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The Cycle Indicator on the chart flagged a low.
If that is where you put on size, the next phase is simply holding until the same overlay or whatever overheating markers you chose says the move is stretched.
The trap is needing this rally to pay you on your timetable. When you cling to that outcome your attention stays on the gap between current price and the number you want, which usually produces the opposite behavior: adding too late, selling the first bounce, or refusing to sell when the signals actually appear.
Effortless action here means the work was choosing the zone and the exit rules.
After that you stop forcing the market to prove you right and you let the position follow the plan.
Set the exit criteria now, size so a slower or deeper path does not make you break those rules, then leave it alone.
Extra hope and extra watching mostly get in the way.
$BTC
Updated preview of the bitcoin trading dashboard I am building. Still needs work, but this is a strong signal of bullish times developing. bitcoin:native
More refinement inbound, but it's still useable as is.
Not financial advice. I am just publicly testing my models & trading systems.
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Longs looking good so far $btc
$BTC bands are coiled looking primed for volatility, potentially a major move.
On the middle pane, we see a bottom signal forming circled in green. Meanwhile, momentum is looking primed to pivot upwards.
Since the $BTC bands are calling attention to the chart, and we're seeing signs of possible bullishness to form in days ahead - I am positioning long to stay open to that possibility.
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Seems like the $SPY is looking like its trying to find resolution. Possible volatility still ahead, but its also coiled for a big move. If it can move into risk on from here, the move is up.
This makes sense with midterm election ahead. Once that event is over and market has clarity, that could catalyze the resumption.
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$BTC bands are coiled looking primed for volatility, potentially a major move.
On the middle pane, we see a bottom signal forming circled in green. Meanwhile, momentum is looking primed to pivot upwards.
Since the $BTC bands are calling attention to the chart, and we're seeing signs of possible bullishness to form in days ahead - I am positioning long to stay open to that possibility.
I really enjoy constant refinement and discovery in my work.
While visually it needs more work, I really like the signal this build is offering.
bitcoin:native
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While it's possible to surge up & up & up - its unlikely.
More likely, there is a corrective period on the horizon for late participants joining the bull market to get punished.
Low timeframe money flow is weakening.
This is not the type of area you want to take leverage with confidence. Those times will arrive on a platter. I have my cannons loaded and ready for the next one.
We'll see what comes. bitcoin:native
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What he said $TLT
nitter.gq/xe243x/status/21053075…
SWEET TEMPTATION: Money keeps pouring into $TLT as it keeps going down, and the more it goes down the more tempting it gets, like a bowl of ice cream and each 1% move down is another topping and you're starving. If history is any guide it's best to just walk past the ice cream store, don't even look in the window, until you get to the much safer short end of the curve.
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Some thoughts on bonds $TLT
**Personal Contact**
Sat with a trader who survived the big firms (Merrill, etc.).
Asked about $TLT - he’s bearish, not as an imminent call but as a multi-year trend toward higher rates / lower bond prices.
Thinks we’re early in a ~20-year cycle shift.
Now at a small shop doing structured options. More averse to bonds, and instead using options to generate portfolio yield to replace the old bond allocation that served that purpose.
Interesting take given the background.
**Ricardo Salinas**
I don't personally have a call on $TLT, but am a bit more situated like Ricardo Salinas on bonds:
Doesn’t own a single one.
Calls them a “terrible investment.”
Wouldn’t touch them “with a 10-foot pole.”
“Not over my dead body.”
Buying them is “the dumbest thing in the world.”
His point: the best case is getting your money back in debased currency. He’d rather hold hard assets - Bitcoin, gold/miners, his own businesses.
**In Summary**
I think $TLT bulls are not seeing the systemic change underway. Happy to be proven wrong by price and time if I will be.
But, also, I plainly feel there are much better opportunities with better charts that are moving with the changes of the financial system, rather than against them.
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