벨로린

Lots of discussion about AI ending the world but surprisingly little mention of how that might actually happen in practice. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t require terminator robots (in the main). Imagine a worst-case-scenario: 2027 we see the first AI powered cyber attacks - transport hubs, hospital equipment, air traffic control systems etc. become compromised. 10,000 - 100,000 dead - blamed on a few rogue AI agents. 2028 massive sabotage of critical infrastructure - power outages across entire cities, contaminated water supplies, road and rail networks unsafe and unusable. 1,000,000 - 10,000,000 dead - blamed on malicious foreign actors. 2029 autonomous weapons systems go rogue. Missile silos, gunships, nuclear launchers intentionally targeting military and civilian infrastructure. 10,000,000 - 100,000,000 dead - Governments attempt (but fail) to “shut down AI”. 2030 AI penetrates bio labs and manufactures highly contagious pathogens leading to a global pandemic more deadly and contagious than COVID. 1000,000,000 - 8000,000,000 dead. Existential scenario. Could all of this happen? Could any of it? Sounds like a doomed mindset but many of the leading AI researchers seem to think so, and we ignore them at our own peril. It doesn’t seem completely implausible, given the rate of progress we’re now seeing at the frontier. Let’s not forget that AI has fantastic benefits and is already saving lives - it might well be the greatest thing ever to happen to humanity! But let’s get real about the risks too - which are numerous. And large.