Distinguished Fellow and Program Lead, Middle East Program, @Stimsoncenter & Non Resident Senior Fellow @SAISHopkins FPI @FPI_SAIS. These views are my own.

OH, Washington DC & Beirut
Joined February 2011
📽️مقام‌های ارشد پاکستان، ترکیه، عربستان و ایران پس از دو ساعت بحث و تبادل نظر در نشست مشترک، محل جلسه را ترک کردند. وزیر خارجه که در ابتدای این نشست حضور داشت به همراه مسعود پزشکیان به منظور شرکت در هشتمین اجلاس سران مجمع کشورهای صادرکننده گاز، راهی مسکو شد.
🔵آغاز نشست چهارجانبه ایران، پاکستان، ترکیه، عربستان 🔸محسن رضایی، دبیر شورای عالی امنیت ملی، خالد بن سلمان، وزیر دفاع عربستان، عاصم منیر، فرمانده ارتش پاکستان و همچنین ابراهیم کالین، رئیس سازمان اطلاعاتی ترکیه در این نشست حضور دارند.
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“It is too early to judge the results of this summit; however, it does not appear that trust has replaced distrust or cooperation has replaced competition! In the current Middle East, the logic of summits is more about managing crises and tensions or avoiding their consequences than resolving them!” #Tehransummit
چند نکته درباره نشست چهار جانبه تهران ۱. ایران با برگزاری این نشست خارج از چارچوب پیمان مکه موافقت کرد. در واقع، تهران این ابتکار را در قالب «نشست تهران» پذیرفت، نه پیمان مکه! ۲. ایران نشست تهران را در چارچوب ایده امنیت درون‌زای منطقه‌ای تعریف کرد. به همین دلیل، پرونده‌های منطقه‌ای از جمله یمن، لبنان، فلسطین، امنیت خلیج فارس و تنگه هرمز در دستور گفت‌وگوها قرار گرفت. ۳. در این نشست درباره کاهش تنش‌های منطقه‌ای و پایان جنگ نیز گفت‌وگو شد؛ با این حال، موضع قبلی ایران در برابر آمریکا و شروط هفت‌گانه تهران تغییری نکرد. ۴. در این نشست هیچ گفت‌وگویی درباره پرونده هسته‌ای ایران انجام نشد. ۵. یکی از نتایج احتمالی این نشست می‌تواند پذیرش نگرانی‌های امنیتی ایران و ترتیبات موردنظر تهران در تنگه هرمز (توافق ایران و عمان) باشد؛ البته به شرط آنکه عربستان حسن نیت خود را نشان دهد و مانند قبل کارشکنی نکند! ۶. ایران در پرونده یمن برای میانجی‌گری و کمک به حل بحران آمادگی دارد؛ اما انصارالله شروطی دارد که تا زمان پذیرش آن‌ها از سوی عربستان، جنگ را ادامه خواهد داد! ۷. طرفین در این نشست نگرانی‌های خود را درباره ماجراجویی‌های اسرائیل در منطقه به اشتراک گذاشتند؛ اما این به معنای برخورداری از اهداف و دستورکار واحد نیست! ۸. بسیار زود است در رابطه با نتایج این نشست قضاوت کرد؛ اما به نظر نمی‌رسد اعتماد جایگزین بی‌اعتمادی و همکاری جایگزین رقابت شده باشد! در خاورمیانه کنونی منطق نشست‌ها بیشتر برای مدیریت بحران و تنش یا دوری از تبعات آن است تا حل آن‌ها!
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DC folks: The Biden administration’s horrific choices on Gaza + beyond are still shaping US policy — while the policymakers responsible are trying to deflect blame. Join us tomorrow at noon @StimsonCenter to discuss lessons & a more humane path forward: stimson.org/event/inside-the…
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Randa Slim retweeted
Apart from the substance of the discussions, what was interesting about the meeting was that it was hosted by Mohsen Rezaei rather than Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This is also a sign of changing internal dynamics within the Iranian political system, in which Ghalibaf no longer seems to play the central role he played during the war and shortly afterward, especially in the negotiations that led to the Islamabad MoU. Now, everything appears to be channeled through the SNSC and its secretary, Mohsen Rezaei. This does not mean that Ghalibaf is no longer influential, but his relative position within the system seems to have weakened in favor of more confrontational figures such as Rezaei, Vahidi, and others.
I was quoted in this @CNN report by @MostafaSalemCNN on today's high-level security meeting in Terhan: Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to secure them. Unless these countries bring something new to the table that could change the calculations in either Tehran or Washington, the meeting is unlikely to produce a substantive breakthrough. For now, it looks more like a last-minute attempt to prevent the resumption of war than the beginning of a new diplomatic process. edition.cnn.com/2026/10/26/m…
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Randa Slim retweeted
The meeting in Tehran was a big PR win for Iran. Major regional powers went to Tehran to ask for help on Yemen. And Iran likely laid out it terms for that help. It could yield results. Inviting Iran to join Mecca Alliance as some had anticipated did not happen. In fact Iran is calling the meeting the Tehran Summit. It sounds like Iran is envisioning a different regional arrangement one that Iran wants to define and play a central role in. And per Rezaie’s comments after the meeting Iran’s vision which is clearly aimed at keeping US out if the region does not easily square with the relations of the three Mecca Alliance partners with US.
"If our four countries sit together, many of the regions problem can be solved. This trip would be the beginning of a real transformation in the region." "Despite the American threats, these three major countries came to Iran and talk to us. That shows that the American have no more impact on the world." - Major General Mohsen Rezai, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council
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Hear Hear. “ It is us, in the Gulf, who ultimately bear the responsibility for devising, developing and implementing a new regional security structure. The time has come when it no longer makes sense just to blame everyone else. We need to begin a new regional dialogue on Gulf security, and we need to do so before other solutions are imposed on the region which would effectively consolidate the pattern of dependency and exclusion for which we urgently need to find an alternative. What is needed, instead, is a new and inclusive framework, involving all eight Gulf littoral states".
Significant even brave intervention by Oman foreign minister @badralbusaidi at Cambridge calling for the Gulf States to form a non-aggression pact with Iran and Iraq. Says US should no longer be primary provider of security in region, adding external partners have imposed the most damaging of the priorities - "the requirement that Iran be excluded. Not just excluded. Worse. Positioned as the threat against which regional security had to be organised." He argues "What holds us back is that issues which ought to be handled at a regional level by the states of the Gulf themselves, are made more complex, more intractable and sometimes simply impossible to resolve because the region's security arrangements are insufficiently developed. "And they are insufficiently developed because they have relied for too long on the involvement of external powers. "The complications which stand in the way of successful resolutions to both the Iranian nuclear issue and the question of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are simply the latest effects of an unstable combination of power projection and dependency in the Gulf. "In other words, the nuclear issue and the Hormuz issue are both impossible to resolve because external powers continue to define the terms of engagement, while regional powers are unable to take collective responsibility for making their own security arrangements and reach a consensus on them". Says Iran "has for nearly half a century been systematically excluded from playing any meaningful role in the security arrangements of the region. "An exclusion with profoundly negative consequences, not just for Iran, but for the region as a whole". He says "Instead of a genuine security structure designed to maintain stable relations between the eight states of the Gulf, an unstable regional system has been constructed on the entirely false perception that there is a fundamental regional antagonism between Iran and the Arab states of the Gulf. "There is no such fundamental antagonism. There are problems, yes, of course. But the plain fact is that Arabs and Persians have lived in peace around the Gulf for centuries. It’s not a matter of whether you’re friendly or hostile to Iran. "Today, Persia is a fact, 93 million people and three thousand years of history. Roughly half of the Gulf littoral. "Any Gulf security architecture that doesn’t include them is inherently unstable. It’s structurally unsound. And recent events expose the terrible cost of allowing the false perception of antagonism and exclusion." "It is us, in the Gulf, who ultimately bear the responsibility for devising, developing and implementing a new regional security structure. The time has come when it no longer makes sense just to blame everyone else. We need to begin a new regional dialogue on Gulf security, and we need to do so before other solutions are imposed on the region which would effectively consolidate the pattern of dependency and exclusion for which we urgently need to find an alternative. What is needed, instead, is a new and inclusive framework, involving all eight Gulf littoral states".
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Regional order is no longer something the Middle East waits for. It is being built from within. At @setavakfi, we are launching Middle East: Order from Within, a new research program on the geopolitics, geoeconomics, security and governance of the region setav.org/en/middle-east-ord…
📢 Web Panel | A New Security Moment in the Middle East Another cycle of conflict, or an order built from within? The panel will discuss how the Iran war and the growing interconnection of conflict theatres are reshaping regional security, and whether regional states can take greater responsibility for producing their own security as external guarantees become less predictable. It will also assess how far regional ownership can work in responding to the Gaza crisis and in state-building in Syria and Iraq, and how cooperation and competition among the region's leading actors can be managed. 🗓️ 28 October, Wednesday 🕔 17:00 (GMT+3) 💻 youtube.com/watch?v=pmjZiFf6… 🎤 @abaabood @AbdulazizOSager @muratyesiltas Moderator: @alimuratkursun
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the state of US electoral politics.
There's some difference of opinion re: Nov. 3, but less than most cycles in the past. Even the most optimistic non-insane Rs are like, "All these Senate races are toss-ups." Even the most optimistic non-insane Ds are like "We like our odds, but we'll believe it when we see it."
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Randa Slim retweeted
There's some difference of opinion re: Nov. 3, but less than most cycles in the past. Even the most optimistic non-insane Rs are like, "All these Senate races are toss-ups." Even the most optimistic non-insane Ds are like "We like our odds, but we'll believe it when we see it."
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I was quoted in this @CNN report by @MostafaSalemCNN on today's high-level security meeting in Terhan: Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to secure them. Unless these countries bring something new to the table that could change the calculations in either Tehran or Washington, the meeting is unlikely to produce a substantive breakthrough. For now, it looks more like a last-minute attempt to prevent the resumption of war than the beginning of a new diplomatic process. edition.cnn.com/2026/10/26/m…
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According to this, Putin is hosting the Emir of Qatar and the Iranian president tomorrow
الكرملين: بوتين يستقبل أمير قطر والرئيس الإيراني غدا #العربية_عاجل
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#Statement | In continuation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s role in reinforcing regional and international dialogue and peace, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that the visit of HRH Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Minister of Defense, and representatives of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries to the Iranian capital, Tehran, to meet with senior Iranian officials, comes as part of the ongoing efforts of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries to de-escalate tensions between the parties to the current crisis, encourage dialogue and diplomatic solutions, and support the mediation efforts undertaken by the State of Qatar and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
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See a clip from my new doc "Night Flower," featuring the former AIPAC official at center of a major espionage scandal. See the full documentary at Zeteo.com
“I admit that freely. I did pass [intelligence] on to the Embassy of Israel.” Watch this clip from our documentary, ‘Night Flower: Inside AIPAC’s Fight for Influence,’ in which former AIPAC analyst Keith Weissman admits to passing intelligence to Israel. Link in replies.
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🔵آغاز نشست چهارجانبه ایران، پاکستان، ترکیه، عربستان 🔸محسن رضایی، دبیر شورای عالی امنیت ملی، خالد بن سلمان، وزیر دفاع عربستان، عاصم منیر، فرمانده ارتش پاکستان و همچنین ابراهیم کالین، رئیس سازمان اطلاعاتی ترکیه در این نشست حضور دارند.
علی باقری: مقام‌های ارشد عربستان، پاکستان و ترکیه به تهران سفر می‌کنند 🔹 معاون دبیر شورای عالی امنیت ملی با تاکید بر اینکه هدف از سفر این مقام‌های ارشد رایزنی و گفت‌و‌گو با سرلشکر محسن رضایی پیرامون امنیت منطقه‌ای است، گفت: خالد بن سلمان وزیر دفاع عربستان، ژنرال عاصم منیر فرمانده ارتش پاکستان و ابراهیم کالین رئیس دستگاه اطلاعاتی ترکیه در سفر به تهران در نشست گفته شده، حضور خواهند داشت.
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🧵کیهان برزگر در برنامه «میز دیپلماسی» مطرح کرد: 🔹دیپلماسی ایران باید پیشنهاددهنده باشد نه صرفاً پاسخ‌دهنده 🔹«نشست تهران» یعنی منطقه به برقراری ثبات گرایش دارد 🔹بی‌اعتمادی متقابل، نقطه ورود به دیپلماسی را دشوار کرده است 🔹ایران باید ابزارهای چانه‌زنی‌ خود را افزایش بدهد irna.ir/xjYzdx
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جنبلاط: السبيل الوحيد للتوصل إلى نزع سلاح حزب الله هو الحوار معه وربما إيجاد تسوية وعلى أن يحظى هذا المسار بدعم إيران وإسرائيل
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Randa Slim retweeted
Lets keep expectations minimum from this engagement. A key driver of this move is the possibility restart of US-Iran conflict and likely Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. Such an occurence will compel Mekkah pact partners to enter the conflict something they want to avoid. 1
Top officials from the Mecca Pact countries Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination — Saudi foreign ministry official 
    Saudi Arabia will be represented by Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkey by Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin, the official said.
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Randa Slim retweeted
Today’s visit should be used to lay the foundations of a “West Asian Security Link" WASL would be an inclusive regional network built on non-aggression, mutual assurance and shared prosperity. Security in our region cannot be imported. It must be built together, by its own people
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The region owning the negotiation path in a war not of its doing.
هدف زيارة المسؤولين الثلاثة من تحالف مكة إلى طهران: 1. خفض التصعيد 2. تغليب لغة الحوار والدبلوماسية 3. دعم جهود الوساطة التي تقوم بها قطر وباكستان بين إيران والولايات المتحدة.
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