Rishabh Bhandari

The Choice is Yours and Yours Alone The tariffs debate is just a symptom of a larger issue. Tariffs aim to reindustrialize America? So why is this important, and what are the options? Artificial intelligence is changing the game. By 2030, 30%-40% of U.S. service jobs will be gone – lawyers, creatives, analysts. Why is this important? There is a 50-60% probability of social unrest if unemployment in America hits 15% (compared to 3.9% today). So, what's the answer? Does America revive its factories or pay its people to survive? Simply put, does America reindustrialize or implement a Universal Basic Income (UBI)? Factories could absorb 10-15 million workers, preventing this crisis. Here's what it would take: • Weaken the dollar by 30-40% (like the 1985 Plaza Accord) to make American goods affordable globally • Accept a 20% drop in living standards – cheaper iPhones - but pricier gas and meds • Overcome the challenge of getting younger generations in America to work in factories, when 78% prioritize work-life balance On the other hand, there's UBI – sending monthly checks ($1,000+/adult) funded by taxes on Big Tech/AI profits. Here are the pros and cons: • 50% chance of stabilizing inequality in America • Creates inflation risks and a debt doom loop • Would cost at least USD 3.5 trillion/year, doubling America's deficit The biggest risk is that UBI becomes a "band-aid" without retraining, creating a lost generation in America. Neither path is easy – reviving factories demands societal sacrifice, while implementing UBI needs political miracles. But doing nothing? That's a 100% guaranteed crisis. "The choice is yours, and yours alone." - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)

Having built a successful career as an entrepreneur and investor, I've been reflecting on where the next alpha lies. The reality is that easy alpha is a thing of the past. With no mean reversion in sight, the disruptions from demographics, multipolar geopolitics, debt, and advancements in tech/AI are too significant. We’re in the midst of a phase transition. In this environment, the simplest play is betting against mean reversion—favoring assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. The challenge? No one truly knows what the new equilibrium will look like post-transition. Betting on the right new equilibrium carries high risk but also the potential for massive returns—perhaps even the next 100x. For investors, a balanced approach might look like holding beta assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin) with a smaller allocation to high-risk super-alpha plays targeting the new equilibrium. For traders, navigating volatility during the phase transition could present the biggest opportunities.