Paul C Tan (@paulctan) header
Paul C Tan (@paulctan) profile picture

🇨🇦Engineer, Entrepreneur. Driving my Teslas on FSD. Posts on life, ai, robots, and carnivore.

Toronto, Canada
Joined March 2009
Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)Photo by Paul C Tan (@paulctan)
Significant. Signal.
Replying to @TSLAFanMtl
We were wrong. It is vastly higher than that.
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No doubt about it… Everyone knows what happened. John Thune let it happen.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
Catching a giant rocket falling from space
Starship is preparing for catch Flight 15 is targeting to launch as early as Friday, November 13, pending regulatory approval → spacex.com/launches/starship…
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Elon Musk reposted a message Friday saying that in hindsight it was a mistake for SpaceX to send Ukraine thousands of free Starlink dishes and millions of dollars a month in free service at the start of the war. What began as internet access for civilians became the backbone for autonomous killing drones. And now if they don’t support military use, they get skewered for it in the press. Musk has been consistent on this. He’s already restricted Starlink use for offensive drone strikes because that was never allowed under the terms of service. Ukraine got free satellite internet to keep communications running after Russia invaded. It wasn’t a blank check for military targeting. The free aid was generous. Turning it into a permanent expectation that SpaceX fund and enable Ukraine’s drone war is not. Musk is right to draw the line. He’s made it clear that saving lives, and humanity, is his goal. Anything that goes against that doesn’t interest him. Be thankful the richest man on earth has these morals. It’s a blessing.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
Starship is preparing for catch Flight 15 is targeting to launch as early as Friday, November 13, pending regulatory approval → spacex.com/launches/starship…
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Paul C Tan retweeted
The White House ordered a review of all @elonmusk’s contracts, directing agencies to terminate any that weren’t needed, overpriced, or could be bid to a competitor. Every single one came back as “KEEP.” wsj.com/business/trump-aides…
Exactly 😂 Tesla has no government contracts and President Trump ended federal incentives for electric vehicles. SpaceX contracts with the government are BOTH the best product AND the lowest price! Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less then 5% a year from now. Happy to cancel any that the government doesn’t want. Just say the word!
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According to Grok, if the $500B ARR is achieved, the stock should have a current price of $350-$500, not $135.
Just finished listening to Ron Baron's fireside with Elon. A few things that stuck: SpaceX's best-guess ARR path is still enormous. Over $100 billion by the end of 2026, over $500 billion by the end of 2027, and a trillion no longer treated as fantasy. He was careful to call it a guess, not a promise. On compute: the first StarMind machines, co-designed with NVIDIA, could start launching around Q3 2027. The logic is simple. If you try to add something like 200 gigawatts of AI a year on the ground, you're asking the U.S. grid to grow about 40% every year. That isn't happening. So the big iron goes to orbit. Terafab is real estate with a punchline. Production in Grimes County near Texas A&M, research at Giga Texas, built in phases, and possibly a trillion dollars over time. The scale target is roughly thirty times next year's global AI-chip power capacity. And yes, he played the terror / Terra / Tera joke. On spectrum, he didn't dance: if SpaceX can use spectrum ten times better than a legacy telco, acquiring that telco for the licenses is on the table. And on hardware, he put Tesla and SpaceX at the top of the class outside China, and wasn't sure who'd be third even if you include China. Optimistic, aggressive, and consistent with what he's been saying. Worth the hour.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
Replying to @XFreeze
When we unveil the details of the Starmind computer next year, it will blow people’s minds
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Paul C Tan retweeted
“Twelve-month all-cause mortality after initial COVID-19 vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech or mRNA-1273 among adults living in Florida: Statewide cohort study” Now appears as peer-reviewed study in Global Epidemiology! In closely matched cohorts of nearly 2M Moderna & Pfizer vaccinees in Florida, the latter (Pfizer) showed substantial higher all-cause, cardiac, non-COVID and COVID mortality post 1st mRNA COVID vaccine dose. These results were robust to adjustments on pre-vaccination cardiac hospitalizations as well as SARS-CoV-2 infections. This study adds to a growing evidence that the mRNA COVID vaccines of Moderna and Pfizer may have different non-specific effects. Recent study “In Vivo Blood Kinetics and Transcript Integrity of Three mRNA–Lipid Nanoparticle Vaccines in Humans” @acsnano showed significant differences in systemic persistence of nano-lipids and spike mRNA between Moderna and Pfizer mRNA COVID vaccines! @MaryanneDemasi @FLSurgeonGen
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Paul C Tan retweeted
Exactly 😂 Tesla has no government contracts and President Trump ended federal incentives for electric vehicles. SpaceX contracts with the government are BOTH the best product AND the lowest price! Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less then 5% a year from now. Happy to cancel any that the government doesn’t want. Just say the word!
Elon please send this January 1: Dear Senate & House Democrats, Many of you criticize my companies receiving federal contracts. I hereby offer to cancel. Please publish a list of each contract to cancel with any required agency consent, and we will cancel promptly. Sincerely, Elon Musk
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Paul C Tan retweeted
SpaceX will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship on the upcoming flight. If both are successful, it will mark the first time that all parts of an orbital rocket return to Earth intact. This is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary.
More than a dozen flight tests and years of development, with countless hours worked by SpaceX engineers and technicians, all come down to this: the first orbital Starship launch carrying advanced Starlink satellites bound for space. Watch “Go For Orbit” and experience the moments behind flying the most ambitious Starship mission yet
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Compare these two. Yeah. Keep it up, elbows up.. We are in the FO stage..
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Paul C Tan retweeted
There are no words that I can use to express the extent to which I loathe @BernieSanders. He has parasitized taxpayers for 50 years and offered less than nothing in return. A degenerate and lobotomized fool. Go back to renew your marriage vows in the Soviet Union, and please stay there.
🇺🇸 Bernie Sanders on the changes he foresees for America after the midterms: "The American people want a tax on billionaires so that we can have universal child care, we can make public colleges tuition-free, and we can build millions of units of low-income and affordable housing. It's time that the billionaire class, many of whom pay an effective tax rate lower than a truck driver, start paying their fair share of taxes." Writer: Mhedi
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"Huuuuuge upward revision, the opposite of what I thought was going to happen.."
🚨 HOLY CRAP! The US October jobs report just DESTROYED "expert" expectations, coming in at +165,000 jobs to the estimated +59K NEARLY TRIPLE 👏🏻 CNBC: "WOW..." 🔥 Factory jobs — +19,000 Unemployment rate slightly below expectations This is great news. Time to keep this ROLLING paired with lower gas prices, and we are on track for a 2028 comeback.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
🚨 HOLY CRAP! The US October jobs report just DESTROYED "expert" expectations, coming in at +165,000 jobs to the estimated +59K NEARLY TRIPLE 👏🏻 CNBC: "WOW..." 🔥 Factory jobs — +19,000 Unemployment rate slightly below expectations This is great news. Time to keep this ROLLING paired with lower gas prices, and we are on track for a 2028 comeback.
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And another thing
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I did a thing
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One good thing from all this politics that is happening: We learned what not to do on the Moon and Mars.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
Exactly! When I grew up in Communist China, I was surrounded by completely brainwashed people, including myself. Now in the US, I’m surrounded by people even more brainwashed than the communists I grew up with in China. Communism thrives on a dumbed-down population. And the dumbing down is systematically carried out through schools, the media, and Hollywood!
When I grew up in the USSR, I was surrounded by people who were completely brainwashed. Now, when I live in the US, I’m surrounded by people who are even more brainwashed than communists I grew up with in the USSR. It’s insane.
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Paul C Tan retweeted
True
After DOGE, Elon came to a conclusion most people missed. He tried to reform the state from the inside. He failed. And he said it plainly: the government can't fix its own deficit. Nobody in power actually wants to cut. The machine protects itself. So he drew the only logical conclusion. If the state can't be reformed, there are only two ways this ends. Either global bankruptcy. Debt keeps compounding, interest payments eat the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight. Or robots. AI and robotics grow the economy so fast that the debt becomes manageable, and abundance makes the old fights over scarcity irrelevant. Here's the part almost nobody sees. For two centuries, capitalism has had a marketing problem. Its gains are real but slow and invisible. 2% growth a year doesn't feel like anything. Your life gets better over 30 years and you never connect it to the system that did it. Meanwhile, the left's promises feel immediate and concrete: a check, a subsidy, a benefit. That's why the left wins on promises even when it can't deliver them. Capitalism produces the wealth, socialism takes the credit. Robots break that asymmetry. When productivity doubles in a few years instead of a few decades, people will see it. Things get cheaper, services get better, opportunities appear, in real time. For the first time in history, people will connect capitalism and their rising standard of living directly, almost instantly. The causal chain becomes visible. And that changes everything politically. So there are two scenarios. Scenario one: we stay in the current inertia. No breakthrough, or a breakthrough we regulate to death. The debt wins. Living standards stagnate, then fall. A frustrated electorate turns to whoever promises the most, and that pushes toward a hard collectivist left. But collectivism fails, as it always does. And when it fails, the most organized, most disciplined collectivist force left standing isn't the old left. It's radical Islamism. Bankruptcy, then communism, then something worse. Scenario two: robots win. Abundance arrives, and it arrives visibly. The link between free enterprise and prosperity becomes obvious to everyone. And this is the key point: it becomes obvious to everyone, including the minorities the left was counting on. Because their long-term incentive is the same as everyone else's. A kid in the suburbs gains infinitely more from a booming, abundant West than from a bankrupt state handing out promises it can't keep. Abundance is the most powerful integration machine ever built. That's the Western renaissance. The West doesn't need to win the culture war by arguing. It needs to win it by delivering. And for the first time, it has the technology to deliver fast enough for people to notice. The race isn't left vs right anymore. It's robots vs bankruptcy.
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