@WeatherCast3

Nathaniel Tabor / Meteorologist / father and husband / lover of all things weather

 Houston Tx
Joined March 2022
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Sometimes I do miss living in Japan quite a bit.
Yuki@sNRIltvQcZ467815h
札幌初雪
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Here comes the rain
NWS Climate Prediction Center
@NWSCPCOct 22
Much of the U.S. is leaning toward a wet end to October into the beginning of November! Above-normal precipitation is broadly favored, with the strongest probabilities focused over parts of coastal southern California and the Southwest, and lower chances elsewhere.
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued October 22, 2026 valid October 30 to November 5, 2026 depicts broad chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the U.S. 60 to 70 percent chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated over coastal southern California, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. 50 to 60 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of California, stretching through the southern half of Nevada and Utah, into Oklahoma and most of Texas. Broader 40 to 50 percent chances and 33 to 40 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the U.S., with the exception of Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and New England, where near-normal precipitation is favored.

ALT The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued October 22, 2026 valid October 30 to November 5, 2026 depicts broad chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the U.S. 60 to 70 percent chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated over coastal southern California, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. 50 to 60 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of California, stretching through the southern half of Nevada and Utah, into Oklahoma and most of Texas. Broader 40 to 50 percent chances and 33 to 40 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the U.S., with the exception of Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and New England, where near-normal precipitation is favored.

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This is amazing. Radial shear and vortex rossby waves shaping the eyewall of champi into a hexagonal shape. Similar vortex dynamics can be seen at the poles Saturn. Incredibly intense vortex represented here.
Jesse Ferrell
@WeatherMatrixOct 21
Also Super Typhoon #Champi
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You will be very hard pressed to find a better satellite representation of a tropical cyclone. Super Typhoon Champi should be on the cover of textbooks. Just a beautiful storm.
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That’s definitely the sub tropical jet starting to really fire as we move towards Halloween. Going to start getting very rainy in the southern tier of the U.S. it seems.
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Incoming heavy storms on the west side of Houston, keep an eye out for minor street flooding/ponding as these will drop heavy rainfall.
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After a brief cool shot this weekend it’s looking like warmth’s returns for a good chunk of North America. However, looking into the longer range on the euro weeklies it’s becoming increasingly obvious (at least on guidance) that our El Niño will be exerting itself on the pattern more and more the deeper we get into fall. Notice the sub tropical jet beginning to show up in the long range with undercutting across the southern tier of the U.S., and higher than normal precipitation analogies beginning to show themselves as well.
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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Andy Hazelton
@AndyHazeltonOct 9
The Florida Big Bend (including Tallahassee) will be outside the "core" of Isaias, but will be on the "dirty side" to the east of the center, with a lot of training bands coming in. Mesoscale modeling suggests that these bands could have cells capable of producing tornadoes. We've seen Gulf storms interacting with a trough become prolific tornado producers even well away from the center/coast. Examples include Ivan, Beryl, and Milton. Definitely pay attention to warnings tonight. Have a way to get warnings even after you go to bed, and make sure phone emergency notifications are turned on.
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Compact but powerful storm this morning. Eye is definitely trying to clear out before moving ashore near Pensacola later tonight into tomorrow.
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1030 pm CDT -- Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Isaias has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The minimum central pressure is down to 982 mb. Tropical Cyclone Update: nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI…
GeoColor Image of Hurricane Isaias

ALT GeoColor Image of Hurricane Isaias

Tropical Cyclone Update Text for Isaias

ALT Tropical Cyclone Update Text for Isaias

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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
NWS Houston
@NWSHoustonOct 6
🌀A tropical disturbance now has a 100% formation chance and a depression could form soon. 🌀 No major impacts expected for SE Texas yet, but expect gusty winds & building seas at the coast. Stay tuned! #txwx #houwx
A weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston, Texas, dated 12 PM October 6, 2026, showing a tropical weather outlook with a 100 percent formation chance for a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, noting that a tropical depression is likely to form soon and move east-northeast before turning northward.

ALT A weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston, Texas, dated 12 PM October 6, 2026, showing a tropical weather outlook with a 100 percent formation chance for a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, noting that a tropical depression is likely to form soon and move east-northeast before turning northward.

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100PM CDT: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit hurricanes.gov
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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Andy Hazelton
@AndyHazeltonOct 5
Taking a look at the environmental factors for the potential Gulf system this week, it's a mixed bag. Favorable factors: -SST is above average pretty much across the board still. -The upper level winds will be very divergent, with a jet entrance region to the NE. Lots of synoptic lift. Unfavorable factors: -Persistent westerly shear over the system. -Upshear dry air. The shear+dry air combo is gonna be pretty tough for the favorable factors to overcome, but we'll see.
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8 am EDT Oct 5 - A trough in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Visit hurricanes.gov for updates.
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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
NWS Houston
@NWSHoustonOct 2
A special weather statement has been issued for Atascocita TX, Barrett TX and Crosby TX until 4:15 PM CDT
This graphic displays a special weather statement plotted on a map. The statement is in effect until 4:15 PM CDT. The statement includes Atascocita TX, Barrett TX and Crosby TX. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT. The threats associated with this storm are wind gusts up to 40 MPH and no hail is expected. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure until the storm passes.

ALT This graphic displays a special weather statement plotted on a map. The statement is in effect until 4:15 PM CDT. The statement includes Atascocita TX, Barrett TX and Crosby TX. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT. The threats associated with this storm are wind gusts up to 40 MPH and no hail is expected. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure until the storm passes.

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Time lapse on the east side of town showing potent updraft bases already establishing themselves. More rain on the way today across SE Texas
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Flooding is going to become an issue overnight tonight in the city and in the viewing area of Houston. Please stay weather aware tonight and DO NOT drive through standing water
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Quite the outbreak of tornadic supercells in the Texas panhandle this evening. Please head any and all warnings and stay tuned to local weather stations in this area.
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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
NWS Houston
@NWSHoustonSep 29
Locally, very few changes were made to the forecast. Portions of Southeast Texas are situated in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
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Heads up
National Weather Service
@NWSSep 27
A multi-day heavy rain and flash flooding event will develop across the Four Corners region on Monday and expand into the south-central U.S. by midweek.
Heavy rainfall and flood hazard outlook for the Southwest into the Central US, issued Sept 27, 2026 4:00 PM CDT; forecasts 3–6 inches (locally higher) across New Mexico, west Texas and southern-to-central Plains with possible flash, urban and river flooding—avoid flooded areas.

ALT Heavy rainfall and flood hazard outlook for the Southwest into the Central US, issued Sept 27, 2026 4:00 PM CDT; forecasts 3–6 inches (locally higher) across New Mexico, west Texas and southern-to-central Plains with possible flash, urban and river flooding—avoid flooded areas.

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