full-time prediction market trader
anywhere!
Joined May 2024
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well, it's a start :P
probably gonna do more thinking about charity, but i didn't want to put it off for more than a few months. givewell seems like a reasonable default
ALT givewell screenshot confirming 50k donation
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this is also just nonsense? if you have huge influence on the market that's a good thing! you trade first, publish your public forecast (with disclosures that you have positions on) and watch the profits roll in
Nate Silver doubts that one of the best election forecasters in the world is a profitable trader. Guys like @PoliticalKiwi ,@iabvek @nonsenseking , @tehspeleeng , @carnitastaco , and @LanceupperPI are my heroes when it comes to election modeling.
non-PM traders are in such a different world, it's kind of wild
Everyone hates it when I point out that
- systematic trading is hard
- you can’t prompt your way to a profitable strategy unless you already know what you’re doing
- most people capable of making a success of it for their own account would do much better getting a job at a good trading firm instead
But this is literally the highest value thing I do in this site. Every person who takes my advice is hundreds of hours and tens of thousands of dollars saved!
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The good thing about Polymarket’s U.S. exchange is that people’s accounts could never get drained because it’s impossible for even normal users to withdraw their own money let alone somebody else withdrawing it
sometimes I wonder about the people that come up with these advertisements
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I think this is a good thing for prediction markets in the long term.
We don't need people getting burned by Brian Armstrong rattling off strikes in jest on an earnings call, people submitting questions on a podcast to influence the speaker to say a word, etc. It's a terrible look on prediction markets and part of how we ended up with this CFTC decision.
There is a legit community of people who are interested in forecasting things that the President (or other major politicians) will say. Folks have been doing this kind of analysis for a long time, without the financial incentive. I'm happy that it's looking like we at least get to keep that part
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I hate ADHD discourse because like. I cant hold a job. I cant go to school. I live in filth. Every day I spiral over my inability to do ANYTHING. And I have to just live knowing that no one believes I have a disability and that my failures are all from not trying hard enough
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im convinced one of the big reasons adhd specifically faces this kind of skepticism and dismissiveness is that, as a disability of executive function, it raises questions that threaten to erode the foundations of everything we assume about free will, motivation and responsibility
