Rob Hawcroft

Isaias May Have Made the Move Abiy Was Waiting For Deutsche Welle reports that Eritrean troops are moving deeper into central Tigray, marking a major escalation in a conflict increasingly drawing Ethiopia and Eritrea toward direct confrontation. So far, Abiy has restrained Ethiopian forces from directly engaging Eritrean troops crossing the border, despite the sharp rhetorical escalation between Addis Ababa and Asmara. He also refrained from using airpower against TPLF leaders who fled into Eritrea. If he was waiting for Isaias to make the first unmistakable move, that moment may now have arrived. Isaias appears to have moved first despite explicit warnings from the United States and the European Union, both of which have called for respect for Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and urged external actors to avoid steps that could widen the war. If Eritrean forces are now operating openly deeper inside Ethiopian territory, it will become increasingly difficult for the international community to demand restraint from Addis Ababa without acknowledging Ethiopia’s right to defend its territory. Continued restraint could also become politically and militarily difficult for Abiy if Eritrean forces keep advancing while Ethiopian forces are ordered not to engage them. A direct Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation is therefore becoming increasingly difficult to avoid. The longer Eritrean forces remain or advance inside Ethiopian territory, the greater the pressure on Addis Ababa to respond militarily. The Ethiopian parliament may therefore soon be pushed to consider a formal declaration of war.