.
Really good bagwork here
Breaking: World ID plugin is already live in Codex 👀
you can now prove you're human right inside OpenAI's tools
much more to come. this may be the beginning of something big 🌍 $WLD
how to install: just tell Codex
"Install this plugin: github.com/worldcoin/world-i…"
then say "Connect my World ID" ✅
My base case for ZRO is $11B FDV
That assumes just ONE perp DEX on Atlas reaching volumes comparable to Variational or Lighter.
Bryan said that he expects ZRO to roughly make 1.2BPS on every $ traded on Atlas.
There are multiple teams ready for day 1 launch that (GTE, DefinedFi, Bullish, and TrueNorth)
If that flows through as earnings, applying a blended ~90x P/E based on Lighter and Hyperliquid implies ~$10B FDV.
Two perp DEXes doing similar volume would take that to ~$20B under the same assumptions.
Make of that what you will.
