Freedom is to stand alone, unattached and unafraid
Joined February 2016
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Shell 子皮 retweeted
Israel is a cancerous tumor that destroys humanity.
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.
Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.
We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.
Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
A 53-year-old man having a stroke just days after being briefed on and condemning highly classified military plans to crush Iran following Tuesday’s elections.
I call bullshit. They’re taking out anyone who opposes fulfilling the plans for Greater Israel.
BREAKING: US Senator Chris Murphy hospitalized following a stroke, per his office.
This comes just days after being briefed on highly classified military planning on Iran to restart the war after the midterms, where he called Trump's plan "insane."
"I will just say this: their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law," he said four days ago.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
严重关注
转塔克·卡尔森：“在以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的压力下，特朗普政府可能在未来几天内对伊朗发动核打击。
打击目标将是伊朗中部的皮卡克斯山（Pickax Mountain）。以色列情报部门声称，伊朗政府已经在那里重新启动了核浓缩计划。美国现有武器库中，没有任何常规武器能够穿透300英尺厚的坚硬花岗岩，摧毁据称正在进行铀浓缩活动的地下隧道。唯一的军事选择就是核打击。内塔尼亚胡一直在竭力推动这一行动。
一位知情观察人士说：“比比（内塔尼亚胡的昵称）每天都为这件事给特朗普打电话。”
内塔尼亚胡已经陷入困境，走投无路。
上周的选举结果出炉后，除非特朗普直接干预以色列政治，促成内塔尼亚胡与其他政党达成协议，使其在以色列议会获得61个席位，否则他就无法组建政府。
如果做不到，他就将失去总理职位，面临身败名裂、调查，甚至牢狱之灾。
内塔尼亚胡必须与特朗普保持密切关系。他需要这场战争。
为此，他向自己在特朗普政府中最亲密的盟友施加了最大压力，其中包括国防部长皮特·赫格塞思和美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀。
两人都反对通过谈判结束这场被他们严重搞砸的战争，并且都在推动重新展开大规模军事行动。
国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫也在追随内塔尼亚胡的路线，民主党领导层同样如此。
在最近一次有关这一问题的会议上，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马表示，他反对目前正在多哈起草的伊朗和平协议。
美国在中东的其他长期盟友，则对战争进一步升级的前景感到恐惧。
9月27日，内塔尼亚胡秘密飞往阿布扎比，试图拉拢阿联酋加入他的游说行动，支持对伊朗发动最后一击。
阿联酋拒绝了。
经过八个月的冲突，海湾国家的经济已经摇摇欲坠。全球能源和化肥市场同样如此，而且短期内不可能恢复。
全球共有大约850艘用于将石油从生产国运往世界其他地区的超级油轮。仅在10月份，就有11艘在霍尔木兹海峡遭到严重破坏。
按照这样的速度发展下去，一场全球性经济大萧条已经迫在眉睫。
核打击将使这种破坏急剧加速。
如果在皮卡克斯山实施地面核爆炸，产生的放射性沉降物将污染波斯湾，使一亿人的饮用水供应受到放射性污染。
而这些还只是该地区可能立即面临的部分后果。
世界其他地区同样无法幸免。
迄今为止，除了美国，没有任何国家曾在战争中使用过核武器。
有些国家也想这样做。
美国如果对伊朗发动核攻击，将开创一个新的先例。
俄罗斯方面已经向至少两个其他国家的政府表示，如果美国对伊朗使用核武器，俄罗斯也就可以不再受到约束，对乌克兰使用核武器。
巴基斯坦和印度也可能受到诱惑，对彼此使用核武器；朝鲜也可能对首尔采取同样行动。
一旦发生第一次核打击，第三次世界大战将不可避免。
而这场战争将是短暂的，也是终结一切的。
几个月来，我们一直在浑然不觉地走向这一时刻。
自今年2月以来，特朗普政府一直在悄悄修改美国的核武器使用原则，使所谓的“战术核武器”更容易被首先使用，也因此增加了实际使用的可能性。
华盛顿的两党似乎没有任何人对此感到不安。
现在，我们已经站在核战争的边缘。
密切关注事态发展的观察人士表示，特朗普很可能在下个周末之前决定是否使用核武器。
那就是11月7日，距离现在只有六天。
值得肯定的是，他仍在犹豫。
目前，特朗普正在听取副总统JD·万斯，以及他的特使兼好友史蒂夫·威特科夫的意见。
两人都认为，与伊朗达成协议是可能的。
他们是对的，尽管谈判不会简单。
伊朗人向来以难以谈判著称，无论在什么情况下都是如此。而自今年2月伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊及其家人遇害以来，伊朗政府内部的一些势力变得更加激进。
经过几十年的孤立，即使是伊朗相对温和的领导人，似乎也不太理解西方的决策机制。
例如，德黑兰普遍存在一种看法，认为美国政府控制着以色列。
但总体而言，与伊朗决策者交谈过的人士表示，伊朗内部存在一种共识：战争继续下去对所有人都没有好处，达成协议是值得的。
到目前为止，还有一个群体从未被征询过意见。
那就是全世界的普通民众。
如果特朗普在内塔尼亚胡的推动下，于下周发动核打击，数以亿计的人以及他们的孩子将因此丧命。
现在，是他们站出来发声的时候了。**说明：**以上仅为原文翻译。文中关于美国即将对伊朗发动核打击、内塔尼亚胡的政治处境、俄罗斯的核武器表态等重大说法，均属于原作者的陈述，并不意味着这些信息已经得到独立核实。”
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.
Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.
We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.
Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.
Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.
We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.
Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
🚨
• 🇹🇬 𝐅𝐚𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐆𝐧𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐛𝐞́ : « Vous avez certainement établi un record … J'ai vu le nombre de réunions que vous avez eues hier. Et vous sembliez moins fatigué que nous ».
• 🇷🇺 𝐕𝐥𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐫 𝐏𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐞 : « Chez nous, on dit que le temps passé avec des amis ne compte pas dans les années de notre vie. »
Shell 子皮 retweeted
🚊 🇪🇸 Hoy estoy muy decepcionado con el país donde nací.
Viajo ahora mismo en el Shinkansen por centésima vez, en este caso desde Tokyo a Nagano, y reflexiono sobre el reciente y horrible incidente en la línea de alta velocidad Madrid-Sevilla.
¿Cómo es posible que haya habido tantos accidentes y fallos en el sistema ferroviario español durante el último año? ¿Cómo es posible que Japón, un país con actividad sísmica continua y una infraestructura extremadamente compleja, especialmente en grandes ciudades, consiga mantener trenes de hasta 18 años de antigüedad intactos funcionando a velocidades por encima de los 300km/h, sin retrasos de un solo minuto (virtualmente no hay retrasos salvo por condiciones inesperadas como tifones, terremotos…), sin un solo graffiti en cualquier tren, sin un solo elemento de la cabina roto, con asientos de terciopelo sin una sola mancha (absolutamente increíble), sin traqueteos (en España aún no he montado en un tren AVE sin batiboleo), con ventanas impolutas…
Todo ello moviendo a 170 millones de pasajeros por año.
Y me pregunto yo: ¿Cómo aceptamos esto, teniendo en cuenta que el contribuyente español paga efectivamente más del 50% de su salario en impuestos directos o indirectos? ¿Cómo aceptamos este estado y cómo aceptamos siquiera una sola víctima?
No lo puedo comprender.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
Today, another train crash caused 50 deaths in Spain.
Now you can understand why Mbappe and La Liga apologized for Mbappe’s meme that called Mao a “dictator.”
Because China has money. A lot of money. At the same time, Spain is becoming a poor, 3rd-world country. If Mbappe and La Liga want to make money, they cannot say anything the Chinese don't want to hear.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
Mao was a dictator. Stalin was a dictator. Both were responsible (at least shared the responsibility) for the unnecessary deaths of millions of their own people.
However, both Mao and Stalin are very popular in their own countries. One reason is that they were the leaders who restored their national pride.
Mbappe apologized because of the pressure of money: You cannot sell things to people while insulting a figure with almost sacred status in their mind.
Shell 子皮 retweeted
Sweden is officially ditching mRNA vaccines, and they are not hiding their reasons for doing so.
artsencollectief.nl/zweden-k…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Misleading. Image text is from a Dutch group (Artsen Collectief), not a Swedish source. Sweden’s regions chose Sanofi’s Nuvaxovid as sole supplier for the 2027/2028 campaign only.
There has been no mRNA ban; Public Health Agency says 2026/2027 mainly uses mRNA Comirnaty.
nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artsen_Co…
adda.se/upphandling-oc…
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publikationer-…
lakemedelsvarlden.se/myndighetsrad-…
Shell 子皮 retweeted
英国和美国为什么仇视俄罗斯人？
转杰弗里·萨克斯在欧洲议会的讲话如下：
“英国人为什么开始仇恨俄罗斯人？为什么？告诉你们吧，因为我昨天刚刚出版了一本关于欧洲恐俄症的书。
在这本书的第一章，我讲述了一位名叫格里森的历史学家在1950年写的一项精彩研究。
他提出了一个非常切中要害的问题，对我们今天也完全适用。
他说，英国和俄罗斯在1815年滑铁卢还是盟友。25年后它们成了敌人。发生了什么？于是他研究了议会辩论记录。他研究了每一份公开记录。他读了一切。他读了下议院说过的每一句话。他读了每一次演讲。他在这本精彩的书里得出的结论是，俄罗斯最大的罪行就是它有1700万平方公里。这就是它最大的罪行。
为什么这么说？因为有了1700万平方公里，英国就认定俄罗斯如此庞大，以至于对大英帝国在印度的统治构成威胁。顺便说一句，这件事从来没有进入过沙皇的脑子。但英国把自己煽动得相当激动。到了1840年，俄罗斯成了敌人。
1853年，帕默斯顿，这个典型的帝国主义者，在克里米亚发动了战争。为什么？说来话长，但基本上就是为了压垮俄罗斯。因为俄罗斯在1852年说，我们可以解决所有的不满，没有任何理由发生冲突。而帕默斯顿说，我们向塞瓦斯托波尔进军。原因就是他想让俄罗斯变成一个无足轻重的存在，这样它就无法入侵大英帝国。于是爆发了三年的血腥战争，克里米亚战争。
这就是我们那革命性的和平方式。你们知道，1945年德国投降几天之后，大家都知道丘吉尔问他自己的战争指挥部，为什么我们现在不入侵苏联？取名为《不可思议行动》。（研究后知道不可行放弃）
而当美国在1945年接管大英帝国之后，俄罗斯成了美利坚合众国的敌人。
当苏联解体时，如果我们愿意，我们手中就握有未来一个世纪的和平。因为俄罗斯人对75年的布尔什维克主义已经相当厌倦了。他们想要和平，想要合作，想要友谊。而美国战略家能想到的只有俄罗斯很大，我们必须确保它仍然是一个三流强国。
于是决定用北约包围俄罗斯。如果你这样行事足够久，最终就会得到乌克兰战争。这不是普京的战争，这是我们的战争。原因与帕默斯顿和拿破仑三世发动第一次克里米亚战争的原因完全相同。因为俄罗斯对进军欧洲没有丝毫兴趣。它从来没有过，除了拿破仑打扰他们的时候和希特勒打扰他们的时候。”
当然中国人仇视俄国有自己的历史原因:一个是前苏联和中国共产党的关系，历史上和西方列强一起入侵过中国，并掠走了中国大片的土地。
Shell 子皮 retweeted
转：“他用乌克兰人的生命换取掌声”：促成2022年俄乌谈判的人公开发声
乌克兰亿万富翁、乌克兰最大钢铁集团Metinvest前共同所有人、前国会议员，以及乌克兰正统东正教会辅祭瓦季姆·诺文斯基（Vadim Novinsky），近日接受乌克兰媒体《Strana》的长篇专访，讲述了泽连斯基如何在2022年同意俄罗斯提出的和平条件，却最终选择退出谈判。
一、谈判是如何开始的
2022年2月24日，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动军事行动当天，泽连斯基所属政党在议会的负责人达维德·阿拉哈米亚（David Arakhamia）给诺文斯基打来电话，并打开免提，询问他应该怎么办。
诺文斯基建议他立即与莫斯科联系，“趁还没有那么多人丧生的时候。”
第二天，乌克兰一名安全部门负责人找到诺文斯基，请他帮助安排谈判，并告诉他：“这是总统的要求。”
五分钟后，诺文斯基便与泽连斯基通上了电话。
随后，诺文斯基联系到时任俄罗斯总统办公厅副主任德米特里·科扎克（Dmitry Kozak）。
泽连斯基拒绝将明斯克作为谈判地点。诺文斯基于是提出在白俄罗斯戈梅利（Gomel）举行谈判，泽连斯基表示同意。五分钟后，科扎克也确认接受这一安排。
二、泽连斯基当时同意了什么
诺文斯基表示，他通过电话与泽连斯基逐条确认了所有谈判条件，并补充说，乌克兰安全部门“应该保存着这些通话录音”。
据他回忆，泽连斯基从未提出争辩，只是问：“你怎么看？”随后便回答：“好，我同意。”
具体条件包括：
1. 将加入北约的目标从乌克兰宪法中删除，并宣布国家中立。
诺文斯基曾问泽连斯基，乌克兰在未来30年内是否有可能加入北约。泽连斯基回答说，不会。
2. 给予克里米亚30年的特殊地位，但不正式承认其属于俄罗斯。
3. 给予顿巴斯地区特殊地位。
按照这一安排，顿巴斯可以继续留在乌克兰境内，采取某种类似邦联的政治结构。
诺文斯基说：
“他当时非常困惑，几乎接受任何方案。”
整个谈判过程持续了大约一个月，直到3月底在伊斯坦布尔举行的那轮谈判。
三、为什么谈判最终破裂
诺文斯基认为，谈判破裂的责任在于乌克兰领导层。
他说，也许是鲍里斯·约翰逊或者其他人影响了泽连斯基，“也可能只是因为泽连斯基喜欢当英雄。”
诺文斯基说：
“他喜欢掌声，喜欢全世界的关注。无论走到哪里，人们都像迎接教皇一样欢迎他。最终，他用乌克兰人的生命，换取了外国议会里的掌声。”
四、此后发生了什么
2025年5月，泽连斯基指控诺文斯基在当年的电话交谈中威胁过他。
诺文斯基称这一指控是“彻头彻尾的诽谤”。
他解释说，当时自己就在基辅，随时可能遭到暗杀小组或乌克兰安全局人员的抓捕。如果他真的威胁总统，根本不可能安全地留在那里。
他说，直到有人警告他，泽连斯基“每天都在要求逮捕他”，他才最终离开乌克兰。
此后，诺文斯基先后三次受到制裁，并被指控叛国。
他表示，所谓叛国罪，实际上是因为他要求基辅履行《明斯克协议》。
此外，他还因为维护自己所属的教会而被指控“煽动宗教仇恨”。
诺文斯基还声称，泽连斯基总统办公室曾试图利用被冻结的公司股份，夺取Metinvest钢铁集团的控制权。
目前，他居住在克罗地亚。由于基辅当局拒绝为他签发新护照，他最近获得了塞尔维亚国籍。
五、要求泽连斯基辞职
10月10日，诺文斯基公开呼吁泽连斯基辞职，并要求乌克兰议会接管国家权力，直接与俄罗斯进行谈判。
几小时后，特朗普表示，乌克兰“需要一位新领导人”。
诺文斯基称，两件事发生在同一天纯属巧合。
谈到俄乌和平谈判的前景，他最后说：
“每一次新的协议，都比上一次更糟糕。与伊斯坦布尔协议相比，《明斯克协议》简直就是一道清淡的沙拉。接下来提出的条件只会更加糟糕。只要泽连斯基还掌握权力，就不会有和平。”
🇺🇦 "He traded Ukrainian lives for applause": the man who set up the 2022 talks speaks out
Vadim Novinsky, a billionaire, former co-owner of Ukraine's largest steel group Metinvest, ex-MP and protodeacon of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, has given a long interview to Ukrainian outlet Strana about how Zelensky agreed to Russia's terms in 2022, then walked away.
🔸️How it started:
On February 24, 2022, David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky's party in parliament, called Novinsky on speakerphone and asked what to do. Novinsky told him to contact Moscow immediately, "while there weren't yet so many dead."
The next day, the head of a Ukrainian security service asked him to arrange talks, saying "the president is asking." Five minutes later he was on the phone with Zelensky.
Novinsky reached Dmitry Kozak, then deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration. Zelensky refused Minsk as a venue, Novinsky proposed Gomel, Zelensky agreed, and Kozak confirmed within five minutes.
🔸️What Zelensky agreed to:
Novinsky says he cleared every point with Zelensky by phone, and adds that Ukraine's security services "must have the recordings." Zelensky never argued. He only asked "What do you think?" and then said "Fine, I agree."
1. Remove NATO membership from the constitution and declare neutrality. Novinsky asked Zelensky whether Ukraine would join NATO in the next 30 years. Zelensky said no.
2. A special status for Crimea for 30 years, without recognizing it as Russian
3. A special status for Donbass, which could have remained part of Ukraine in a confederation-type arrangement
"He was very confused and accepted any option," Novinsky says. The process lasted about a month, until the Istanbul round in late March.
🔸️Why it collapsed:
Novinsky blames Ukraine's leadership. Maybe Boris Johnson or someone else got to Zelensky, he says, "or Zelensky simply liked being a hero."
"He liked the ovations, the whole world's attention. Wherever he went, he was greeted like the Pope. In the end, he traded Ukrainian lives for applause in foreign parliaments."
🔸️What came after:
In May 2025, Zelensky accused Novinsky of threatening him in those calls. Novinsky calls this "outright slander": he was in Kiev at the time, where a hit squad or the Security Service of Ukraine could have come for him at any moment. He only left after being warned that Zelensky was demanding his arrest "every day."
He has since been sanctioned three times and charged with treason, which he says was for demanding Kiev implement the Minsk agreements, and with "inciting religious hatred" for defending his church. He says Zelensky's office also tried to use his frozen shares to seize control of Metinvest. He now lives in Croatia and was recently granted Serbian citizenship, after Kiev refused to issue him a new passport.
On October 10, Novinsky called on Zelensky to resign and on parliament to take power and negotiate directly with Russia. Hours later, Trump said Ukraine "needs a new leader." Novinsky says it was a coincidence.
"Every new deal is worse than the last. Compared to Istanbul, Minsk was a diet salad. The next proposals will be even worse. As long as Zelensky is in power, there will be no peace."
Shell 子皮 retweeted
🇺🇦 "He traded Ukrainian lives for applause": the man who set up the 2022 talks speaks out
Vadim Novinsky, a billionaire, former co-owner of Ukraine's largest steel group Metinvest, ex-MP and protodeacon of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, has given a long interview to Ukrainian outlet Strana about how Zelensky agreed to Russia's terms in 2022, then walked away.
🔸️How it started:
On February 24, 2022, David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky's party in parliament, called Novinsky on speakerphone and asked what to do. Novinsky told him to contact Moscow immediately, "while there weren't yet so many dead."
The next day, the head of a Ukrainian security service asked him to arrange talks, saying "the president is asking." Five minutes later he was on the phone with Zelensky.
Novinsky reached Dmitry Kozak, then deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration. Zelensky refused Minsk as a venue, Novinsky proposed Gomel, Zelensky agreed, and Kozak confirmed within five minutes.
🔸️What Zelensky agreed to:
Novinsky says he cleared every point with Zelensky by phone, and adds that Ukraine's security services "must have the recordings." Zelensky never argued. He only asked "What do you think?" and then said "Fine, I agree."
1. Remove NATO membership from the constitution and declare neutrality. Novinsky asked Zelensky whether Ukraine would join NATO in the next 30 years. Zelensky said no.
2. A special status for Crimea for 30 years, without recognizing it as Russian
3. A special status for Donbass, which could have remained part of Ukraine in a confederation-type arrangement
"He was very confused and accepted any option," Novinsky says. The process lasted about a month, until the Istanbul round in late March.
🔸️Why it collapsed:
Novinsky blames Ukraine's leadership. Maybe Boris Johnson or someone else got to Zelensky, he says, "or Zelensky simply liked being a hero."
"He liked the ovations, the whole world's attention. Wherever he went, he was greeted like the Pope. In the end, he traded Ukrainian lives for applause in foreign parliaments."
🔸️What came after:
In May 2025, Zelensky accused Novinsky of threatening him in those calls. Novinsky calls this "outright slander": he was in Kiev at the time, where a hit squad or the Security Service of Ukraine could have come for him at any moment. He only left after being warned that Zelensky was demanding his arrest "every day."
He has since been sanctioned three times and charged with treason, which he says was for demanding Kiev implement the Minsk agreements, and with "inciting religious hatred" for defending his church. He says Zelensky's office also tried to use his frozen shares to seize control of Metinvest. He now lives in Croatia and was recently granted Serbian citizenship, after Kiev refused to issue him a new passport.
On October 10, Novinsky called on Zelensky to resign and on parliament to take power and negotiate directly with Russia. Hours later, Trump said Ukraine "needs a new leader." Novinsky says it was a coincidence.
"Every new deal is worse than the last. Compared to Istanbul, Minsk was a diet salad. The next proposals will be even worse. As long as Zelensky is in power, there will be no peace."
Shell 子皮 retweeted
演员铁粉赞扬他的宁死不屈，寸土不让，现在不知道是否能继续闭眼支持？
认定割让土地是投降的人，只会喊口号不懂现实政治的残酷
战争开始的四年前，我就认定结尾只能是用土地换和平；给乌克兰留点面子，也只能是在俄方占领的乌东再玩一次公投，表明不是我放弃是他们要离开
早知如此何必当初，战争开始时俄乌双方同意的条件比现在的对乌克兰有利的太多；
被英国黄毛美国半傻毁了谈好的协议，多打了四年，留下无数的尸体与废墟
Shell 子皮 retweeted
"Twoja prababcia nie próbowała manifestować wakacji na plaży. Nie dbała o estetykę. Nie optymalizowała niczego. Miała listę, która była krótka i święta:
· Pełna spiżarnia.
· Zdrowe dzieci.
· Dach, który nie przecieka.
· Mąż, który wraca do domu.
· Ogród, który daje plony.
· Kilka ładnych sukienek.
· Niezawodna kuchenka.
· Niedzielny obiad z ludźmi, których kocha.
· Wystarczająca ilość mąki na tydzień.
· I wystarczająca ilość życzliwości dla sąsiadów.
To było całe marzenie. To było całe życie. A według standardów przeważającej historii ludzkości zrealizowanie tej listy było ogromnym sukcesem.
Potem nastał XX wiek i ktoś zorientował się, że zadowolona kobieta to zmora dla biznesu. Kobieta z pełną spiżarnią nie biegnie do sklepu. Kobieta zadowolona ze swojej kuchni nie przebuduje jej co cztery lata. Kobieta, która wie, jak wygląda „wystarczająco”, nie da się namówić na kolejną nowinkę.
Więc zabrali się do roboty:
Sprawili, że mały domek stał się powodem do wstydu.
Sprawili, że stary samochód stał się powodem do wstydu.
Sprawili, że domowy posiłek stał się powodem do wstydu, a kiedy już nikt nie umiał gotować, sprzedali go z powrotem jako zestaw do przygotowania posiłku z wizerunkiem znanego szefa kuchni na opakowaniu.
Podnieśli koszty życia tak bardzo, że oboje rodzice musieli pracować, a potem sprzedali im opiekę nad dziećmi, gotowe dania i weekendową terapię, by zaradzić wyczerpaniu, które od początku wynikało właśnie z konieczności wykonywania dwóch prac.
Wzięli listę twojej Babci i nazwali ją ubóstwem.
Wzięli jej życie i nazwali je ograniczonym.
Wzięli jej zadowolenie i nazwali je brakiem ambicji.
A potem… Sprzedali ci ambicję.
Sprzedali ci większy dom, którego nie jesteś w stanie posprzątać, samochód, którego nie jesteś w stanie spłacić, garderobę, której nie nosisz, kalendarz, z którym nie jesteś w stanie sobie poradzić, oraz niejasne, nieustanne poczucie, że wciąż pozostajesz w tyle.
Nie pozostajesz w tyle. Biegniesz w wyścigu, który został zaprojektowany tak, by nie miał linii mety. Sam wyścig jest produktem!
Wróć i przeczytaj listę Babci.”
(autor nieznany)
Shell 子皮 retweeted
法国究竟在发生什么？ 2026年秋季法国抗议概述
起点：学校真的运转不了。
2026年9月，巴黎近郊一所高中因缺老师、缺教室、课表混乱被学生用垃圾桶堵门，迅速蔓延全国。2024—2025学年公立初高中约1540万课时因教师缺勤无人替补而损失；班级常超30人，部分学校缺桌椅、无降温设施。
合流：上街的不止学生。
10月17日全国行动日，参与者包括高中生、大学生、教师、家长、工会、“黄背心”、农民、消防员、护士、退休人员等。学生提供了爆发力和道德感，工会和“黄背心”提供了组织网络与更大叙事。内政部称全法约55万人，总工会称约80万人。
诉求质变：从“修好教室”到“活不下去”。
学生最初要的是代课老师和桌椅；合流后议题扩展为燃油与生活成本、购买力下降、公共服务衰退、警方执法和民主运作。预算案在整体削减约540亿欧元的框架下，中小学还计划削减1588个教师岗位—学生看到的是“学校已经缺人，预算还要更少”。
规模与暴力：
利摩日一座143年历史的市政厅被纵火，里昂旅游办公室被烧，多地商铺遭抢掠；一名17岁示威者被震爆弹击中失去一只手，一名示威者死亡，超600名安全人员受伤。政府紧急部署3000名代课教师、释放1000万桶柴油压油价，但未改变预算方向。
为什么“没钱修学校”不是借口？
10月1日公布的2027年预算草案，提供了一个近乎实验条件的对照。在计划540亿欧元的财政整顿框架下，债务利息增加103亿欧元，国防支出增加62亿欧元，而中小学教育仅增加11亿欧元，同时净削减1588个教师岗位，公务员工资继续冻结。另一口径显示国防增量为64亿欧元，教育仅增8亿欧元。无论取哪组数字，国防一年的增量，是中小学教育增量的五到八倍。
更关键的是制度性的豁免地位。总理勒科尔尼明确要求，2027年除国防外的国家支出“严格保持在2026年的同一水平”，国防被排除在冻结之外，继续增长。这意味着，在“零价值”支出规则的约束下，军费的每一欧元增量，都必须在既定框架内由其他民用领域的削减来对冲。国防获得了“不能省”的政治地位，教育就成了那个“可以省”的答案。
 2026年7月议会通过的《军事规划法》修订案，在原规划基础上追加360亿欧元，使2024—2030年军费总额升至4360亿欧元。L'Humanité给出了一个关键换算：360亿欧元，相当于法国中等教育全年的工资总额；而在未来七年内将初中和高中班级规模压至20人所需的7万名教师，招募成本约为50亿欧元。这不是说这笔钱会自动流向教育，而是在同一个财政空间里，政治选择将十倍于教育改善成本的资源，制度性地赋予了军备扩张。
政治后果：
街头成为2027年总统选举前的预演场：极右翼勒庞以“秩序”回应混乱，极左翼梅朗雄把抗议接入反紧缩议程，中间派进一步边缘化。
所以学生上街，是因为教室里的失灵已经具体到无法忍受；而让这种失灵在2026年秋季以如此烈度转化为全国性抗议的财政主因，是国防开支在乌克兰战争后获得的制度性优先权—它使军费成为紧缩中唯一不可触碰的扩张项，从而将削减的代价系统地转移到了课堂和年轻一代身上。
Shell 子皮 retweeted
在我看来，那些一直主张乌克兰必须战斗到最后一个人的人，否则就是绥靖就是投降者，与当年八九六四期间坚决反对学生撤离广场的人，以及香港反送中运动中某些勇武派的极端作为，并没有什么本质上的区别。在这些人看来，只要自己主义真，谁的头落地都无所谓。而他们坐在电脑前漫溢出来的道德优越感，似乎只有在看到流血、看到人头落地、看到整个社会为此付出巨大代价之后，才能得到满足。
俄乌战争刚刚爆发不久，一位知名的前媒体人士在网上慷慨激昂地表示，恨不得老夫自己能够奔赴战场，为乌克兰抵抗侵略者捐躯，一副义愤填膺、视死如归的样子。
我当时就在网上问他：如果你有孩子，而且明明知道他们一旦上了战场，就有可能再也回不来，你还会不会鼓励让他们去当烈士？
他的回答是：不会，但他自己愿意去。
我接着说，你愿意为自己的信念牺牲，那是你自己的选择。但拿别人的生命去实现自己的信念，鼓励别人为了某种主义去死，在我看来，是非常不人道的。
结果，他质问我：“你是不是带着任务来的“？
回想起来，2022年10月3日，俄乌战争爆发仅仅七个多月，马斯克就在Twitter上提出了一套结束战争的和平方案，包括在联合国监督下重新举行争议地区的公投、承认克里米亚归属俄罗斯、保障克里米亚供水，以及乌克兰保持中立。
这套方案当时遭到铺天盖地的批评，甚至被指责为替俄罗斯说话。而当时的马斯克已开始为乌克兰提供星链的服务。
马斯克当时说过的一句话，今天读起来仍然令人感慨：
“这很可能就是最终的结局，问题只是在此之前，还要死多少人。”
如今，四年多过去了。战争给乌克兰造成了难以估量的生命代价，数百万人流离失所，大片国土沦为战场，部分领土至今仍处于俄罗斯控制之下。战争最终如何结束，至今仍未确定，但当年马斯克提出的那些问题，特别是领土安排、乌克兰的安全地位以及如何通过谈判结束战争，仍然是今天无法回避的现实。
回头再看马斯克当年的那句话，我们是不是应该问一问：为了走到今天这一步，究竟还有多少生命本来是可以挽救的？
这是多么巨大的不幸！
下面转一段推文：“你们的第二战场在哪里？
“普京就是希特勒！”西方的战争鹰派们不断高喊，搬出慕尼黑的幽灵、绥靖政策的耻辱，以及1938年那场灾难性的历史教训。
“你不能和希特勒谈判！”他们声嘶力竭地吼道，“必须在战场上击败他！”
好吧。你们的意思我明白了。
那么，你们他妈的人在哪里？
为什么你们还舒舒服服地坐在沙发上，眼睁睁看着乌克兰人以工业化规模遭到屠杀，仿佛这场战争不过是一场荒诞而恐怖的网络电子游戏——一场现场直播的斯大林格勒战役翻版，只不过这一次，流的是真正的鲜血，倒下的是真正的尸体，化为废墟的是真正的城市？
你们动辄搬出丘吉尔，可你们自己的勇气在哪里？你们召唤1940年的精神，却表现得仿佛敦刻尔克大撤退只是一场供人围观的体育比赛。
你们要求一场堪比1945年的伟大胜利，却指望乌克兰人独自用生命为这场胜利买单。
如果普京真的是希特勒，为什么只有乌克兰人必须与他作战？
你们的军队在哪里？你们的师团在哪里？你们的士兵在哪里？
你们的第二战场在哪里？
1944年，盟军并不是靠着躲在伦敦和华盛顿的安全地带发表慷慨激昂的演说来击败希特勒的。
他们横渡英吉利海峡，强攻诺曼底海滩，让自己的士兵亲身置于枪林弹雨之中。
而今天，你们一边宣扬击败一个新希特勒在道义上的必要性，一边却把流血牺牲的代价外包给乌克兰。
你们想要一场新的诺曼底登陆日，却要别人的儿子去冲锋陷阵。
你们想要再一次战胜法西斯，却要别人的城市沦为斯大林格勒。
你们想要在胜利的历史照片中留下自己的身影，却不愿让自己的名字出现在阵亡者的名单上。
多么方便！多么英勇！又是何等令人作呕的虚伪！
如果这真的是你们这一代人对抗希特勒的战争，那么就别再把乌克兰当成你们自己的东线战场——一个让别人流血牺牲，而你们却可以舒舒服服地坐在扶手椅里，高谈阔论自由的战场。
如果你们根本没有准备好亲自投入这场被你们高声宣称为文明与野蛮之间生死存亡之战的战争，那么至少也应该保有一点起码的诚实与体面，正视你们的言辞与行动之间的巨大矛盾。
因为历史不仅会记住那些姑息侵略的人，也同样会记住那些要求将战争进行到底的人——
只要上战场的是别人，流血牺牲的也是别人。“
Where is your Second Front?
“Putin is Hitler!” the Western war hawks keep shouting, invoking the ghosts of Munich, the shame of appeasement, and the catastrophic lessons of 1938.
“You cannot negotiate with Hitler!” they thunder. “He must be defeated on the battlefield!”
Fine. Point taken.
Then where the hell are you?
Why are you still sitting comfortably on your sofas, watching Ukrainians being slaughtered on an industrial scale, as though the war were some grotesque online video game — a live-streamed remake of Stalingrad, with real blood, real bodies, and real cities reduced to rubble?
You invoke Churchill, but where is your courage? You summon the spirit of 1940, yet behave as though Dunkirk were a spectator sport.
You demand a victory worthy of 1945, but expect Ukrainians alone to pay for it with their lives.
If Putin really is Hitler, why are Ukrainians the only ones expected to fight him?
Where are your armies? Where are your divisions? Where are your soldiers?
Where is your Second Front?
In 1944, the Allies didn't defeat Hitler by delivering stirring speeches from the safety of London and Washington. They crossed the English Channel. They stormed the beaches of Normandy. They put their own soldiers in the line of fire.
Today, you preach the moral necessity of defeating a new Hitler while outsourcing the dying to Ukraine.
You want a new D-Day — but with someone else's sons storming the beaches.
You want another victory over fascism — but with someone else's cities turned into Stalingrad.
You want to stand in the photographs of victory — without appearing in the lists of the fallen.
How convenient. How heroic. How obscenely hypocritical.
If this is truly your generation's struggle against Hitler, then stop treating Ukraine as your personal Eastern Front — a battlefield where others bleed so that you can deliver grand speeches about freedom from the comfort of your armchairs.
And if you are not prepared to fight the war you so loudly proclaim to be an existential battle between civilization and barbarism, then at least have the decency to confront the contradiction between your rhetoric and your actions.
Because history will remember not only those who appeased aggression, but also those who demanded a war to the bitter end — provided someone else did all the fighting and dying.
