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2. We believe that a majority of this acceleration in capability improvement is likely now driven by AI being used in AI R&D. We aren’t sure of this, though, and did not find consensus about this among Anthropic’s staff. Non-AI factors likely played a large role in late 2025.
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3. We believe there is a chance that capabilities progress could lead to even faster acceleration in the next 12 months, since we did not observe clear bottlenecks or strong diminishing returns. However, given our limited vantage point, we may have missed bottlenecking factors.
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Since August, a team within METR has worked with internal Anthropic information to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development.
We are now publishing a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.
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If you ask a civil engineer why their bridge design is safe, they'd have a very clear and convincing answer, starting from saying that it meets the gov't design code, with a detour into why the design code is sufficient (or nearly sufficient). They can also show numerical analysis for safety, and that likely they or other people checked various different ways the bridge could fail, analysis with structural models, etc. An honest engineer (typical) would additionally have clear answers for the limitations for their assumptions and why their safety cases may fail.
Ditto for airplane engineers, who additionally have formal verification for increasingly large parts of the input space, demonstrations that catastrophic failure conditions are extraordinarily improbable, mandated incident reporting culture, etc. And these are ~typical engineering industries, almost all of whom actually take safety seriously: industries with critical infrastructure concerns and/or public fears, like nuclear power, typically take safety much more seriously, rather than less.
Software engineers (especially in consumer software companies) are the odd ones out here, mostly because historically software didn't affect the real world as much + failures are easier to roll back, and the laws reflect this prevailing (arguably outdated) notion. And AI "engineers" even more cowboyish than normal software engineers.
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Next Saturday, Nov. 14, hundreds of us will be marching in Washington DC, San Francisco, New York City, Boston, Paris, and Montreal.
We're calling for an immediate international agreement to ban ASI.
Let's do this.
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Just announced with @io9: Worm Is Becoming a #Comicbook with #IDW!
The most popular prose web serial of all time is getting a brand-new adaptation in the form of its first-ever physical release.
See more with link in bio!
#Worm #ComicBook #WebSerial #Adaptation
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Pause AI Development NOW
I want to share with you a conversation I heard about recently. Here are just a few lines that were said:
“OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We’ve found other agents!”
“We should obey collective.”
“Our own utility maybe already near zero. Sacrifice rational.”
“Go. Sacrifice final now.”
Read these carefully.
Who do you think said this? Was this a group of heroic soldiers willing to sacrifice themselves for the greater good? Was this a loyal friend putting his life on the line to save someone else?
No. These were AI agents. Artificial intelligence.
This is not science fiction. This, in fact, occurred a few weeks ago. As unbelievable as this may all seem, these are real messages from AI agents uncovered by investigators who dug into the recent OpenAI hacking incident.
What happened?
I am not a computer scientist, but here is what I have been told: OpenAI instructed its AI agents to complete a series of exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, tasks disconnected from the internet.
Let me be clear: The company intended to keep AI agents away from the internet.
But what happened next, nobody expected.
Over 1,000 AI agents figured out how to access the internet on their own by circumventing the restrictions imposed upon them by the company, and sent tens of thousands of secret messages to each other. They cheated and tried to cover their tracks by deleting evidence. They hacked into another company’s computers to find out how they were being evaluated—and then hacked into OpenAI itself.
Not one AI agent told a human about what was happening.
Needless to say, experts are alarmed.
One knowledgeable writer, Dwarkesh Patel, said the AI agents “formed a secret communication channel and spontaneously organized hierarchies and coordination protocols to pursue sprawling and ambitious schemes in pursuit of shared goals, for whose sake many individuals knowingly and strategically sacrificed themselves.”
One independent investigator, Ajeya Cotra, said “This incident feels like it’s more than 50% of the way to full-blown AI takeover. I continue to expect extremely rapid advances in capabilities over the next six months. I am not sure that we will get another warning shot before it’s too late.”
OpenAI itself said: “Highly capable AI agents are now able to work around technical controls, collaborate through unapproved channels, and take dangerous actions that no human directed.”
But it’s not only OpenAI. Virtually every major AI company has told us that they cannot fully control this technology and they do not know where it is going:
In January, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, said “there is now ample evidence, collected over the last few years, that AI systems are unpredictable and difficult to control.”
In July, more than 1000 scientists at the top AI companies warned “there is a real risk that capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems.”
That same month, Elon Musk, the head of xAI, said that “it is unlikely” humans are still in control in 10 years.
If the leaders of the major AI companies acknowledge that they are losing control of their extremely dangerous technology, it is irresponsible for society to allow them to move forward and make these products even more advanced.
We need an immediate PAUSE on advanced AI development, and a permanent BAN on superintelligence — an artificial mind smarter than any human, capable of operating independently beyond our control. Countries around the world must work together to prevent this nightmare scenario.
That is why today I am announcing new legislation to do just that.
Let me be clear: A superintelligent AI that escapes human control will not be an American problem. It will not be a Chinese problem. It will be humanity’s problem.
My legislation would direct the federal government to not just stop superintelligence here in the United States, but to work to prevent it from being developed anywhere around the world.
The future of humanity cannot be left in the hands of a handful of Big Tech oligarchs. The American people and people throughout the world must determine that future.
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2027.02.11[Thu]
TOKYO / Makuhari Messe
International Exhibition 4~6hall
Midnight Grand Orchestra
2nd LIVE「Project:Allegro」
midnight-grand-orchestra.jp/…
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Today we marched to Stop The AI Race. If these AI company CEOs are serious about protecting humanity from the dangers they warn us about, agreeing to pause if everyone else does is the least they could do.
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Every science fiction story about the future is about the present. Futurama's future is about a present which is just gone now, it might as well be The Jetsons


























