Adam Watkins

Most people believe hard work alone can make anyone succeed at anything. The smartest know this is false. Cognitive ability is 50-80% heritable by adulthood per twin studies. Talent and starting conditions set hard limits. Effort multiplies existing capacity but cannot create it. Denying biology wastes lives and fuels false equality narratives.

I would suspect with the size of their Senate majority (as opposed to a narrow one people thought could have possibly happened) they will be able to make a legitimate run to convict in the impeachment trial, needing only 10-12 Rs on board instead of 16.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

Neocons must have sent out a group text saying that tonight means JD Vance won't win. Huh? Tonight wipes out Ted Cruz, DeSantis, Rubio, and every other pro-war primary challenger in 2028. JD's chances improved. I still think there will be a dark horse candidate though.

The only figure of national importance in the 2028 GOP race who can assemble a similar coalition to 2024 is Marco Rubio. There isn’t a second choice. The GOP needs Hispanic support.

Random fallout from tonight: Leadership at Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, et al, will have totally different bosses in Austin. That will rock the Tower.

Worst election for a party since 1974. Well done republicans.

I’m not at all shy about blaming DEI where appropriate, and it often is appropriate. But I see no DEI angle on this jet crash. The female pilot was not flying the plane. The captain was a 55 year old man. Trying to blame the girl for the crash is absurd and baseless. Yes she seemed frantic and terrified in the radio call but I would be to, and so would you. And even if she’d been cool as a cucumber, there isn’t the slightest reason to think it would have made any difference at all. I’ll fully admit that I wouldn’t get in a plane if the copilot was a 20 year old girl. But that doesn’t change the fact that there is no evidence that she was personally at fault. And for the record, becoming a pilot at 20 is pretty impressive. She had her shit together a lot more than I did at that age. I’ll say that at least. I don’t think airlines or private charter companies should be making any specific effort at all to be “inclusive” of women or whatever, but it’s still admirable for a kid to have a goal like that and pursue it. I don’t see any reason to mock her, as some have done. Some of the comments about that audio recording have been callous to an unhuman degree. None of you would have the stoicism in that situation that you demand from this girl. And again, there’s no reason to think stoicism would have magically kept the plane from falling out of the sky. Besides, she actually did seem pretty calm in that recording until the last few seconds, relative to the circumstance she was in. I don’t want my pilot to panic but I also don’t want them to be completely indifferent to the prospect of a fatal crash, as some commenters here apparently expect.

If it was going to be a mega blue wave, Michigan would be mega blue no matter who and a Dem US house rep wouldn’t endorse against the party. 🤷

I’m co-authoring legislation to explicitly teach “diversity, equity, and inclusion” in our schools. I’ve also filed House Bill 4111 which would require school districts over a certain size to hire a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Officer.

Older early voters favor Republicans in Texas. 2024 exit polls showed voters 65+ backing Trump 59-40 and Cruz similarly. Ages 55+ lean more GOP than younger groups, who tilt Democratic. This shift from 2024 should help Republicans relative to a younger electorate.

Sorry trump didnt fix 100+ years of decline in less than a decade so I'm cutting my dick off

Look who's panicking. 🫪

Pologne : les contrôleurs aériens n'ont pas permis à l'avion du président d'atterrir. Les pilotes les ont ignorés et ont atterri quand même. Le but était de l'envoyer en exil à l'étranger et de prendre le controle de toutes les institutions.

Is a tie Senate race in Texas not a competitive race?