I once walked off the end of a pier. he/him
Portland, OR
Joined November 2007
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Ben Matasar retweeted
Very little Electoral College bias in 2024:
When the NYT Needle estimates shut down, Trump was on track for a 1.5 point national popular vote win.
His margins in PA/MI/WI ranged from 1.1 points to 2.1 points.
Pennsylvania was the tipping point state that got Trump to an Electoral College majority.
Ben Matasar retweeted
ABC News has projected that Proposition 139, protecting abortion rights, will pass in Arizona, overturning the state's 15-week ban. Similar measures have also passed in Colorado and Maryland, where abortion was already legal.
Ben Matasar retweeted
Donald Trump is probably the favorite to win the popular vote at this point. I can't say many in either party would have expected this outcome even a year ago.
Ben Matasar retweeted
Pretty clear picture emerging in the rust belt. In whatever's completed, Harris is just underrunning Biden all across the board, no matter the region or the demographic. Now we wait to see what it looks like in the remaining suburban and urban vote, but she'll need a big swing.
Ben Matasar retweeted
Still very early, but in counties where 90%+ is reporting there's a pretty clear pattern that Trump is holding or improving upon his 2020 margins in rural areas.
Ben Matasar retweeted
Florida, Georgia, and Virginia are known for counting their ballots *very* quickly.
So if you have stuff to do, do it in the next 12 minutes.
Ben Matasar retweeted
Totally true, nobody knows a single damn thing until actual numbers come in this evening. There will be a lot of totally useless stuff about long lines until then and I just ignore all of it.
"Election Day is its own special type of hell. If you've never worked on a campaign, you might think it would be the most hectic day of the campaign. In reality, it's the opposite." -- @Lis_Smith in "Any Given Tuesday"
Ben Matasar retweeted
Over the next 48 hours, some of you will treat predictors who said 52/48 like gods and predictors who said 48/52 like morons, and I want to say in advance how deeply I hate you.
Ben Matasar retweeted
And as @maxtmcc and I wrote today, there is a long history of Selzer being right when nobody else was. So this isn’t me saying she’s wrong — only that somebody is going to look very stupid at the end of election night. Her, or everyone else. split-ticket.org/2024/11/02/…
Ben Matasar retweeted
there was a certain "holy s--t" aspect to the 2014, 2016, and 2020 final Selzer polls, but this takes the cake
Ben Matasar retweeted
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING
The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa Poll of the election cycle shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points in a state he previously carried twice.
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
Ben Matasar retweeted
Abortion bans kill another woman. On the day of her baby shower, Nevaeh Crain went to the ER bleeding & feverish. She was diagnosed with sepsis, a deadly infection - but her fetus still had a heart beat. She was sent home. After her 3rd ER visit, she died.
propublica.org/article/nevae…
