Tim Stephan

⚽ HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS SOCCER ⚽ Central Hardin, South Oldham and Dunbar are the Big 3 to watch as postseason opens Central Hardin leads a clear Big Three as Kentucky’s girls soccer postseason opens this week. The Bruins are No. 1 in the MaxPreps ratings, Rundell rankings and the coaches’ poll, while sitting No. 2 in the KHSAA Ratings Percentage Index. Their average placement of 1.25 is the best among the 34 schools appearing in at least one of the four statewide Top 25s. South Oldham and Paul Laurence Dunbar join Central Hardin in a distinct Big Three, all from public schools. South Oldham is first in RPI, second in MaxPreps and the coaches’ poll and third in Rundell for a 2.00 average. Dunbar checks in third in RPI, MaxPreps and the coaches’ poll and second in Rundell, averaging 2.75. A sizable gap follows. Assumption holds the next spot with a 5.25 average, followed by Lafayette at 6.50, Greenwood at 7.50 and North Oldham at 8.00. Sacred Heart, West Jessamine and Frederick Douglass round out the consensus top 10. The comparison groups schools first by the number of statewide Top 25s in which they appear, then uses average placement to establish order within each tier. A team ranked by all four systems remains ahead of one recognized by three, regardless of the latter’s numerical average. Seventeen schools earned a place in every Top 25. Highlands, Bowling Green, Elizabethtown and South Warren appear in three of four, seven schools make two lists and six are included by one system. In all, 34 programs received Top 25 recognition somewhere. The 11th Region is the deepest in the state by this measure. Seven schools from the region appear in at least one Top 25: Paul Laurence Dunbar, Lafayette, Frederick Douglass, Lexington Catholic, Henry Clay, Sayre and Woodford County. Five of those are among the 17 programs recognized by all four systems. The 7th and 8th regions are next with four represented schools each. Assumption, Sacred Heart, DuPont Manual and Brown come from the 7th, while South Oldham, North Oldham, Simon Kenton and Oldham County represent the 8th. The 4th, 5th, 9th and 12th regions each have three. Three regions are absent entirely. No team from the 6th, 13th or 14th appears in any of the four Top 25s. The 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 15th and 16th regions have one representative each. Across Regions 13 through 16, only Martin County and Russell make the 34-school field. Some of the largest disagreements involve Sacred Heart and Notre Dame, two prominent private-school programs near Kentucky’s borders. Sacred Heart is fourth in Rundell and fifth in the coaches’ poll, with MaxPreps placing the Valkyries ninth. KHSAA RPI has them 18th. Notre Dame stands sixth with the coaches and 11th at MaxPreps but falls to 22nd in RPI. Their out-of-state scheduling helps explain part of that gap. KHSAA RPI does not carry over the actual opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage of non-KHSAA schools in the same way it does for Kentucky member schools. That can limit the statistical benefit for programs that regularly schedule strong competition across state lines. Other splits are nearly as sharp. Boyle County is seventh in RPI but 22nd at MaxPreps. West Jessamine is seventh at MaxPreps and ninth in RPI, yet 21st in Rundell. Martin County ranks fourth in RPI and 17th in Rundell while going unranked by MaxPreps and the coaches.