full-time prediction market trader
anywhere!
Joined May 2024
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this is also just nonsense? if you have huge influence on the market that's a good thing! you trade first, publish your public forecast (with disclosures that you have positions on) and watch the profits roll in
Nate Silver doubts that one of the best election forecasters in the world is a profitable trader. Guys like @PoliticalKiwi ,@iabvek @nonsenseking , @tehspeleeng , @carnitastaco , and @LanceupperPI are my heroes when it comes to election modeling.
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The good thing about Polymarket’s U.S. exchange is that people’s accounts could never get drained because it’s impossible for even normal users to withdraw their own money let alone somebody else withdrawing it
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I think this is a good thing for prediction markets in the long term.
We don't need people getting burned by Brian Armstrong rattling off strikes in jest on an earnings call, people submitting questions on a podcast to influence the speaker to say a word, etc. It's a terrible look on prediction markets and part of how we ended up with this CFTC decision.
There is a legit community of people who are interested in forecasting things that the President (or other major politicians) will say. Folks have been doing this kind of analysis for a long time, without the financial incentive. I'm happy that it's looking like we at least get to keep that part
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I hate ADHD discourse because like. I cant hold a job. I cant go to school. I live in filth. Every day I spiral over my inability to do ANYTHING. And I have to just live knowing that no one believes I have a disability and that my failures are all from not trying hard enough
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im convinced one of the big reasons adhd specifically faces this kind of skepticism and dismissiveness is that, as a disability of executive function, it raises questions that threaten to erode the foundations of everything we assume about free will, motivation and responsibility
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not to be the friend thats too woke but i genuinely think this article is ableist. labeling fidgeting, awkwardness, etc as signs of distrust rather than common behaviors in ppl with adhd/autism/anxiety/etc is extremely shitty
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This might have been one of the misbonders. -$1million or more overnight. @CitadelSportsLV
