Kit Lowe (@kit_lowe) profile picture

Global Macro at InTouch Capital. Senior Analyst FI and FX. Former interbank spot FX trader, hedge fund PM and prop shop co- ceo. @kitlowe.bsky.social

Sydney/Singapore
Joined October 2011
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Kit Lowe retweeted
Tweet of the Day
Former WSJ journo Jon Hilsenrath responds on LinkedIn ATTENTION MR. BESSENT, 2.0: YOU ARE COMING UP SHORT ON YOUR OWN '3-3-3' GOALS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been attacking financial journalists on Twitter [X] this morning. It's petty, but let's judge a man not by what he says. Let's judge him on what he accomplishes. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Bessent laid out a '3-3-3' economic agenda for his prospective administration. This was a promise to achieve annual economic growth of 3%, reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, and increase daily output of oil by 3 million barrels per day. President Trump's economic co-pilot is failing on every count: -- Growth in economic output as measured by real gross domestic product slowed to a 1.95% annualized rate during President Trump's first 18 months in office. That's a slower growth rate than the average 3.2% rate when Biden was in office, though the Biden rate was bolstered by a post-Covid pandemic recovery. The Bessent 1.95% growth rate is a touch slower than the 2.0% growth rate during Obama's eight year term in office. -- The budget deficit is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be 5.8% in the fiscal year that ends in September, nearly double the Treasury Secretary's promised rate. In order to reach 3% of GDP, the budget deficit would need to be nearly a trillion dollars smaller. Instead, it will rise next year, in part because of the cost of funding the war in the Persian Gulf. I see little evidence that the present administration, or anyone in Washington for that matter, has a credible plan to reduce the red ink that's spilling forth like a geyser from Washington on a daily basis. -- Domestic oil production averaged 13.71 million barrels daily in May, up 0.57 million from 13.14 million in January 2025. Again, short of the goal. Implicit in the promise on oil production was a promise that energy costs would ease. They have not. On one count that matters to many Americans, the economy is delivering a number with a "3" in it: The inflation rate was 3.7% higher in June that it was a year earlier, as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred personal consumption expenditure price index. I have no desire to get political, but when a politician attacks honest people who I know and respect, that bugs me. It's petty, and meant purely as distraction.
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Replying to @kit_lowe
This pretty much sums it up though (using trimmed mean for some consistency).
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Kit Lowe retweeted
This is the first article I’ve ever written with the express hope that I am wrong. People discussing the topics raised, becoming more proactive and being aware of the risks inherent to what’s happening in technology is how that happens. I’m glad people are trying to prove or disprove it. It is the first step into realizing that a lot of it has some degree of plausibility, and we should take action earlier rather than later.
Replying to @mattyglesias
I formally modeled and worked out what conditions you need for what the essay describes to actually happen. You need fairly implausible conditions on both what happens to investment and preferences. Plus no fiscal policy at all. Here is the essay write up, with all the math in a linked technical note. aleximas.substack.com/p/will…
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🚨SCOOP: Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair -- and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I'm told. Nothing is official I'm told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod. KEVIN HASSETT is out. RICK RIEDER was also at the WH today & is the other finalist. Read & subscribe: rachaelbade.substack.com/p/s…
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Talking FX shortly on @BloombergTV
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Replying to @kit_lowe
Its fine. Wives never listen to their husbands.
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Replying to @kit_lowe
Yup!
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Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 at his residence in the Vatican's Casa Santa Marta.
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NAB now: Reserve Bank of Australia cutting key rate by 50 basis points in May
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We are not at the conclusion yet but there is no doubt about where this is headed. Not a single one of Yoon's argument is surviving. Court says unambiguously, the martial law decree was procedurally and substantively unconstitutional.
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Defining a VAT to be a trade barrier isn't just questionable economics (the VAT is the same on imports and domestic production) it also basically forecloses negotiation, as the EU/others aren't in a fiscal position to negotiate away its tax base 2/
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NAB is cutting all its fixed home loan rates ahead of the expected rate cutting cycle, effective today Advertised 3-year fix from 5.84pc $NAB #ausbiz 🇦🇺🏡
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Replying to @kit_lowe
That might be the headline, but I think its more to do with Deepseek may have ended the MAG 7 golden era
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ANZ: RBA EASING CYCLE STARTING IN MAY VS FEB PREVIOUSLY
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