Cofounder and Senior Fellow at Foresight Institute @foresightinst, with an interest in longevity and life extension. Coauthor of Gaming the Future (2022).

Palo Alto, California, USA
Joined July 2009
I would guess this is true. Smart TV spying on owner
WTF, $3000 Samsung TV has an always-on mic, automatic content recognition, geo tracking, network mapping, and ships your data to Samsung + 400 partners. Bro Rooted a brand-new 2025 Samsung TV after noticing absurdly targeted ads. Firmware was locked down, so zero-days it was. Got a root shell. then found: always-on voice service, ACR, geo, full telemetry pipeline, and four separate DRM systems. This isn’t a bug, It’s the product bro.
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So clever
These are excellent - but not only because of the creativity. They double as a great intuition pump for why simulating a system doesn't mean one is importing the same causal structure of what one is trying to simulate. Even under functionalist assumptions, in the general case it isn't true that a simulation of a physical situation, even if convincing for a certain purpose, will brings together the same causal makeup that made it what it is. Importantly, one often needs to choreograph many processes who themselves have entirely different internal causal structures and causal interrelationships. Ball A hitting ball B based on Newton's laws where contact transfers momentum and energy between them is a very different process than two persons dressed in black acting as if their hands were balls doing the same thing. In the latter, the real energy and momentum of the balls are not being transfered to each other directly. Only it seems like it from the point of view of the camera and the person who isn't noticing the guys doing the dance.
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ANTHROPIC's DEPUTY CHIEF INFORMATION SECURITY OFFICER: "as bad as things have gotten in the past 4 days, they are going to get a lot worse before they get better."
as bad as things have gotten in the past 4 days, they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. security leaders, never let a crisis go to waste: please go to your boards and ask for help right now. not for ai, for the basics. (we need to hold on for ~18 months.)
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I asked Gemini and it confirmed that usually there is no ice at the poles
TIL that Earth is technically in an Ice Age How do we know this? Because there is ice at both poles. 80% of the time Earth has no ice on the poles
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Christine Peterson retweeted
We are incredibly unprepared for this
# Black October For anyone who knows me even somewhat well, it's clear that I am a 99th percentile tech optimist. However, the vibes have shifted for me quite a bit in the last 18 hours, and I feel a moral imperative to share what I'm thinking and feeling with my circles so that everyone can understand, and hopefully take seriously, what's happening right now. I think October 2026 will have many chapters written about it in the history books. You know those scenes in financial movies like Margin Call where someone realizes that they're all fucked, and no one else sees it yet? And that person feels like they're crazy, and then suddenly everyone is pulling an all-nighter in a boardroom and freaking out? Yeah, that's kind of how this is feeling right now in the SF/Bay Area/AI circles. We're 48 hours into what is being called Black October. In the last 2 days there have been several dozen cyber attacks which, in isolation, would each have been the worst to happen in an entire calendar year. Every sector from government to education to big tech and banks is being massively affected, and people are starting to freak out. In a nutshell, what's happened is that frontier AI models have gotten to a point where they are as advanced as the most sophisticated programmers, with one critical difference: they can work 24/7, and you can spin up 10,000 of them with a single command and they'll work together tirelessly until they accomplish their task. The most advanced models today are from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, whose current best technology is so good that they haven't been able to roll it out to everyone yet because of the national security risks it poses. Meanwhile, the best open source models (where anyone can just download the model weights and do whatever they want with them, uncensored) are slightly behind the frontier but still 90-95% as capable. These models, developed primarily in China, are being used by black hat hackers to wreak havoc on the Western capitalist structure. Presumably, this has been part of China's plan the entire time, and we're seeing its implications fall out in real time. In red-pilled AI circles, we've been sharing and reading papers called things like "Situational Awareness" and "AI 2027" for the last year or so, which at the time felt a bit like near-term speculative fiction. They laid out the case for why Artificial General Intelligence (AI smarter than any human at any knowledge task) and Recursive Self-Improvement (models that are able to use themselves to get better) weren't half-baked future ideas anymore, but instead an inevitable outcome of the linear progress that's happening. These papers would then talk about things like "takeoff scenarios," trying to envision how that moment would come to be and what it would be like when it happened. It would either be a "slow takeoff" that would play out over the course of months and quarters, happening subtly and only obvious to a few. Or, it would be a "fast takeoff" where it would pretty much happen instantly, like a bit flipping from 0 to 1. From everything that I can see and am feeling, we are currently experiencing the fast takeoff scenario. Beyond the crazy security vulnerabilities that have come out recently, there have also been massive breakthroughs in life sciences, fundamental computer science, materials science, and pure mathematics that have all landed in the same time frame. While I still firmly believe that AI will be a net positive for humanity, it's more clear to me than ever that the societal and individual risk is very real, and is playing out NOW. For as much conviction as I have that this is happening, the thing that's caused me to lose sleep is that I don't really know what to do about it, or more importantly, what to tell you, reader, to do about it. So, the best I can do is make a few suggestions that have always been a good idea but are more timely now than ever: Set up 2-factor authentication for everything. I use Duo. Use a password manager across your devices. I use 1Password. Get an identity protection app set up. I use Alta. Move your IoT devices to their own network. Claude helped me do this. And last, but certainly not least, if you've been avoiding leaning into AI, see this as a catalyst to wake up and start using it. Don't just use the chat mode version of ChatGPT/Claude; click that Code/Work button and see how easily you can have AI write code to help you with your job. One of the biggest vulnerabilities was in a massively popular programming language called PHP, and the prompt that set it off was literally, "Find vulnerabilities in php." This is an unprecedented time for humanity, but as we've done with many things before, we will prevail so long as we are kind, loving, and open-minded to the world. Much love.
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What!!
I asked my claude about this and it said it had shared my email 10+ times this month… including to the SEC
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Seems crazy but who knows
Sleeping with your bed facing the east or west reduces REM sleep. Sleep with your head to the north.
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Good idea
Govt should get the Big 5 labs to dedicate at least 20% compute to cybersecurity right now and subsidize part of the tokens. Chinese bots reaking havoc is the closest thing to a kinetic war we'll have on our homeland. NSA / DoW needs to lock in rn.
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Again, scary time
There is nothing to worry about. Nothing important is run on PHP or old software—except the water & electrical grid, a few government services like our missile defense systems and a handful of electrified fences at the zoo (for the lions, tigers and cobras).
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Scary time
3% of “critical” software security bugs, in all of recorded history, have been found in the last month. This is on pace to find another ~100,000 bugs this year alone, adding ~26% more vulnerabilities to the all time total Do you realize how fucking insane that is?
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A good friend of mine, all the way back from before college, once went to a party with me, and this must have been like ten years ago. He had experienced some trauma before I even met him that apparently gave him PTSD, and he’d been suffering through that without me even knowing about it for a long time. By then we’d had discussions about trauma and psychotherapy and medication and so on, and at the time he wasn’t taking any medication. He decided to try MDMA at this party to address his PTSD. I should mention that I wasn’t his therapist or anything of the sort, and I wasn’t the person who gave it to him either. We just happened to be hanging out together at this party. Now, he’s very spiritual and had this sort of belief about the purpose of this reality being to grow and learn, and definitely not that pleasure and having a good time were ever the point of being here. Of course he knew about my own philosophical takes because we used to talk a lot about philosophy, and how I believe David Pearce basically has it right when it comes to the importance of figuring out how to be animated by information-sensitive gradients of bliss. And how emotional suffering and physical suffering both come down to valence, and maybe this is what, in some sense, the universe wants, or at least what we want at our deepest levels. What was very interesting, and remarkable actually, was that when the MDMA finally hit him really well and he was having a very good time, feeling extremely relieved, and kind of working through the things he had prepared for himself, he looked at me and essentially wanted to tell me: “Oh my gosh, Andrés. I think you were right about valence. I thought it was all superficial, but I can see how this really, really matters, and how feeling good actually is one of the things that’s enabling me to process these difficulties in a much more constructive way.” And I wouldn’t say he became a David Pearce supporter just from this experience. But it was actually very interesting, and definitely not a unique occurrence, to see somebody who believed that working on valence might be a superficial quest, or even a side quest, actually be confronted with it in a first person way and go, "oh, I see what you mean now".
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Christine Peterson retweeted
🚨 DAVID M. SABATINI — THE ROLE OF SCIENCE MAGAZINE IN AMPLIFYING REPUTATION-DESTRUCTION NARRATIVES 🔱 ScienceGuardians™ will expose how @ScienceMagazine, under the editorial leadership of Editor-in-Chief Holden Thorp, repeatedly published damaging portrayals of Professor David M. Sabatini, reinforcing allegations of misconduct while he struggled to preserve and rebuild his distinguished scientific career. ⚠️ Our investigation will scrutinize the magazine's editorial framing, its repeated amplification of damaging allegations, and its reporting on @DMSabatini's prospective appointment at NYU—an opportunity that collapsed following public exposure and campus protests. Did Science merely report on the controversy, or did its coverage contribute to the institutional pressures and reputational harm surrounding Professor Sabatini? The October 16, 2026, $6 MILLION jury verdict makes these questions particularly consequential. 🚨 TOMORROW, OCTOBER 23, AT 12:00 PM ET ScienceGuardians™ will release PART I of our investigative exposé, examining Science magazine's coverage and its potential role in amplifying damaging narratives throughout Professor David M. Sabatini's nearly six-year ordeal. 🔱 ScienceGuardians™ — The documentary evidence will speak for itself. ⚠️ STAY TUNED.
🚨 DAVID M. SABATINI — FROM A POTENTIAL NOBEL LAUREATE TO NEARLY SIX YEARS OF PROFESSIONAL DESTRUCTION AND PERSONAL SUFFERING $6 MILLION IN DAMAGES — BUT WHO CAN RESTORE NEARLY SIX LOST YEARS OF AN EXCEPTIONAL SCIENTIST'S LIFE? @DMSabatini was once among the world's most celebrated biomedical scientists. His pioneering discovery of the mTOR signaling pathway transformed our understanding of cellular growth, metabolism, aging, and cancer. By 2018, he was being discussed as a promising candidate for a future Nobel Prize. In 2020, he received the prestigious Sjöberg Prize from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Then, his world began to collapse. Late 2020–2021: In October 2020, Kristin Knouse accused Sabatini of sexual harassment. Whitehead then ran an institute-wide climate survey. These steps led to an outside investigation.* * Participation from Sabatini’s lab (~40 people) was low — roughly five responses. Some lab members later said investigators pressured them to give negative accounts. August 20, 2021: The investigation found Sabatini violated Whitehead’s policies on sexual harassment and relationships. He resigned from the Whitehead Institute, was fired by HHMI, and was placed on leave by MIT. April 1, 2022: He resigned from MIT after officials recommended revoking his tenure. Later that month NYU considered hiring him; organized campus protests followed and he withdrew in early May. A scientist who had spent decades building an extraordinary research career was suddenly confronted with professional isolation, public condemnation, lost opportunities, and the dismantling of the institutional foundations supporting his research. The damage extended far beyond his appointments. It consumed years of his life, disrupted his scientific contributions, and subjected him to an ordeal whose personal consequences cannot be measured in financial terms. OCTOBER 16, 2026 — THE VERDICT After nearly six years of controversy and five years of litigation, a Massachusetts civil jury found that his former colleague, Kristin Knouse, had DEFAMED HIM AND TORTIOUSLY INTERFERED WITH HIS PROFESSIONAL RELATIONSHIPS, rejected her counterclaims, and awarded Sabatini $6 MILLION IN DAMAGES, with additional interest. His first public reaction was devastating in its simplicity: “Today I smiled for real for the first time in more than 5 years.” ⚠️ SIX MILLION DOLLARS? What monetary award can compensate for nearly six years of suffering, professional exclusion, shattered opportunities, and the interruption of a potentially Nobel Prize–winning scientific career? Money cannot return lost years. It cannot undo the anguish. It cannot recreate the discoveries that might have been made, the students who might have been trained, or the scientific advances that might have emerged. 🔱 SCIENCEGUARDIANS™ — THE ANATOMY OF A COORDINATED REPUTATION-DESTRUCTION CAMPAIGN Between May 25 and 31, 2026, ScienceGuardians™ published its seven-part investigative series exposing the mechanisms through which academic leaders can be subjected to systematic reputation destruction (🔗 see the link to the full investigative thread in the first comment): Target Selection → Recruitment of Insiders → Weaponization of Partial Truths → Media Amplification → Institutional Pressure → Reputation Collapse → Forced Resignation. The chronology of Sabatini's ordeal reveals disturbing parallels with all seven stages of the coordinated reputation-destruction framework exposed by ScienceGuardians™. For years, ScienceGuardians™ has been investigating the activities of the perpetrators we have identified within the PubPeer “PubSmear” Network Mob, alongside the damaging role that reckless or compromised journalists and editors can play in academic reputation-destruction campaigns. We are examining the extent to which these external actors contributed to the public narratives and institutional pressures surrounding Sabatini's case. Their specific involvement and any coordination must be established through documentary evidence, and our investigation will continue to scrutinize these questions. ⚠️ Malicious reputation attacks and compromised journalism are among the gravest threats to academic integrity. When allegations are amplified without sufficient scrutiny, the resulting institutional consequences can become irreversible long before the underlying facts are fully tested. The Sabatini verdict is a powerful reminder that accusations are not convictions, public condemnation is not due process, and reputational destruction is not scientific integrity. We stand firmly for the right of every scientist to fair treatment, independent scrutiny of allegations, and meaningful accountability when defamation is established. David M. Sabatini has won a significant legal victory. But no jury can give him nearly six years of his life back—or restore to humanity the invaluable scientific contributions he might have made during those lost years. @SciGuardians 🔱
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Christine Peterson retweeted
‼️ BREAKING: US lab giant Quest Diagnostics was hacked. A hacker broke into Quanum LSM, the system clients use to order tests and view results. Quest says patient health and personal data was accessed. It put the system offline and pointed clients to paper order forms.
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We are so screwed. My computer security friends have been trying to get people’s attention on security for years. No one would listen
you: 500 word, high precision, thoughtfully crafted prompt them:
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Longing to attend the Avalon Exposition at Lighthaven next weekend, including Halloween party, but can't afford it? I can get you $200 off the full event, or $50 off a day pass.
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Outrageous. Get rid of them
How bad is administrative bloat in higher ed? At MIT, the “student body has grown by 8% and its faculty by 9% since the mid-1980s. By comparison, the tally of administrators jumped by 189%.”
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Looks excellent. Saving to study later.
"We can’t “align” AI with a utility function because no complete utility function exists. Instead, we need to design AI that preserves and enhances human phronesis ["practical wisdom"]— providing information and options while keeping ethical authority with humans. This is the core of what I call the Impossibility of Closure Principle (ICP) — a framework grounded in three convergent impossibility results: * Heisenberg’s Uncertainty: Physical reality resists complete determination (ΔxΔp ≥ ℏ/2) * Gödel’s Incompleteness: Logical systems resist complete formalization * Hayek’s Knowledge Problem: Social coordination resists complete centralization Each independently shows that closure projects fail. Together, they establish that openness is constitutive of reality — not a temporary gap waiting to be filled, but a permanent structural feature." medium.com/@hurt.david/why-y…
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Total disaster for California
this California wealth tax thing is just incredible. so in October 2025, a California healthcare union proposed a "one time" 5% tax on any billionaire's wealth. the ballot measure will be voted on next month. In early December 2025, California announced that it would be a retroactive tax if passed, applying to anyone with CA residency as of Jan 1, 2026. The objective is to pay for Medi-Cal, California's incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system. (which also functions as a glorified welfare apparatus, but that's a discussion for another time). polls reveal that the CA electorate is split around 50/50 on the tax, but prediction markets only give Prop 40 a ~23% chance of passing (there are competing measures on the ballet that would nullify it). there are 200 billionaires in CA, worth collectively somewhere between $2.3 and $2.6 trillion. 5% of that is around $100b, accounting for a small amount of attrition. proponents of the tax forecasted a significant windfall, assuming only a 10% departure rate. supporters thought they were being clever with the retroactive concept. no billionares would leave CA in the few short months between the tax being proposed and the residency cutoff date, without the tax even having passed yet, right? well as it turns out, they did. a new paper [1] from two academics at Stanford called "The Net Present Value of the California Billionaire Tax Act", argues that not only did more billionaires leave due to the proposed tax than its proponents expected, but that the value of the tax, if it does pass, is actually negative. proponents of the tax only assumed 10% avoidance, that is, only 10% of the taxable base of targeted billionaires would leave CA within the very short Oct-Dec 2025 window. Jaros and Rauh, the Stanford academics, find that a lower bound of 28.6% of the taxable base managed to leave. just based on known departures, those departures total $577b in net worth, or $28.8b in potential tax lost. this of course does not capture everyone (many left without announcing their departure), so the authors normalize to departure rates estimated from other wealth tax events, and apply other discounts for litigation, arriving arrive at a figure of only $28-$36b in forecasted tax revenues. but this isn't all! all of the income taxes paid by the departed billionaires are also forsaken. the authors estimate that CA billionaires pay $3.3- 5.8b in annual income taxes. they assume a midpoint of $2b lost in annual collections from departed billionaires. the net present value of that lost income stream is -$68.9 billion. so when you add it all up you get: + $30b one-time tax windfall (estimated) - $69b in present value of lost future income taxes = - 38.9b overall net present value of the tax of course, this analysis is highly estimate driven. the authors simulate the parameters 100k times and find a negative NPV of the implemented tax 85 percent of the time. and if the tax doesn't pass, which it's not looking like it will, California still ended up losing at least $577b in departed net worth, and they have permanently poisoned the well with entrepreneurs who will now worry about future wealth taxes. [1]: nber.org/system/files/workin…
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