I sat down with @wordsofrizdom to break down my process, why scalpers won’t beat algos, and how I approach markets differently.
Watch here 👇
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Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
If you want consistent returns, trading needs to become your one true priority. When was the last time you actually reviewed your own trade history instead of just moving on to the next setup? Or went back to study what the market did after a big move, not just watched it live? Nobody accidentally develops that instinct. The traders who make it were obsessed with these two habits for years until pattern recognition became second nature.
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
Hedge funds are getting absolutely crushed right now and it helps explain why the stock market has been behaving so irrationally lately.
According to Goldman Sachs, global hedge funds just experienced one of their broadest daily declines since COVID. Fundamental long/short funds lost 1.4% on Thursday, while funds focused on technology, media, and telecommunications fell an average of 2.7%. More than two thirds of hedge funds finished the day in the red. Now, these numbers might not seem that significant compared to what we're seeing in individual stocks, but remember, hedge funds are supposed to manage risk. Many of these funds are designed to make money whether the market goes up or down, yet they're getting hit on both sides of their trades.
So here's what's happening. Most hedge funds own stocks they believe will go higher while simultaneously betting against stocks they expect to fall. Normally, one side is supposed to help offset losses on the other. But right now, their long positions are getting crushed as technology and AI stocks sell off, while some of their short positions are moving higher, forcing them to buy back shares at a loss. And this is where things get interesting. When hedge funds start losing significant amounts of money, they're often forced to reduce their exposure to the market. That means selling positions, raising cash, and reducing leverage. The problem is that they don't necessarily sell companies with deteriorating fundamentals. They often sell whatever they can sell quickly.
This creates a situation where even companies reporting strong earnings, growing revenue, and improving fundamentals can get dragged lower simply because institutions need liquidity. We've been seeing this across semiconductors, memory, AI infrastructure, and other high growth sectors. What's even more interesting is how bearish hedge funds have become. Goldman Sachs reported that short exposure was approaching five year highs, with short selling significantly outpacing long purchases. In other words, a lot of institutional investors are positioning themselves for further declines.
But there's another side to this. When too many investors are betting on the same outcome, even a small market recovery can trigger a significant reversal. If heavily shorted stocks begin recovering, hedge funds may be forced to buy back shares to close their bearish positions. That buying pushes prices higher, potentially forcing even more funds to cover their shorts. Now, does this mean we've officially reached the bottom? Not necessarily. Forced selling can continue longer than people expect, especially when leverage is involved. But I do think it's important to understand that a lot of what we're witnessing right now isn't necessarily being driven by deteriorating company fundamentals. A significant portion could be related to hedge fund positioning, leverage, and institutions being forced to reduce risk.
There's a massive difference between a stock falling because its business is struggling and a stock falling because institutions are being forced to sell. And that's exactly why I'm paying more attention to what these companies are actually reporting than what their stock prices are doing on any given day.
This selloff is a lot closer to the bottom than we think.
According to Jefferies, over the past 10 trading days, its clients have been net sellers of more than $1B worth of technology stocks on 7 separate days. This chart tracks the buying and selling activity of Jefferies’ clients over a rolling 20 day period. When the purple line is above zero, investors are buying more than they’re selling. When it’s below zero, they’re selling more than they’re buying. Right now, that number has collapsed to approximately negative $11B, making this one of the most extreme periods of technology selling we’ve seen in the past two years.
For comparison, even during the major selloffs earlier in 2025 and 2026, the selling pressure wasn’t consistently this severe. And remember, this is just one investment bank’s trading activity. This also helps explain why companies across semiconductors, memory, power, and AI infrastructure have been getting absolutely crushed despite reporting strong earnings and continued demand. A lot of this selling isn’t necessarily happening because the fundamentals have changed. Large institutions are reducing exposure, managing risk and raising cash. When everyone starts selling at the same time, even the best companies get dragged down.
Now, does this mean the bottom is definitely here? Of course not. Nobody knows that but historically, when selling becomes this extreme, it can be a sign that we’re getting closer to exhaustion. Eventually, the forced selling slows down, buyers return, and stocks can recover. My personal view is that we’re likely getting much closer to a bottom, I’m not changing my long term outlook on AI because hedge funds and institutions are aggressively selling technology stocks. The demand for compute, memory, power, and AI infrastructure hasn’t suddenly disappeared. I’m investing with years in mind, not weeks.
Looking forward to this
Eric Berlin always has a balanced and measured take 👇
🎦 TRADE TO BLACK — Presented by @FlowhubCo
🚨🕓 *LIVE* at 4pm ET
▶️ Judge Rejects Bid to Reopen the Rescheduling Hearing
🎙️ Eric Berlin, @Dentons Cannabis Attorney
🎙️ @AdamStettner, CEO of @FundCanna
🇺🇸🌿🧺 $MSOS
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I’m a full-time trader competing in the Money Manager division of the U.S. Investing Championship
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Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
Not to be a doomer but not sure if now is the best time to add trillions of dollars in fresh equity supply for the market to absorb
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
Momentum Factor from +70% to Zero
Goldman's High Beta Momentum pair (GSPRHIMO), which was up ~70% at its June highs, "has erased all of its YTD gains, driven by the AI correlated long leg."
$TLT Treasuries trading like a safe haven asset again 👇
$ORCL - ORACLE INVESTOR DAY MEETING TO BE HELD OCTOBER 28, 2026
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
Just to give you a sense of what a slaughterhouse L/S was seeing today, the Crowded L/S factor pair had the 2nd worse day (by a hair - almost the worst) since Gabe Plotkin was getting run TF over in late Jan 2021 in Gamestop
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
Our fate rests in the ALJ’s hands now $MSOS 👇
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
$MSOS retesting the anchored VWAP from when the stay on the cannabis rescheduling hearing was first announced
One step at a time 👇
Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM retweeted
JEFFERIES DESK:
“.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days.
.. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
1) Price Cycle Monitor -> ES & NQ Lose Key Moving Averages 📉
2) VIX Futures Inverted 🛑
3) RSP Silver Lining 👼
Tonight's research note is LOADED with insight. You don't want to miss it!
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