Founder of Laveer Capital Management. Active #investor. Author.
Valparaiso, IN
Joined June 2015
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Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Mamdani weighing in on DoorDash M&A as if NYC is their only market is hilariously ignorant
A combined $DASH and $CART will combine complementary tech and distribution networks that will offer more options for consumer and more orders for its gig employees (which means more $)
I do think drivers should get paid more for the service they provide which would drive up cost for users, but it is ultimately a luxury to not have to get up off your ass and have someone deliver something to your doorstep
That said, I also think this acquisition makes strategic sense in light of increased competition from Amazon, Uber, Walmart and other giants offering better pricing and faster execution (a net positive for consumers)
We don’t need government stepping in to block clearly synergistic M&A and distorting free-market dynamics
We can point to Elizabeth Warren’s campaign to block the JetBlue / Spirit Airlines merger, which she touted as a big victory for consumers, only for Spirit to ultimately shut down and leave consumers worse off with less choices
Just last month, DoorDash couldn’t seem to find the money to pay their deliveristas — until our administration forced them to give back $131M+ in stolen wages and penalties.
This week, they’ve managed to find $17 billion to acquire one of their main competitors.
Corporate consolidation means higher prices, harsher exploitation, and greater economic inequality for New Yorkers.
We’ve stood up to these giants before. That doesn’t stop now.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
My favorite part of the Anthropic S-1 is how they casually list the risk of killing humanity in between interest rate and customer concentration risks
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
This stat from the Atlanta Braves is wild 👀
In 2025:
⚾ Baseball business → $51M income
🏙️ Mixed-use business → $68M income
The real estate+ businesses surrounding the Braves generated 34% MORE operating income than the baseball team itself.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
The biggest lesson of any capex cycle is to not take equity risk for a fixed rate of return. That's what the neocloud problem is.
Lending to SpaceX with Starlink-type revenues or strong offtakes and you get a bond, but lending to a borrower whose only asset is GPUs and only customer is another AI company is just equity with a coupon cap.
Credit is pricing that split. Apollo is telling you that good GPU financing can get done at +200/+250 over, and when Volta tried to raise $5 billion for a Norway data center earlier this month, investors balked and pushed the rate to 11%+.
Slok's point on if compute costs more to produce than users get out of it, the collateral is worth less every quarter tells you everything you need to know and that's all before we talk about the equity of the business.
Elon is right that the debt markets haven't been receptive. It is pretty clear that the market is starting to price in that equity risk to the space.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
I think we do understand
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Instead of increasing shareholder value today I decided to enjoy a little fall golf
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
The first version of anything you build will be a little embarrassing.
Ship it anyway.
You learn more from one real person using it than from ten more weeks of polishing in private.
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on.
So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series.
The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came.
A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.”
Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
Dudley K Beyler retweeted
Life should be lived like EBITDA adjustments
It should always be positive, and sometimes, completely delusional
