Statistical Data Analyst , Statistical programmer, Applied statistician & Bio-statistician. ⛔No Private messages 👉 🚫📩❌.
Irbid city Of Jordan
Joined October 2017
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How would you rate the accuracy and practical usefulness of my long-range forecasts for Autumn 2025 and Winter 2026 so far?
(Rating Scale):
(5🌟) Excellent (Highly accurate & very useful)
(4🌟) Good (Mostly accurate & useful)
(3🌟) Moderate (Mixed performance)
(2🌟) Low accuracy (Limited usefulness )
(1🌟) Not useful / Missed expectations
Your feedback helps refine future outlooks and improve regional targeting.
Please also mention your country/region in the comments so I can prioritize areas of highest relevance and usability .
🟥🟦-Bridging Numerical-Dynamical Weather Prediction and Statistical Analog Forecasts for ENSO ( Elnino Behavior ) for 2027
An examination of Professor Paul Roundy’s (@PaulRoundy1) latest dynamical analyses and map projections concerning ENSO and atmospheric angular momentum and global circulation regimes reveals a notable alignment with my independent statistical analog and signal-processing models for 2027, which draw on at least 32 potential analog years selected from the 1850–2025 historical record.
Evaluating the trajectories of multiple indices in the linegraphs, including the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), ENSO Modoki Index (EMI), and Atmospheric Angular Momentum Gate Index (AMGI), reveals several potentially meaningful physical-statistical convergences.
🟥Persistence of El Niño’s Atmospheric Footprint
While RONI and EMI exhibit progressively declining trends toward spring, MEI maintains elevated anomalies into June . This pattern may be consistent with the possibility that atmospheric responses and momentum feedbacks persist even as oceanic ENSO anomalies begin to weaken. It also highlights the importance of distinguishing the evolution of oceanic indicators from the persistence of associated atmospheric circulation anomalies.
The Multivariate MEI ENSO index incorporate wind and pressure equatorial values, so it is an indirect measure of atmospheric coupling Which suggests that Elnino imprint may still continue until June before it is expected to decline faster the rest of 2027 as shown in the Line-graph.
🟦Atmospheric Angular Momentum and QBO Teleconnections
The AMGI time series indicates a pronounced positive surge from January through April, followed by a steep decline into negative territory by mid-summer and a subsequent rebound in autumn. This evolution raises the possibility of a seasonal transition in atmospheric angular momentum and its associated circulation regimes, potentially interacting with tropical vertical wind shear and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO).
However, the relationship between AMGI and QBO phase requires further verification against independent QBO observations and established dynamical diagnostics when they are available to me by December 2026.
🟩Synthesis: Bridging Statistical and Dynamical Approaches
The apparent convergence between these independent analytical perspectives illustrates the potential value of combining numerical-dynamical weather prediction with long-range statistical analogs. By integrating empirical signal decomposition, historical analog selection, and physically informed circulation diagnostics, this approach seeks to identify potentially meaningful large-scale signals beyond the conventional seasonal forecasting horizon.
These preliminary findings remain experimental rather than conclusive. The 2027 statistical outlook will undergo further refinement in December 2026 as updated observations and late-year boundary conditions become available.
The objective is not to replace dynamical predictions by Paul, but to investigate whether independent statistical evidence can provide complementary insights into the evolution of ENSO and global atmospheric circulation.
NB/ The Linegraphs for the climate indexes are cumulative propensity mean anomalies, also the GLAAM gate index is a home-made 154 year extended proxy for atmospheric AAM .
#ENSO #ElNino #ClimatePrediction #AtmosphericDynamics #StatisticalForecasting
It's obvious that this whole El Niño event traces profoundly back to the collosal April westerly wind event. But also look at the right panel, it is obvious that the event is also depleting Pacific warm water volume, with integrated Pacific wide volume of water above the 20C isotherm has been declining since April. Although some of that excess heat went directly to space, much of it was transferred as sensible and latent heat into the atmosphere, which will be impacting weather outcomes over the next several months. The event will almost certainly lead to a period of heat deficit (relative to the long term trend line) in the climate system. It is interesting that the warmest naturally achieved heat signals reflect times with the earth is actually cooling.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Todays 00z is (by memory) the first run period so far, that all 3 main ensemble systems agree on a #polarvortex wind reversal and an official Stratospheric Warming event. The 2 main single-run models also agree on a reversal, while the AIFS remains the only one yet to show a wind reversal, likely limited by its own design, or time will tell.
While its clear that something is going to happen in the stratosphere, what people want to know is how it will change their daily weather. I think we are still not at a point where we can definitively say "ok THIS is what will change for you".
We all know the usual impacts following an SSW event in mid-winter, and it can greatly increase the chance colder air and snowfall across parts of the United States, Europe, and other mid-latitudes, at least on average.
But we are very early in the season, dealing with the earliest SSW event on record if verified, but we are also dealing with a most easterly based Super El Nino on record. This puts the atmosphere in a very unforgiving setup to find any typical SSW impact right now. Just something to keep in mind as the situation unfolds
💡 Validating Pre-Instrumental Early Polar Vortex Disruptions :
The November 1807 Polar SSW Event Case Study.
💡🧵👇 In my statistical reconstruction, 1807 emerged as a top-tier candidate for an early-season November Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), nearly 140 years before the modern reanalysis era began in 1947.
To cross-validate this signal, I examined the reconstructed climate archive from the University of Bern’s ModE-RA project.
1️⃣ November 1807: Minimal hemispheric Rossby wave activity is apparent in the reconstructed fields, potentially representing a relatively quiet preconditioning phase before a stronger tropospheric response.
2️⃣ December 1807 : A pronounced planetary Rossby wave train emerges, with alternating troughs and blocking ridges across the Northern Hemisphere, as highlighted in the boxes. This Rossby-wave train often happens post A major SSW event ( although). In this case December May have been preceded by a late November SSW at farthest appreciation , partly confirming the Solar statistically Predicted November SSW event for the year under study-1807 .
This month-to-month transition is consistent with a possible evolution toward stronger tropospheric wave activity and coupling. However, it does not, by itself, confirm that an SSW occurred. Independent stratospheric evidence would be needed to establish that diagnosis.
My reconstruction incorporates solar and space-weather predictors, QBO proxies , atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) indices reconstruction , cosmic-ray indicators, and tree-ring records to investigate potential historical SSW signals.
📊 Database status: More than 540 candidate SSW events reconstructed from 1640 onward, with projections extending through 2050 ( still under validation) .
🚨Nevertheless, I agree that early-season Polar Vortex disruption or weakening during November is unusual and relatively rare , specifically early in November is an odd occurrence .
🚨 Want to independently test the 1807 case?
Explore the successive months spanning 1807–1808 using the University of Bern’s ModE-RA Climate Explorer (ClimeApp v1.6). Compare the reconstructed synoptic patterns using composites and anomaly fields:
🔗 mode-ra.unibe.ch/climeapp/
🔗 Previous post: nitter.gq/Statisticizer/status/2…
#SSW #PolarVortex #AtmosphericScience #ClimateHistory #RossbyWaves
🌐Using statistical methods applied to a climatic archive extending back to 1750, I identified the following years as potential November SSW analogs , exhibiting signatures consistent with either of ( a major SSW with full wave propagation, vortex stretching, splitting, or elongation ) :
1805, 1807, 1877-1878, 1883, 1937, 1959, 1960, 1962, 1982-1983, 1984, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2026.
The years shown in bold exhibit the closest overall climatic resemblance to November 2026 in terms of mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and upper-level 500 hPa geopotential height configurations. This similarity emerges from a cluster analysis in which November 2026 sits comfortably within the corresponding cluster centroid, indicating a strong degree of synoptic pattern affinity-possibly.
Among these candidates, 1807 emerged as the year with the strongest statistical signal for a potential November SSW event, irrespective of its timing within the month.
These findings represent statistical analog signals derived from the historical climatic archive, rather than confirmation that an SSW will occur.
@judah47
@ScottSabolFOX8 These are statistical reconstruction based analyses of possible past SSW imprint beyond the instrumental age , and may still need re-validation using whichever relevant proxies.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
𝐀 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝-𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐒𝐒𝐖 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭. 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭?
Following up on my post below: I've written up the full analysis on the World Climate Service blog, using WCS forecast data and charts. Here are the questions I'd want answered if I were on a power or gas desk.
𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝?
No. On October 27, U10/60°N was about +19.5 m/s, close to its normal of +21.3 m/s for the date. This is a forecast, not an event.
𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥?
Unusually consistent. Across seven ensembles, 60.8% to 82.4% of members drop below 0 m/s at least once, mostly between November 4 and 11, and the ECMWF, GFS and CMC deterministic runs all reverse. The WCS run-history heatmaps show recent runs trending weaker, not stronger. The catch: ensemble means hover near zero and individual members straddle it, so whether this is a brief crossing or a prolonged easterly episode is still open. That difference matters downstream.
𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐮𝐧𝐮𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐞?
The earliest major SSWs since 1958 came on November 28, in 1968 and 2025. A reversal on November 4–10 would beat that by roughly three weeks.
𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐇𝐃𝐃𝐬?
Not on its own. Some major SSWs are followed by a negative AO or NAO and cold outbreaks; others barely reach the surface. If a response does come, the commonly cited lag is about two to six weeks, which from an early-November reversal points to mid-November through late December. Treat it as a change in the range of outcomes, not a cold forecast.
𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭?
Whether the observed wind actually reverses, whether the anomaly works down into the lower stratosphere, and what AO/NAO, blocking and regional HDD guidance do over the following weeks.
The full write-up has all 10 charts, model-by-model run histories and an FAQ. Link in the first comment.
#PolarVortex #SSW #Stratosphere #EnergyMeteorology #NaturalGas #PowerMarkets
𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐫𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐯𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐱 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐨 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 (𝐒𝐒𝐖) 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 1958 𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫?
The latest numerical weather prediction guidance, available through the World Climate Service climate index feed as of October 28, shows substantial weakening of the zonal-mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60°N (U10/60°N), with multiple models forecasting a reversal from westerly to easterly winds in early November.
𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰?
• 𝐄𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞:: Across seven ensemble forecast models, 60.8% to 82.4% of members forecast U10/60°N below 0 m/s on at least one day during their respective forecast periods. The largest daily percentages generally occur between November 4 and 11.
• 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞: The latest ECMWF high-resolution, GFS, and CMC forecasts also predict a reversal to easterly winds.
• 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Successive GEFS Extended runs have shifted toward substantially weaker U10/60°N values. The October 27 00Z ensemble-mean forecast falls below the historical ERA5 record minimum for several corresponding calendar dates.
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭?
The earliest major SSWs in the ERA5 record since 1958 occurred on November 28 in 1968 and 2025.
Under the commonly used wind-based definition, a reversal of the observed daily-mean zonal-mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60°N from westerly to easterly during November–March is the principal criterion for identifying a major SSW, subject to additional event-classification criteria.
#PolarVortex #SSW #Stratosphere #EnergyMeteorology #Meteorology #Energy
Irbid City, northern Jordan 🇯🇴
🌧️ After Jordan’s first rainfall of the season arrived overnight, following a prolonged delay, hopes are turning toward a wetter November.
Weak westerly zonal winds this season may have contributed to the delayed autumn rainfall.
November, however, looks promising. Hoping for a much-needed shift toward wetter conditions!
هذه الفئات المتطرفة قابلة للتجدد وإعادة إنتاج نفسها، لأنها في جوهرها ليست مجرد تنظيمات، بل أفكار وتيارات أيديولوجية قادرة على إعادة تشكيل نفسها بأشكال مختلفة , بل تمتلك قدرات عالية على التخفي الاجتماعي و التسلل لفئات شبيهة قابلة للتطرف اصلا و لديها مقومات التطرف و مكوناته الاساسية .
ما نعيشه اليوم هو أحد تداعيات فتح الأبواب على مصراعيها أمام الجهاد في أفغانستان خلال ثمانينيات وتسعينيات القرن الماضي، في ظل تساهل حكومات وأجهزة استخبارات عربية مع هذا التوجه، وبدعم وتعبئة أمريكيين مباشرين آنذاك.
ضيوف الحلقة من جيل أصغر سنًا، ولم يعايش أيٌّ منهم تلك الظروف. أتذكر جيدًا كيف كان بعض المتطرفين يتنقلون بحرية بين المدارس والمساجد، ويلقون خطبًا حماسية عن الجهاد والحور العين في الجنة، سواء خلال الطابور الصباحي في المدارس أو عقب الصلوات مباشرة. ولحسن حظنا، كان والدي عسكريًا، وقد حذّرنا منهم في ذلك الوقت، ما ساعدنا على تجنب التأثر بخطابهم.
هذا التيار امتداد لظاهرة اجتماعية وعقائدية متجذرة، وقد يستغرق إضعافها عدة عقود . ولا يكفي التعامل معها أمنيًا أو قانونيًا و اكاديميا ؛ بل لا بد من برامج تأهيل ومراجعة فكرية ونفسية واجتماعية للأفراد الذين يتبنون الفكر التكفيري، مع مراعاة اختلاف دوافعهم وظروفهم، وتوفير الإشراف والمتابعة اللازمين لإعادة دمجهم في المجتمع .
للأسف، هناك جانب تطبيقي يغيب عن كثير من هذه النقاشات و حتى الحكومات بالشرق الاوسط . فالدكتور، مع كامل التقدير لجهده، يبدو أقرب إلى الباحث الأكاديمي الذي يركز على تحليل الظاهرة وتحديد عوامل الانحراف والتطرف للماضي كمن يشرح مريض قد فارق الحياة كمحاولة اخيره لارجاعه للحياة ، دون الانتقال بالضرورة إلى تصميم تدخلات عملية قابلة للتطبيق تمنع الوفاة من المرض اصلا .
الاقتصار على المعالجة الأمنية والقانونية للارهاب قد يؤدي، في بعض السياقات، إلى توسيع دائرة التعاطف مع هذه الجماعات داخل البيئات التي تمتلك أصلًا قابلية للتأثر بخطابها ، بدلًا من الحد من انتشارها. البحث الاكاديمي بحد ذاته مهم، لكنه يظل محدود الأثر إذا اقتصر على تحديد العوامل الديموغرافية والفكرية المرتبطة بالتطرف تنتهي في ادراج و اراشيف الجامعات , و (سلامة تسلمك)، دون توظيف نتائجه عمليًا لتطوير أدوات استباقية تساعد على رصد المخاطر والتدخل المبكر بشكل استباقي- قبل تفاقمها، بدلًا من الاكتفاء بمحاولة إطفاء الحريق بعد اندلاعه . ليش نستنى ليتكرر الحدث كل مرة؟
من الممكن عبر طرق الذكاء الاصطناعي و برامج الحوسبة و تطبيقات الاحصاء تطوير مؤشرات ديموغرافية واجتماعية ومكانية تساعد على تقييم مخاطر تشكّل بؤر التطرف داخل بعض المجتمعات والأحياء، بالاستناد إلى بيانات مجمعة و غير معرفة الهوية ، ومؤشرات جغرافية واجتماعية، وتحليل الأنماط العامة للنشاط الرقمي، ضمن ضوابط قانونية وأخلاقية واضحة تحمي الخصوصية وتمنع الوصم الجماعي . تم استخدام هذه التقنيات في تحديد بؤر الاوبئة و بشكل ناجح و عملي و سريع اثناء وباء كوفيد و الفكرة ( عبر فكرة بناء هاكاثون) قابل للنسخ و التكرار عبر استغلال وسائط السوشال ميديا , و هذا سهل التطبيق و بشكل عملي عبر ال web-scrabing و استغلال مخرجات البحث العلمي عن مكونات التطرف الاساسية التي ذكرتها باعلى المنشور . الاحصاء السكاني الاخير اعتقد وفر اغلب البيانات الاقتصادية-الاجتماعية-التعليمية للمساكن ضمن البلاد و اعتقد نحن بمنتصف الطريق لتطبيقات افضل للبيانات في صنع القرار المبني على الدليل و البرهان-ان شاء الله .
التحدي الحقيقي ليس فقط في فهم أسباب التطرف، بل في تحويل هذا الفهم إلى منظومة عملية للإنذار المبكر والوقاية والتأهيل وإعادة الإدماج . وهذا ما نحتاج إليه إذا أردنا معالجة جذور الظاهرة، لا مجرد التعامل مع نتائجها كمن يقود السيارة عبر النظر فقط بمرآة سقف المركبةعبر النظر في الشارع للخلف فقط، لانه باي َوقت سيدهس أحد المارة او يتهور بدون ان يرى ما بالافق .
@JafarHassan @RulaAlhroob @MoGC_JO @BisherKhasawneh @AlmaitahSamih @HILDAAJELAT1 @PrimeMinistry @amershowbaki
مع كامل الاحترام و التقدير و عذرا على الازعاج
العملية الإرهابية التي حدثت في الكرك والعمليات الإرهابية الأخيرة إما لخلايا صغيرة أو ذئاب منفردة | أستاذ النظرية السياسية محمد أبو رمان
#الأردن #الكرك #هنا_المملكة