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Joined May 2007
LIQUIDITY: Dan Loeb on the Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back @DanielSLoeb1 joins the Besties on stage in Napa! (0:00) Dan Loeb joins the Besties! (0:34) Investor journey: From message boards to a multibillion dollar hedge fund (3:15) Third Point's early days: mentors and market turmoil (8:47) Strategy shift: Event-driven to quality and AI (16:01) The art of short selling (22:15) Criminal justice reform and the Ross Ulbricht pardon Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (@EYNews) - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value. ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/age… NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. nyse.com Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. plaud.ai
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Ivanka Trump says she swam barefoot to a 1,400-hectare, off-grid Mediterranean island to scout her next project. Now, she and Jared Kushner are building a massive destination from scratch on one of the last untouched coastlines in Europe. Here is exactly what they are building. I looked into the details. The site is Sazan Island in Albania. It is a decommissioned Soviet and Italian military base that has sat abandoned for years. Through Kushner’s firm, Affinity Partners, they are investing $1.4 billion to transform the restricted island into an ultra-luxury eco-resort. To pull this off without ruining the pristine terrain, they partnered with Aman Resorts. Aman is famous for hiring master architects who integrate buildings directly into the natural topography. Major Food Group, the company behind Carbone, is handling the dining. Building a world-class destination from absolute scratch with zero existing power infrastructure is a massive logistical challenge. If they succeed, they will turn a forgotten weapons base into one of the most impressive travel destinations in the world.
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Any else find it funny that Meta renamed itself after the metaverse and is basically giving up? Wonder what the next name will be.
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Komal Sethi retweeted
Patrick (and by extension, @nic_carter) are correct. Stablecoin issuers will end up paying out all of their yield, one way or another. This will put a lot of pressure on banks that don't. They'll have to pay up. The fact that banks don't pay competitive interest on deposits was never a pre-ordained optimal design for the economy. It was more of an accident of history, fueled by the lack of better technology and regulatory moats. Today, it's more of a policy decision. The banking lobby argues this impedes credit creation, but banks are not non-profits. They make money from not paying more on deposits. So bank profits will have to go down. The world doesn't yet recognize how economically impactful such a change will be. In its most recent earnings, JPM forecast $95 billion in net-interest margin income for the next 12 months. That's more than half of its 2024 revenues. BoAs NIM is in the $60 billion range, Citi somewhat lower. Not all of it will disappear due to stablecoins, but most might, eventually. Put together, I'd estimate a quarter trillion dollars that may someday not go to bank shareholders. The world is not ready for the economic impact of this - we are talking some of our largest and most profitable corporations. More importantly, the quarter trillion that doesn't go to banks will go to corporations and individuals, the depositors. Imagine the economic impact of this - a massive stimulus if there ever was one. But of course stablecoins aren't just desirable because they'll pay yield, they also offer instant settlement. The eventual disappearance of delayed settlement is another way stables will deprive banks and other payment providers--including Stripe--of income and give it back to customers. For example, the US Government pays around $1.5 trilloin in social security benefits annually. Most of it goes out via ACH (T+2 business days), some of it via even slower methods like prepaid debit cards and checks. That's $1.5 trillion dollars, the yield on which does not go to the US government or retirees, for several days a year. We are talking billions in profit for the banking system and card issuers. Same goes for the even larger amount paid by all corporations in payroll, the lost float on your rent payment, wires that take 3 days to settle, etc etc. The current architecture of banking and payments is predicated on someone else getting the yield on your money for some period of time, and charging you transaction fees on top of it for the privilege of not getting yield. Many FinTechs offer faster settlement, but for an additional fee. The payments industry, which includes banks, has over $3 trillion in annual revenues. Thanks to stablecoins, but really public permissionless blockchains, some substantial percentage of that will someday stop going to the payments industry and instead go back to payers and payees. One of the largest sources of economic rent, eliminated. The world is not ready for this. But it will be glorious.
Good post on evolving stablecoin market structure. I would extend it further: yes, I think that stablecoin issuers are going to have to share yield with others, but this is just one instance. Everyone is going to have to share yield. Today, the average interest on US savings deposits is 0.40% (FDIC data), and $4T of US bank deposits earn 0% interest.* Things aren't better in the EU: 0.25% average interest on non-corporate deposits; corporate deposits just 0.51%.** In my view, this is going to change: depositors are going to (and should!) earn something closer to a market return on their capital. (Some lobbies are currently pushing, post-GENIUS, to further restrict any kinds of rewards associated with stablecoin deposits. The business imperative here is clear -- cheap deposits are great -- but being so consumer hostile feels to me like a losing position.) * See FRED's memorably-titled QBPBSTLKDPDOFFDPNIDP time series. ** MIR.M.U2.B.L21.A.R.A.2250.EUR.N and MIR.M.U2.B.L21.A.R.A.2240.EUR.N from the ECB.
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Komal Sethi retweeted
The Fed has consistently shown that it works directly for the banks (who own it) and asset owners and broadly for Wall Street. They have never shown any real desire to embrace an agenda that supports Main Street, the working class, the renters, etc. which is why we have record wealth inequality and we are going on year 4 of above target inflation. Not sure why Trump is so surprised they don't endorse his agenda.
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Feels like a missed opportunity for a bank to not be ready with a product to announce here.
US Banks can now: - Be validators on public networks. - Custody crypto for customers - Hold Stable Coin. This is a trillion $$$$ announcement. occ.treas.gov/news-issuances…
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This seems like the biggest issue with trumps tariffs on tariffs off process. Besides the chaos and uncertainty on the market. I trust much more in foreign countries ability to hold a grudge and turn away from the us than for the divided us ability to change behavior to prioritize the us.
One thing that strikes me as an American who's lived in Toronto/Canada for 15 plus years: Canada and other countries that are friendly to and like America are far more likely to get really pissed off at like Trump tariffs/ threats than Americans who are more likely to brush them off as negotiating points/bluster and bravado. Even populist or conservative politicians from these countries who are inclined to support Trump see this stuff as stinging slights and betrayals. This will be hard to undo and is very likely to cost the US LOTS of goodwill that it may need from these allies in the future.
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A friend asked about AI and crypto the other day. I explained what was going on today but as I explained it I had a realization. AI has no emotions, no brand loyalty, and isn't lazy. The implication of this is that the strictly lowest cost provider will win its business. This may seem small but one of the surprising things about finance is how lazy and psychology based people are. BofA and JPMorgan make crazy amounts of money because people can't be bothered to sweep to money markets or find a better bank. Crypto folks leave their money in usdt in their wallet earning nothing. Oddly 4% is not enough to get people to change behavior. AI's ruthless approach will mean crypto will beat tradfi simply because it is cheaper. And competition within crypto will become even more cutthroat.
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I have wondered when this would start happening, and been pleasantly surprised it hasn't happened yet, it is not clear to me how you solve for this problem. There are not a lot of people that can travel with a squad of folks jamming drones to protect themselves.
Let's be honest. It is only a matter of time before we see FPV drones run by "narco-terrorist sub-national organizations" (AKA the drug cartels) being used in US cities on each other, law enforcement, and "inconvenient" politicians in the traditional "lead or gold" fashion.⬇️
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Very well stated.
Fareed Zakaria is spot-on about Trump. Everything is a fucking game of squeezing blood from a turnip, especially with our allies — which is not only pathetic, but in the long run detrimental to America. 😳👇
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I have a friend who missed the existing btc run and so has been piling in mstr and slowly pulling me. It strikes me that @saylor is like the two young guys in the big short compared to the btc trade of Steve Carell. They were later to the game but ran the trade to the logical extreme and shorted the super safe stuff and wound up making more. I would call him the geniuses at magnetar but he's totally transparent about his bet.
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It seems likely public companies will buy mstr bonds before they buy bitcoin.
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I've been back in sf for a week. It seems clear Waymo/cybercab will be a premium service to Uber/lyft until it kills them.
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I was talking to my therapist and she mentioned she remebered a quote that started with "As we cease fighting everything and everyone." but didnt remember what came next or where it was from. I plugged it into chat gpt and this is what it came up with: chatgpt.com/share/6744d9d2-c…
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Two predictions. 1. Saylor will become a bitcoin bank paying you yield on your bitcoin so he can take cheap debt against it. 2. He will traunch the debt he is taking to get even better terms.
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I wonder if the right feedback loop of prediction markets will cause campaigns to course correct faster. Announce vague policy, when your odds go down. Tone it down and walk it back?
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Here's the thing that makes me sad about the Harris 25k for first time buyers. There is no good reason is shouldn't be a subordinate loan other than we are incompetent running a program like that.
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Loved this line. 'Pelosi recalled a saying she’d once come across: “It said, ‘When one day I go happily to meet my creator, he will say to me, “Show me your wounds.” And if I have no wounds he will say, “Was nothing worth fighting for?” ’ You’ve got to be proud of your wounds.” '
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Damn I started laughing too wtf
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