Many people are starting to pay attention to #Turkey’s role in #Venezuela. But as someone who has studied this relationship for more than a decade, I can say that none of this really surprises me. Lack of transparency has been a defining feature of Turkey-Venezuela relations for years. After Maduro discovered Erdogan and Turkey, the relationship grew closer and closer, partly because Maduro needed economic lifelines to keep his regime afloat, especially when it was struggling with liquidity. The two countries developed a kind of “win-win” cooperation through mechanisms that often lacked transparency. Some of these activities came under scrutiny over potential US sanctions violations. For example, U.S. officials raised concerns that private jets were being used to transport Venezuelan gold to Turkey in exchange for cash or food, potentially helping the Maduro regime bypass U.S. sanctions. In 2019, then-Senator Marco Rubio warned Turkey against becoming “accomplices” in the illicit shipment of Venezuelan gold. I look at today’s developments through the same lens. It is possible that Maduro and other regime figures have built financial connections in Turkey, potentially giving them options for the future. If some of these figures are eventually forced to leave Venezuela and look for a safe haven, Turkey could be one of their destinations. That’s why I’m paying close attention to the unusual private jet traffic between Turkey and Venezuela. Given the history of this relationship, I don’t see these developments as isolated events.

As countries across Latin America deepen their ties with this new version of Chavismo, remarkably little has changed in Venezuela to justify the rapprochement. Diosdado Cabello, a longtime Chavista figure associated with years of human rights abuses, remains interior minister. Rodríguez's brother, Jorge, heads the National Assembly. The new defense minister previously led the intelligence service and has been sanctioned by the United States, Canada and the European Union over repression under his command. The human rights group Foro Penal still counted 344 political prisoners in September, and there is still no established timetable for elections. Ten months after the U.S. operation to capture Maduro, the main obstacle to democratization is now the political and institutional system that has survived him. responsiblestatecraft.org/ve…