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SURVIVE THE NEW WORLD
Thrive during and after the synergizing new technologies (artificial intelligence, robotics, crypto, etc)
Banks won’t disappear overnight - they’ll hollow out first. Recessions will be used as cover to slowly shed staff while AI automates treasury, risk, compliance, and reporting, and fintech/blockchain quietly replace settlement and reconciliation under the hood. Banks will still look the same for a while, just with far fewer people.
More broadly, nearly every industry will be rocked by AI. Desk jobs and “thinking” roles that colleges train for will fall faster than physical trades - things that are hard to digitize, like plumbing, will last longer. Most industries won’t collapse outright; they’ll hollow out before becoming obsolete.
Older incumbents will tend to survive longer during this transition, protected by position and inertia, while younger workers face greater displacement and are forced to find new ways to leverage rapidly evolving technologies to earn income. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of chronic fiat debasement.
This isn’t collapse - it’s a transition from labor-priced systems to tool-priced systems. Income shifts away from selling time or credentials and toward owning, operating, or orchestrating leverage (AI, capital, platforms, protocols). Those who don’t adapt feel displaced; those who do feel increasingly uncoupled from traditional employment entirely.
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Hey SS!
Sure thing- Not much has changed since my past comments on bonds in the linked post, but I'll comment on it a bit more here also :)
I've attached an updated image of tooling I made to show reflex probability of gold, bitcoin, and bonds (basically it aims to predict what will respond bullishly in a recession).
Bonds continues to flatline. While momentum for $TLT continues to build, it looks like it should catch some bullish action on the horizon. Its not a sure fire bet right now in my opinion, and I think there are better plays to be found.
I'm tracking recession closely but, my thing sort of against bonds right now is that gold also serves as a similar play during recession as bonds do. #Bonds are losing credibility right now, while gold is gaining favor globally. Momentum is coming up for $TLT, but gold already has momentum.
From my view of markets, massive debasement is also on the horizon when an excuse to irresponsibly print finally arrives. So this pushes me more towards the debasement trade camp. $Gold is a logical beneficiary of it, where bonds look worse and worse as credibility erodes.
nitter.gq/xe243x/status/20389916…
I do not know if $TLT will reliably perform as per prior recession instances - as such I have based out into cash basically at break even after earning some dividends for some months.
During credibility erosion of the system, bonds may not behave as they have in the past as a flight to safety.
I built a Bond Reflex Probability tool to help me understand if Bonds are going to respond in recession as a bullish asset class, and the tools has just been flat lining - suggesting, no, at least not yet.
Making money during recession can be a tricky thing. Right now I am focused on cash savings to earn modest interest in FDIC insured accounts, while maintaining household financial security, and preparing for when a logical entry back into markets presents itself.
Should the crisis rotations with $Gold and #bonds play out, it seems likely to me that gold will be the winning flight to safety between the two.
While I am still testing* my reflex probability indicators for recession, it looks like even $BTC may out perform #TLT in this instance. However, again, this is still in testing.
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Just about every crypto chart is in deep bear mode now. Still a decent amount of Denial from perma-bulls, which is natural at this stage.
It's just a process down, self fulfilling and takes time, so stay patient. Like to focus on preparing for a bottom vs focusing on finding short term opportunities. Should expect one really solid counter-trend move between now and the eventual bottom.
I suspect the bottom comes with equities pushing down hard at some point in 2026 and likely well before the mid-terms.
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Its important to understand with my risk index, it is not based on a single asset. It is based on 'risk-on' profiling from every single asset class together - there by detecting market behavior - it does not tell you where the risk on buying will occur -other tools do that
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But last time this setup appeared, COVID hit.
BTC nuked from ~14k → ~3.8k.
That crash reset recession signals
and forced massive monetary stimulus. (Which booned risk assets)
Not saying we get the same shock —
just a reminder the path isn’t linear.
$btc $eth #altcoins
Osemka is a great analyst. Give the account a follow.
