sparkc 🪆 retweeted
THE CITADEL. HIGH STAKES GUNSHIP BROWSER MMO
Closed beta starts this weekend. Claim your spot now thecitadel.com
sparkc 🪆 retweeted
AI Cycle Vibes
We talked about it the whole way up. The AI cycle had main characters, alt season, shitco(in)s, legendary liquidations, and everything else we see in bubbles.
I don't think AI is by any means "over", but it fits our experience that the first (or second?) generation of metas is maxed out. This is the spot where charts usually drift lower to cool off and the market resets its confidence. The supply chain probably needs time to reset too.
Anyway, I wanted to comp AI against other assets that needed to cool off despite strong narratives. Here's the fractal for $GLD overlaying the $EWY chart.
It's not hard to imagine the market needing another 90 days to churn all of the dip buyers and euphoria while the supply chain figures out how to make the numbers work. The market showing breadth into healthcare and crypto supports this idea.
sparkc 🪆 retweeted
I have been thinking about the famous chart showing how experts keep projecting linear growth in solar installations, year after year, and always get it wrong when growth is still exponential.
I think the same thing is happening with the discourse on product strategy around AI.
sparkc 🪆 retweeted
I increasingly think there are two distinct pills.
the AGI pill is unpleasant but if needed I think most people can handle it.
the ASI pill is another level, too high shock value, they really can't.
A big end of week derisk less likely to happen after this
Is this psyop #561? Who knows
Am closing positions and will look for opportunities to reshort. Not trying to catch every move and get chopped up.
Expect a lot of risk off in the coming session as people look to reduce exposure heading into a long weekend where Trump could easily escalate
Markets not even close to retracing from when they started to actually take the conflict seriously
And I doubt we get even a half-hearted taco attempt after last night's speech
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Expect a lot of risk off in the coming session as people look to reduce exposure heading into a long weekend where Trump could easily escalate
Markets not even close to retracing from when they started to actually take the conflict seriously
And I doubt we get even a half-hearted taco attempt after last night's speech
As expected.
A lot of folk who made fun of the market for falling for fake tacos fell for the latest fake taco.
Time to see if the market can finally grapple with the fact that Trump has bigger priorities than the S&P.
Don't believe in the Trump put.
Read the whole report. The headline that pumped the news is just a clickbait paraphrase taken out of context.
100% organic purebred nothingburger
Adding some EWY/EWJ shorts and BRENT longs
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Complete nothingburger in other words
NEW: White House official tells @realDailyWire that during his 9pm address tonight, President Donald Trump will give an "operational update on the progress of Operation Epic Fury, which is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks."
The president will highlight the success of the U.S. military in "achieving all of its stated goals prior to the operation." He will also reiterate the 2-3 week timetable that he mentioned on Tuesday.
POTUS's remarks will highlight the goals of the operation, WH official says:
- Destroy Iran’s deadly ballistic missiles and production facilities
- Annihilate their Navy
- Ensure their terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region
- Guarantee that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon
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Read the whole report. The headline that pumped the news is just a clickbait paraphrase taken out of context.
100% organic purebred nothingburger
Adding some EWY/EWJ shorts and BRENT longs
Some quick thoughts on how I'm seeing things:
1. What you're currently seeing is the Law of Diminishing TACO. Every TACO must be larger than the last to have any effect.
Look at actions not words. Troops continue to be sent into the Middle east. Don't-believe-his-lies.jpeg
2. I am expecting a short squeeze now/soon. Have taken off my shorts and am flat other than WEAT/CORN.
A good candidate for the next TACO to propel this is Trump yapping positively about the China/Pakistan peace proposal that just went out.
3. Best candidates for downside still look like Korea/EWY and Japan/EWJ to me. Looking to get back in if we bounce a little more.
4. Whenever we get some sort of resolution/it becomes clear one will soon arrive, my current plan is to be balls deep long Memory and Optics.
5. Shortly afterwards i plan to FSH my memory and optics. Things were not looking good prior to the Iran War and the rippling effects of it aren't immediately showing and will be heavily discounted come any resolution.
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sparkc 🪆 retweeted
FOMC day has arrived where per usual we will not learn anything new from Powell. The Fed's end to QT has already been leaked to big bank strategists and the WSJ, they will cut at their next two meetings to stay consistent with September dot plot and market expectations, and they will continue to prioritize supporting growth while avoiding public acknowledgement that their inflation target has shifted up to ~3%.
Fast forward a few hours and Trump will be touting his meeting with Xi as the most successful and important meeting any US president has ever had. There will be talks of a grand deal made that can now provide certainty to corporates and consumers globally. After this, event risk rolls off significantly into year end.
It is extremely difficult to be fearful of a market boogeyman when corporate bond yields are at 3.5 year lows, mortgage rates are at 3 year lows, oil is at 4.5 year lows, the Fed is cutting in 4/5 consecutive meetings and ending QT, fiscal deficit spending is still running rampant and OBBA incentives plus other election year stimulus measures begin next quarter. These next few quarters will likely remind everyone why Trump got his President Pump nickname.
