Interested in weather (especially snow) and climate Eco-socialist Substack: https://nitter.gq/t.co/fbi9zpBvyM
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Joined September 2025
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British Isles Weather retweeted
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in our atmosphere are higher than ever before.
The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on the amount of gas that accumulates in the atmosphere, not new annual emissions.
Explore the findings: bit.ly/4iIqwMR
British Isles Weather retweeted
I feel like given all the talk about stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption some things need to be clarified:
1. A SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) and potential subsequent reversal in winds associated with the stratospheric polar vortex DO NOT guarantee wave reflections back to the troposphere or coupling. It can have significant impacts should coupling/reflections to the lower atmosphere occur, but that is something that is still an unknown and will need to be observed in coming days and weeks. Wave reflection can have impacts sooner, coupling can take longer.
2. Notice how I said weeks… there is usually a lag period between the actual disruptive warming event/reversal itself and subsequent downward reflection and/or potential coupling. This can take time, and is still not a guarantee.
3. With the above being said this may have impacts on our pattern at 500 MB down the road come mid/late November, but right now that is TBD. In any case the Nino enhanced sub tropical jet will lead to increased storminess, with wetter and cooler potential for the southern tier of the United States as we move deeper into November, that’s just Nino climo.
So while this may be exciting for winter weather enthusiasts and while this event is extraordinary given the environment and time of year it is occurring, nothing is set in stone as of yet. Could this lead to a colder pattern later into November? Yes. Could wave propagation simply be absorbed by the stratosphere leaving a weakened vortex with little downward propagation/surface effects? Also yes. (The second scenario still doesn’t preclude downward coupling later down the road)
We know this will more likely than not significantly disrupt the polar vortex, but we still need to have some patience and observe downward coupling/wave propagation over the next 2-4 weeks. Canada is also going to remain quite warm during this time, so any true cold will need to originate via cross polar flow should we get enough polar blocking. Just several things to think about before we get either too hyped up, or too dismissive of this event at the moment.
British Isles Weather retweeted
🫶🙏 Thank you, everyone, for your support and Kindness & encouragement regarding the long-range predictability of Polar Vortex and Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events this season. A warm welcome as well to my many new friends and connections from the USA, Europe, and elsewhere around the world! 🫶
Polar vortex dynamics may offer greater long-range predictability than is commonly assumed when considering the combined influences of space weather, volcanic forcing, and internal PV variability. Instrumental observations, historical reconstructions, and extensive archives provide valuable opportunities to investigate these relationships using statistical modelling and advanced Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs).
This is the sixth PV-related SSW event I have successfully predicted since 2024, with approximately 3–5 months of lead time. My approach focuses on estimating the cumulative propensity for 10-hPa temperature anomalies and their associated imprints, using both monthly and daily data across autumn and winter.
My work draws extensively on published research exploring the potential links between solar and geomagnetic activity, solar proton flux, energetic particle precipitation, volcanic forcing, and polar-vortex dynamics in both hemispheres. I have attached some relevant studies for those interested.
I also bring my own statistical experience and creativity to this work, experimenting with alternative model structures, interactions, and predictor combinations, sometimes venturing beyond published specifications. In statistical terms, I occasionally commit a few acts of *model misspecification* (or statistical sins! 😊). Relying on published science and even strict scientific methods and Occam's razor principles sometimes bring concrete-tunnel views, as such avoiding them would make some odd sense-sometimes.
I am neither a solar physicist nor a professional climate scientist, and I remain grateful to people such as @TamithaSkov, whose space-weather YouTube courses I have benefited from , climate scientists @judah47, Dr. Simon H. Lee, @SteelCityCoach , Mark P. Baldwin (QBO) , Leif Svalgaard, Scafetta Nicolas, @JimWindweather, @AljareerMJO and many others whose informative contributions have helped broaden my understanding.
By combining historical climatic reconstructions, instrumental observations, and space-weather archives, I have identified and retrospectively reconstructed approximately 500 potential SSW events dating back to 1640, with varying degrees of confidence and historical reliability. I rely mostly on the weather (memory) , trying to model when all necessary ingredients would combined and interact to form a phenomenon recurrence. Uncovering the climatic memory imprints represents what's possible/predicted .
There is still much to explore, but I believe these records offer valuable opportunities to investigate atmospheric memory, external forcing, and the potential to extend SSW predictability well beyond conventional forecasting horizons.
Thank you again for your encouragement and for sharing this scientific journey! 🙏
Hi Boby & Thank you for your trust and support.
The same statistical methods using space weather triggers had also successfully predicted the November 2025 odd polar vortex SSW with a lesd time of 3+ months and if were not lazy that time i'd have post it 5 months ahead. The methods used are evidence-informed. Much recent published physical scientific evidence supports the linkage between solar storms, atmospheric angular momentum, ocean tide variability , space-weather indices with the QBO with polar vortex dynamics and SSW in near instantaneous impact in a matter of weeks .
I have made a forecast for another possible December 2026 and February 2027 last week on mg page account and i hope they will succeed as well.
Warmest regards from Jordan,
Mr. M.
British Isles Weather retweeted
Im so glad this guy is being loudly slandered rn I hate his grown ass so bad
British Isles Weather retweeted
50,000 people in one week. That’s how many demand an inquiry into Britain’s role in Gaza.
Andy Burnham’s Labour says there’s no need. We say they’re hiding something. At 100,000 we force a debate in Parliament.
Palestinians deserve the truth. Sign:
petition.parliament.uk/petit…
British Isles Weather retweeted
They colonized land. Now they colonize the atmosphere. Same greed, new frontier. #StopEcocide
3C of global warming is projected by 2050, based on the most pessimistic extrapolation of data.
Such rapid global warming would make adaptation impossible. Are politicians going to take this seriously, or would they rather fill their pockets with lobbyists' cash?
Source: doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae…
Even the more conservative estimates may be devastating for humanity.
How the hell did you predict an SSW that far out?
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
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British Isles Weather retweeted
Time travelers
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
🔋Powered by Aviatech Jordan & UAE-Dubai — Poultry Farm Equipment & Integrated Farming Solutions
Aviatech Jordan
aviatech-mena.com/allservice…
We’re watching the government turn into Big Brother in real-time
