expectations for round 4 of swiss + bingo card! DK and GEN already qualified. HLE are in an unexpected position being 1-2, meaning they have to win 2 series to qualify - they are not that favoured against G2 due to their disappointing performance (even though I agree G2 should lose this matchup) and they could have annoying matchups against KC/TL/LYON in round 5. LYON is in a good spot though - I believe they are favoured against IG's play style. TheShy should run over Dhokla, but the same cannot be said for Wei vs. Inspired and JiaQi/Meiko vs. Berserker/Isles. it should be a close matchup, with LYON being favoured.

also, KC and TES are almost exactly tied: KC: 53.009% TES: 52.989% so that's why KC is above TES. if you favour recent form, TES is more likely to qualify.

AL 2026 international wins this swiss stage: 0 ! AI larpers rise up #Worlds2026

now, will I be crucified for overhyping TSW, or rewarded for hyping LOS? let's see.

DAY 3 OF SWISS HLE vs IG - HLE 31.6% ❌ TES vs G2 - TES 37.1% ❌ DK vs MKOI - DK 63.9% ✅ GEN vs LYON - GEN 74.8% ✅ Hit rate: 2/4 (50.0%) Expected: 2.70 wins; actual: 2 Calibration gap: -17.52 pp this was a pretty bad one, but it's inevitable for these to happen!

❤️⭐️

I won't speak. I won't curse LYON.

I'm not sure if I'm happy or not 1. TES will not be the 1st team eliminated from worlds 2. G2 is indeed disappointing

extremely uncharacteristic errors by HLE this game specifically from Zeka - once in the early game going too far with 0 possible follow-up, then in the drake fight, also with 0 follow-up possible delight ulted 1 target more than once too amazing performance by meiko this game.

timezones are weird, so - days 3/4 bingo card!!

updated expectations for the rest of the Swiss Stage after day 2. GEN is now the team most likely to go 3-0, at 74.8%. after TSW’s second loss, qualification chance is 9.2% (−31.53 pp vs. pre-event!!!) round 3: HLE, G2, DK, GEN, T1, BLG, LOS, TL. quarterfinal qualifiers: GEN, T1, DK, LYON, MKOI, HLE, BLG, G2. BLG and G2 now occupy the last two projected spots at 64.1% and 62.7% to qualify, with KC just outside at 53.7% - arguably things are locked like this. very happy to see DK rising, as they are my favourites in this worlds.

DAY 2 OF SWISS MKOI vs CFO - MKOI 62.9% ✅ KC vs LYON - LYON 41.9% ❌ HLE vs GEN - GEN 57.5% ✅ DK vs T1 - DK 22.8% ❌ TES vs AL - TES 51.6% ✅ LOS vs G2 - G2 59.8% ✅ IG vs TSW - IG 42.6% ❌ BLG vs TL - BLG 62.4% ✅ Hit rate: 5/8 (62.5%) Expected: 4.87 wins; actual: 5 Calibration gap: +1.63 pp

oh my GOD I'm so happy LYON won, although that's not what I expected to happen at all Berserker really performed as he should. Inspired played fights really well too, and Dhokla didn't come close to choking happy for my boys