It suits the Kremlin to have Washington believe that a deal with Putin is just around the corner. One more meeting, one more concession, one more phone call. And while the Americans wait for a peace deal, Russia keeps waging war. Russia gets concessions. Ukraine gets pressure. Kushner has again demanded that Ukraine stop striking Russian oil refineries. This works well for the Kremlin: Washington is already making concessions to Russia while demanding concrete concessions from Ukraine. As long as Moscow keeps hopes of a deal alive, the US may hold off on new sanctions and persuade Kyiv to accept additional terms for the sake of successful negotiations. Talks can go on forever. Even while the war continues. Discussing a new document or a possible summit allows American mediators to report progress toward peace. Russia retains direct access to Washington and the opportunity to sell its version of why the war began and what it would take to end it. No luck with peace? Let’s talk business. Dmitriev has reported discussions about joint projects, including nuclear-powered data centers. Walking away from the talks would then mean giving up the benefits the US administration hopes to gain. Open-ended demands allow Moscow to keep bargaining. Without a definitive list of Russian conditions, every round can end with statements about progress and the need for further consultations. Meanwhile, Moscow can keep adding demands. Take Putin’s October 16 statement about a “security zone” in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, which he does not intend to discuss in peace negotiations. Russia maintains an additional territorial demand while simultaneously signaling its willingness to meet with the US. In St. Petersburg, watch what Russia actually agrees to do. Which strikes will it stop? When? Who will verify this? What security guarantees for Ukraine will it accept? Without this, another “very constructive conversation” will simply mean the Americans have had their hopes raised again. They will leave to prepare for the next meeting, and Russia will keep waging war.

Steve Witkoff has arrived in St Petersburg for a meeting with Putin. Lavrov said that Moscow was not expecting a miracle from Washington, the United States will at best remain competitors for Russia.