Something has shifted in the polls. @reformparty_uk and the Conservative Party have now crossed over, even on the averages, and I think Reform UK's slide from here is inevitable. I've written about the reasons before, but they bear repeating. Scandal follows them everywhere. The policy work is sloppy, and they flip-flop on the economy from right to left and back again. They call themselves the only genuine party of the right, then announce policies that read like something from @dilmabr-era Brazil - handouts dressed up as a programme. When they campaign, they lie, and on X they get community-noted so often they've racked up more notes this year than every other party combined. And they're cry-bullies: happy to misquote everyone else, but get their knickers in a twist the moment it happens to them. The @ITV documentary on racism in the party was, honestly, a lousy piece of work. But Reform UK's response to it told you more than the film did. E.g. senior figures like @danny__kruger and Robert Jenrick wouldn't condemn racist remarks aimed at @KemiBadenoch by a Reform UK-affiliated Raheem Kassam. That matters. Underneath all of it is something harder to pin down, but voters feel it. Reform UK is a kind of political antimatter. There's nothing positive about it - it exists purely as the anti-Tory party, a shadow that feeds on voter anger with the Conservative Party. That's why truth-telling doesn't feature in their campaigning. Lying and smearing is the only viable strategy they have, because the moment the anger fades, so do they. If Badenoch succeeds in renewing the Conservative Party - neo-Thatcherite economics, cultural patriotism, and actually persuading the voters she will deliver on a manifesto this time - there is simply no need for Reform UK. Antimatter only exists for as long as the resentment does. And being antimatter warps you. If you believe the anger that birthed you gives you carte blanche to do whatever you like, honour and ethics stop applying. That's a futile strategy, and it tells you everything about the people behind it. They don't have Britain's interests at heart; they want power. They don't have the talent to build or govern - only to campaign, make noise, put on a show. If you care about Britain and you're on the right, the renewed Conservative Party is the party of builders: a proper intellectual foundation, a committed and positive leader in Badenoch, and a mechanism to field the most right-wing manifesto in decades, with candidates publicly contracted to vote it through. That's the party to support.