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Earth
Joined October 2025
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OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
.@CFTC Staff Releases Updates to FAQs Concerning Registrants and Registered Entity Activities Relating to Crypto Assets and Blockchain Technologies: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
This Polymarket trader wagered over $200k that Jesus will not return before 2027.
With this level of conviction, might they be an insider?
But perhaps the better question is: why does Wise-Mecca over here have 563,549 shares of Yes as their only position?!
What do they know?!
OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
Here’s a gift link to today’s Wall Street Journal article on the possible wash trading on Kalshi. The WSJ team is killing it lately. wsj.com/finance/currencies/5…
OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
NEW w/ @ceostroff @byneilmehta: The CFTC is examining unusual Kalshi trades first surfaced here by @beniduboss. Since August, almost one million trades were made in a single market in nearly identical amounts.
wsj.com/finance/currencies/5…
Staff say they "may view" mention markets as "presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation" and expect a "heightened showing" to list them.
.@CFTC Releases Staff Advisory on Mention Markets: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts.
i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal.
this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here: news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-…
OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
BREAKING NEWS: Utah GOP Sen. JOHN CURTIS is asking the Senate Judiciary to investigate Donald Trump Jr over a report that a Russian oligarch close to Putin paid for his wedding celebration.
punchbowl.news/09-21-2026-cu…
Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, letting users buy with borrowed funds cnbc.com/2026/09/22/kalshi-a…
Kalshi’s statement re: wash trading allegations:
Kalshi’s statement regarding the wash trading allegations:
“This past weekend, a few threads took off that accused Kalshi of causing wash trading. Putting aside the natural explanation for the trading patterns explained above, it is worth re-iterating that wash trading is explicitly banned in our rulebook. We are regulated. We know who is trading. We mechanically block self-trades, and have surveillance watching for pre-arranged trades with a partner. We’ve seen no evidence of collusion or wash trades.”
A recent paper by @OctopusTakopi alleges evidence of wash trading on Kalshi's perpetual futures.
A few things stood out...
They "collected every public trade between 5 and 18 September 2026, about 4.1 million trades worth $11.5 billion, as well as the complete history of the BTC and ETH contracts since they opened in June."
They found that three recurring trade sizes ($5,500 in Ethereum, and $5,000 or $2,500 in Bitcoin) accounted for roughly half of all Kalshi perp dollar volume in the sample.
On August 24, those recurring amounts changed in both markets:
- Bitcoin went from $4,000/$2,100 to $5,000/$2,500, - thereum went from $4,500 to $5,500.
"Both markets therefore switched within about ten seconds of each other, and within each market the change took less than two seconds."
"We cannot think of a market event that would move trade sizes to new round dollar figures in two contracts within ten seconds, whereas one operator changing a setting would do exactly that."
The public data don't identify the accounts, so the paper can't establish whether the same owner was on both sides.
unavailable
Get in the zone, AutoZone earnings call mention market on Kalshi tomorrow at 10 am ET.
oddchain.com/p/what-autozone…
OddChain | Prediction Market News & Insights retweeted
Another very good forecast update for Democrats today. Now up 7.8 on the generic ballot or 8.6 on the likely-voter version. That is deeply into wave territory.
For those who want to give this story a read:
Here's a gift link to NYT story for those who haven't read
nytimes.com/2026/09/19/busin…
Soooo this didn't happen...
