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2. We believe that a majority of this acceleration in capability improvement is likely now driven by AI being used in AI R&D. We aren’t sure of this, though, and did not find consensus about this among Anthropic’s staff. Non-AI factors likely played a large role in late 2025.
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3. We believe there is a chance that capabilities progress could lead to even faster acceleration in the next 12 months, since we did not observe clear bottlenecks or strong diminishing returns. However, given our limited vantage point, we may have missed bottlenecking factors.
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Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development.
We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.
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If you ask a civil engineer why their bridge design is safe, they'd have a very clear and convincing answer, starting from saying that it meets the gov't design code, with a detour into why the design code is sufficient (or nearly sufficient). They can also show numerical analysis for safety, and that likely they or other people checked various different ways the bridge could fail, analysis with structural models, etc. An honest engineer (typical) would additionally have clear answers for the limitations for their assumptions and why their safety cases may fail.
Ditto for airplane engineers, who additionally have formal verification for increasingly large parts of the input space, demonstrations that catastrophic failure conditions are extraordinarily improbable, mandated incident reporting culture, etc. And these are ~typical engineering industries, almost all of whom actually take safety seriously: industries with critical infrastructure concerns and/or public fears, like nuclear power, typically take safety much more seriously, rather than less.
Software engineers (especially in consumer software companies) are the odd ones out here, mostly because historically software didn't affect the real world as much + failures are easier to roll back, and the laws reflect this prevailing (arguably outdated) notion. And AI "engineers" even more cowboyish than normal software engineers.
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Next Saturday, Nov. 14, hundreds of us will be marching in Washington DC, San Francisco, New York City, Boston, Paris, and Montreal.
We're calling for an immediate international agreement to ban ASI.
Let's do this.
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Just announced with @io9: Worm Is Becoming a #Comicbook with #IDW!
The most popular prose web serial of all time is getting a brand-new adaptation in the form of its first-ever physical release.
See more with link in bio!
#Worm #ComicBook #WebSerial #Adaptation
I thought I'd only tear up the one time, but no, just keeps happening. osu! has a beautiful storyteller in @andy_raikou; thine is the kingdom. Can't wait for the song to drop.😭😭😭😭😭😭
youtube.com/watch?v=rsXisunD…
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some extended thoughts: even if i take all of what nik say at face value, it's still bad to do the restrictions this close to OWC, when teams have chosen their players/in the middle of that process. naive fix: making the cutoff for signing up to tryouts be a month earlier
Replying to @nikolomara
have my misgivings since we're so close to OWC, but i appreciate you sharing your thoughts
in particular this convo nitter.gq/nikolomara/status/2109… between you and @megahell0 was the most helpful for me to understand some of the mindset behind the way this was handled
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and if there is some leniency & people can sign up for tryouts later, captains should be aware that these players could be restricted?
it seems like while this has happened before (see nitter.gq/blacktea12_osu/status/… , nitter.gq/Tynamoguy/status/21097… , nitter.gq/z9a_osu4/status/210958… )
Replying to @lifelineosu
I don't properly remember but crezz was genuinely just a full on false ban right?
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so this didnt happen! since it's self-described as the easiest of the chapters, I thought I should try to review episode 2 first. planing to re-read going from 2 -> 1 -> 3. episode 4 doesn't have nearly as many questions; so it just gets a skim
I pulled an all-nighter reading the end of Tatarigoroshi and Himatsubushi back-to-back; no review/live tweeting happened
will be taking this weekend to review and theorize, will post all at once
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mcgonagall aura is so back holy
idr the OG novels as well as HPMOR but she was def on the roster of GOATs in that series
"Who put such rubbish in your head, Mister Potter? Of course a Death Eater's Dark Mark can be removed. I must have done a hundred myself. How? Oh, Potter, all it takes is the will to do it. Pure, genuine, complete, crystalline, will. Now off with you or you'll be late."
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