Director, Eurasia Group Nonresident Senior Fellow @CEPA All views are mine, not the company’s. Ex Credit Suisse, WSJ, BBC
London, England
Joined January 2010
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Russia's mkt had the longest losing streak since '97, back to '22 levels. It's an economy with no capital source but loans and the state, and a public with no way to save other than deposits — which end up funding the war. With @amenka for @ru_thebell en.thebell.io/war-chokes-rus…
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Amid the fuel crisis, in the best Soviet tradition, the Kremlin classifies the weekly stats on retail fuel prices broken down by regions and cities.
The war in Iran gave Russia’s state finances a breathing space. But Ukrainian strikes, a strong ruble and international restrictions prevented it from fully capitalising, and now the window of opportunity is closed. With @amenka for @ru_thebell
en.thebell.io/russias-oil-bo…
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here is our with @amenka take on the future of Ru Central Bank's leadership. Would Nabi go? Who is earmarked to replace her?
Scoop: Nabiullina’s successor short list
Elvira Nabiullina’s third term as Governor of the Bank of Russia expires on June 24, 2027 — and under current law, it will be her last. The president is required to submit a nomination to the lower house of parliament (the State Duma) no later than three months before that date. But the Duma’s role is largely ceremonial: in practice, the choice of Russia’s central bank governor comes down to one person — Vladimir Putin.
With roughly a year left before he must act, no name is being floated in either official or unofficial circles, a senior government official told The Bell in March 2026. “Nabiullina herself is operating on the assumption that she serves out her term with no extension,” a person close to her said.
Even so, bankers and officials are quietly circulating a short list of plausible candidates. Three names come up.
1⃣ Maxim Oreshkin, deputy head of the presidential administration. “He used to want it, but apparently not anymore — he’s comfortable where he is in the Kremlin,” a federal official told The Bell.
2⃣ Pyotr Fradkov, CEO of Promsvyazbank (PSB), the state lender that serves as the financial backbone of Russia’s defense industry, and the son of former prime minister Mikhail Fradkov. “His name probably came up because PSB has become one of the most important banks in the country. But there are no real conversations happening,” a source told The Bell.
3⃣ Andrei Kostin, chairman of VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank. “Kostin doesn’t like the idea — he’s fine where he is. Oreshkin would rather be prime minister. Fradkov would agree to anything. Nabiullina wants out, but her feelings are mixed,” according to a source familiar with the discussions.
4⃣ A fourth scenario is also on the table: keeping Nabiullina for a fourth term. “The law can always be changed,” two federal officials told The Bell with confidence. The procedural bar is not especially high — the Central Bank Law (Federal Law No. 86-FZ) is ordinary federal legislation, not a constitutional statute.
“He trusts her enormously,” a person close to Nabiullina said of Putin. Keeping an ostensibly independent central bank governor in place also serves a political function: when business allies push for cheaper credit, Putin can always tell them to take it up with her first
Join @amenka and me at @ru_thebell for an hour-long deep dive into what’s really happening in the Russian economy. We’ll assess both Vladimir Putin’s gains and the scale of his problems, followed by Q&A
📅 May 26, 2026 🕕14:30 CET / 8:30 AM EDT.
en.thebell.io/oil-at-100-eco…
Uk did 2 things. It legislated, the long-promised ban on imports of refined products made in third countries from Russian crude. Simultaneously, it carved diesel and jet fuel out of the new ban indefinitely. So much for meaningful sanctions spectator.com/article/the-la…
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Russia’s government acknowledged the bleak reality for the first time — the prospect of at least 2yrs of stagnation amid high interest rates, a strong ruble and cheap oil. It's a picture of degradation, but not a collapse. With @amenka for @ru_thebell
en.thebell.io/russias-offici…
Russian manufacturing growth is fuelled by arms procurement and the military's needs. it wouldn't be easy to reverse painlessly
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Rising oil prices benefit oil companies and Russia’s state finances. But a strong ruble and subsidies to producers to support low domestic prices gobble up a big chunk of the windfall.
💸 Drone Defence is Tax on Russian Business In 5th year of its war, the Russian military cannot even guarantee the safety of the skies over Moscow, never mind the rest of the country. Ukraine has been striking Russian oil infrastructure 1000s miles from the front lines.
Escalation is the cheapest way for legitimising further internal tightening, and redirecting public anger in 🇷🇺 Sensing vulnerability, 🇺🇦 is tempted to intensify attacks, handing even more authority to FSB. As it is, it's a 1-way loop. Me @spectator
spectator.com/article/what-p…
Russia's unemployment is at all-times low of 2.1%& In reality, this low level of unemployment should not be a source of pride, but a headache that indicates a serious problem. For the first time in modern history, Russia’s economy faces labor shortages. /MORE/
Despite sanctions, Russia’s billionaires are still getting richer. Once they were oligarchs, who could use their vast wealth to influence the state. Now, most of them are clients of the same state, with no real means to change their position. With @amenka
en.thebell.io/russias-oligar…
Top Swedish spy told FT that Russia’s economy is far weaker than it appears, that the Kremlin manipulates its data etc. He is weong, and in his eagerness to paint the picture blacker still, doing Putin an inadvertent favour. Me for @spectator
spectator.com/article/how-we…
What does Russia actually lose if Orban falls? More than you'd think: a EU veto, an OTP banking channel, energy contracts, and 15 years of cultivated political cover. We mapped it out with @amenka for @ru_thebell
en.thebell.io/what-happens-i…
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/🚨 SCOOP: Putin just held a secret closed-door meeting with Russia's top oligarchs — and asked them to help pay for the war in Ukraine. The attendees' list is classified, but sources spoke to @thebell_io — and what they shared is striking.
Here's what we know 🧵
Why Ukraine’s Russian oil strikes are backfiring
Every drone Ukraine fires at a Russian oil terminal is meant to defund Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Right now, each one may be doing the opposite.
spectator.com/article/why-uk…
Ukraine hit Primorsk and Ust-Luga this week. RTR says 40% of Russian oil export capacity is down. The goal: starve the Kremlin's war budget. But with Hormuz closed and Urals trading near $110, the arithmetic may be working in reverse. A thread 🧵
Oil, gas, Ukraine, agriculture, politics: wherever you look, Russia is winnung big from the conflict in MidEast. Russia should crave for war, long and disruptive enough to profit, but limited not to plunge the world into recession with @amenka
en.thebell.io/how-russia-win…
As Russia and Ukraine intensify negotiations, the EU is increasing sanctions pressure. Its latest proposed package of sanctions — the 20th — has several potentially effective measures, but they are unlikely to be implemented quickly. (Subscribtion) en.thebell.io/eu-tries-to-si…
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