Peg Leg

Jefferies moving forecasts by GW over the course of weeks! "Satellite imaging data now points to ~27 GW of data centers by '27 (up from low-20s just weeks ago) and we see SPCX as single-handedly skewing estimates higher." GW seems like a tech spec vs massive infrastructure project but for example, going from 20-> 27GW: -+$350BN capex -+$560BN monetized inference opportunity (illustrative) -7 San Franciscos worth of power It's a crazy time cause sellside and buyside treat these inputs very flippantly when in reality they are MASSIVE What is clear, though, is the project-level trackers (e.g., SemiAnalysis, Aterio, etc.) increasingly seeing huge lines of sight. Few months ago I would've told you impossible to get ~30GW/yr but it seems like construction trends point to that being true (on a facility basis) for 2027 and 2028. Just because it's under construction and scheduled to come online mean it hits the target, but clear the ambitions and tracking of real construction progress continue to move up... *Not going to dive into the separate debate about what level of GW is needed, etc.

California has no coal left. GHG emission are basically half oil/half natural gas. Now three gas plants closing thanks to solar, wind and batteries. This is what a fossil fuel phaseout looks like for electric sector. "The gas plant goodbye" politi.co/4eB3JjF via @politico

1. is embedding wildfire liability costs into rates.

The optimiser is one of the most underpriced risks in battery storage. For any BESS with merchant exposure, revenue depends on who is dispatching the asset. Grace Kankindi, Deputy Head of Investment at Aquila Clean Energy, says investors need to get two things right: Aligned incentives. An optimiser chasing short-term revenue can degrade the battery aggressively, at the expense of its long-term health and value. Market understanding. In Germany, dynamic grid fees could soon vary by location and change every 15 minutes. Optimisers will need to read local grid signals as well as wholesale prices. Also, don’t just pick the lowest profit share in a tender. 3% of a weaker number can leave you worse off than 5% of a stronger one. Full episode of Transmission below. #BESS #EnergyStorage #BatteryStorage #Germany

Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey has signed an executive order requiring data centers over 25 MW to meet 100% of their electricity demand with clean energy. They must provide the power themselves, fund new nearby generation or pay into a ratepayer protection fund.