Head of Research @optimist | The Tree Grows | ex @messaricrypto https://nitter.gq/t.co/Zw0CG4d7tr
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Joined January 2025
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abundance retweeted
The unfortunate reality is that every biohack in the universe gets completely obliterated by doing sprints 3x a week and it's not even close
abundance retweeted
this is honestly the main bull case rn
and in the dark forest, privacy is the best form of security
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
abundance retweeted
Ct talking about "7 fig hell" again, here is a sobering point of view that will bring people back to reality on this topic
If you had a NW of $3m and lost it, here is how long it would take you to earn it back via a salary:
$100k -> 46 years
$250k -> 26 years
$500k -> 13 years
$1M -> 6.5 years
so if you lost everything and then landed a comfy gig for 500k/yr it would STILL take you 13 years to get back to the $3m mark
put some respect on your NW no matter what level you are at. It is very hard to make it back if you lose it
abundance retweeted
Today we’re launching markets on Business Sector KPI’s.
Kalshi originally launched KPI markets to provide investors with direct exposure to the underlying events that move stocks.
If you had a thesis on Tesla’s Q4 car deliveries, instead of just buying or shorting the stock as a proxy, these markets enabled you to trade directly on the number of deliveries.
But what if your thesis isn't about a single company, but rather a broader, sector-wide trend?
If you are bullish on the adoption of robotics, delivery apps, or content streaming, you could buy a basket (ETF) of individual stocks in each sector, but in doing so, you become exposed to the external variables that influence stock prices.
Our new Sector KPI markets enable users to trade on aggregated performance.
For example, if you have a view on the mobile adoption of AI, you can now trade on the combined monthly downloads for Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.
We have KPI markets for aggregated credit card spend, point of sale data, and foot traffic, with more to come.
These markets offer a new way to express an opinion and, of course, hedge risk.
abundance retweeted
Industries aren't measured by headlines. They're measured by what people buy, where they go, and what they download.
Today @Kalshi announced its sector KPI indices, settled on Prisms from Carbon Arc as an official data provider.
Explore Carbon Arc’s Prisms here or sign up for Carbon Arc's platform today. 30 days free with 𝗣𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗠𝟯𝟬: carbonarc.ai/prisms
Read the announcement: news.kalshi.com/p/announcing…
#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #data
abundance retweeted
Kimchi is emblematic of society's deep rot on physical, spiritual, and etheric levels.
In the past, the aristocracy knew their place on the totem pole. Multilingual, learned, esteemed. Yes, lots of sex parties, but not without notoriety. Instead, we're given a tiny 110lbs Hansect boy who would have been a court eunuch for a speculative tip in a previous dynasty who has gained his wealth by unscrupulous means. Perhaps the most disappointing aspects are how the wealth is spent.
With a liquid 8 figures, many things become possible. Private jets, multiple whores on rotation, a gang of scragglers to follow your every beck and call, but what you see from kimchi is perhaps the most goyed out expression of wealth possible. Goods with little to no value beyond resale, whores that look good for the camera but clearly would not survive an all night sexscapade on stimulants and peptides (very fun), and all of them clearly there for the material world, like vampires to a freshly slain maiden. Say what you will about dear Beerus and AnubisDAO, but at least that 60m was spent on vintage cases of wines and a nice New York penthouse. If you're going to crime, crime well, crime properly.
Our generation now worships these people as if they carry the gospel of enlightenment itself, as if they hold the keys to the kingdom. But it is all a farce. This is PT Barnum on a scale hitherto unheard of. Man-made horrors that we witness as the world continues to kick the can down the road.
abundance retweeted
This way of life is vaporous. It is transactional on every level, there is 0 warmth and every aspect of it is manufactured, hollow, empty.
To aspire toward this is to be a fish aspiring towards filling one’s belly with a lure.
Do not fall into the trap.
abundance retweeted
basically everything in your personal life should be pre-computed and require ~0 thinking. if you're thinking lots daily outside of work it's more likely that it's a defense (intellectualization/rumination/rationalization) than actual thinking EXCEPT IF (see screenshot)
ALT https://meditationstuff.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/anti-akrasia-checklist-and-techniques/
abundance retweeted
5.5% of the FWA token has now been burned from protocol usage, with 0.2% burned just yesterday.
Nearly 75,000 NFT purchases on v2
Fake World Assets
abundance retweeted
Robinhood Chain being “dead” is more about a lack of investable products and consumer applications that go beyond memecoins, less so attributed towards being “just another chain” with no growth potential.
Previous cycles produced insane returns from multibillion-dollar runners purely off the wow effect of bleeding-edge technology being sold to an audience that assumed it to be the epitome of crypto. Layer 2s and 3s that scaled Ethereum that much further garnered insane premiums simply because their innovations *felt* important.
In 2026, that game is solved. We understand far more about the limitations, or lack thereof, of the chains we want to build on. The next game is producing useful products that generate cash flows and actually accrue that value to the underlying token, all based upon the narratives that Robinhood as a business actually cares about.
Robinhood can be summed up into three main narratives: Agentic trading through Robinhood MCP, tokenized stocks with real utility(beyond pairing them with memecoins), and perps through Robinhood's trading products. Each narrative, while seemingly different, draws from the same impetus: that Robinhood wants to control all trading, and broader finance as a whole.
Agentic Trading on Robinhood has already been quietly taking off. By July 29, nearly 100,000 customers had opened Agentic Trading accounts, with over $100M in assets under custody, only two months after launch. The question now is how much of that brokerage demand translates into useful onchain applications, and who will build them.
It’s an interesting spot given we know Robinhood’s playbook, yet there is no investable tokens or products on the chain that captures the opportunity. It’s entirely possible that the current “leaders” are just imposters, placeholders before the real Robinhood cycle arrives, led by applications that produce value and compete in games that haven’t already been solved.
Godspeed @optimist
abundance retweeted
agreed patterns are good, but as I see it, CARDS is undervalued for 4 reasons:
1) ppl perceive it as a mediocre equity proxy
2) its illiquid
3) ppl aren’t aware of the company or how much revenue they make (anecdotal but surprised how many liquid ppl i speak with dont know CARDS)
4) the revenue is perceived as not durable
1 is getting fixed via buybacks and more transparent tokenomics as of the last month, 2 is still a struggle very hard to buy inst size (arguably bullish), 3 and 4 are being disproven by collector crypt demonstrating they can earn consistent revenue even in a bull with memecoins sucking liquidity and attention.
TLDR I don’t think it’s crazy to say this time could actually be different
abundance retweeted
some thoughts on $cards
at current prices i’m bullish on collector crypt and the collectibles industry in general but i think that sector is starting to show signs of froth, and the blow off top rally may be coming soon.
“at the top signs of froth are indistinguishable from signs of adoption” - zhu su
the ripmart integration will likely be a zero to one moment for collectibles as it increases the distribution for tokenized collectibles massively. current demand for collector crypt comes primarily from crypto native speculators but ripmart opens that up to the broader collectible market participant.
ripmart significantly reduces the friction and pains associated with the current collectibles system. the average collectibles investor is not familiar with the instant liquidity that collector crypt offers. it’s now easier to sell collectibles than ever. that reduced friction goes both ways. previously that friction forced people to hold for longer and that illiquidity is what pushes prices up exponentially.
if prices stop going parabolic does the hype continue?
unlikely. at this point most of the people entering the collectibles market are doing it from a profit perspective because they see other people on tik tok making insane gains on their pokemon cards.
if ripmart gains traction amongst the average collectibles investor, we’ll likely see a massive spike in volume, which will be good for collector crypt because all that volume is routed through their platform. however, i don’t see how that volume is sustained on a longer time frame. people will argue that it’s onboarding new capital to collectibles, but the more likely scenario is that it just gives existing collectors a new way to trade collectibles. minimal new money in.
i continue to hold cards but will be looking for signs to start taking profits as we go deeper into the collectibles mania. think some of the top signals the nfts market showed near the top will appear in the collectibles market as well.