Mortgage Guy turned degen - follow me for opinions on things that don't matter and losing trades
Joined May 2021
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CashMonty retweeted
U don’t want to be an “ai loser” story. Because an ai loser story will be sold aggressively for months (saas, accenture, chegg, etc)
Justin’s tweet is the first mainstream viral bitcoin ai loser story.
I don’t think he meant to but adds huge story drag to whole sector if ai math progress == bad for btc
btc was previously consensus as quantum loser, but nobody cares about quantum yet, or a flows loser to ai bubble, with mixed impact
This is quite direct, from credible source, on day of new math breakthroughs, and if memes bad imo (Discl long puts) 2d-2w)
CashMonty retweeted
im about to walk into the most abundant balanced wealthy and successful period of my life. i naturally attract good fortune, and i am wealthy in more ways than one
i give myself permission to prosper, and i have the power to build the life that i desire
CashMonty retweeted
im no doomer, but the trend in net worth is falling at an alarming rate .. and house prices have months of declines to go. so many small things matter, but we are likely headed somewhere between "retail recession" and "the big one", but impossible to know which for sure
CashMonty retweeted
$ETH
Still feel like many are confused despite it being pretty self-explanatory in the OP
MTF / HTF can certainly remain bullish but I think the bar is high to remain bullish LTF
CashMonty retweeted
A clear sign 🪧 of what’s to come… The admin is preparing to accelerate 💵 🖨️ to hold down the long end of the curve….
(Hank Paulson told you what’s coming… The question is, Is anybody listening?!)
The joint U.S.-Japan support of the yen is unusual. The way it is being financed is unprecedented, and adds liquidity when the punch bowl of the U.S. economy and markets is already overflowing. on.wsj.com/4w86jUc
CashMonty retweeted
There are now 28 Robinhood utility projects above $1M.
1. ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 at $250M, launchpad
2. solana:92LKNLj4aU9sjUKkgH5mQCuQTPSr42HwF2QrdWDApump at $50M, stock reflection token
3. $STATICS at $30M, bundle 1-16 assets into 1 token
4. $DELTA at $25M, Meteora for Robinhood
5. $INDEX at $20M, create your own index of stocks and receive reflection as stocks
6. $HOOKR at $17M, Uniswap hook launchpad
7. $ARROW at $10M, RWA
8. clan-tech:native at $7M, friendtech for RH
9. $BOW at $6M, Borrow USDG against tokenized stocks, crypto, RWAs and memecoins
10. $DTF at $6M, one token for any basket of assets you pick
11. $HOOD10 at $5M, index of the Top10 RH projects
12. $PROLOGUE at $5M, intelligent fee rerouting with 100% APY for ETH pools
13. $EARN at $5M, earn yield on RH assets, TVL only $50k though
14. $PAID at $5M, launchpad for tokens paired with stocks
15. $TWO at $4M, the same dollars earn lending yield while they rest and trading fees the moment a swap needs them.
16. $WTH at $3M, V4 hooks
17. $FIRE at $3M, get more stock rewards the longer you hold the token
18. vexanium:native at $3M, DeFAI AI-agent trading
19. $CNPY at $3M, launch AI-agents with a token, only $5k in fees so far though
20. $MAST at $2M, turn stablecoins instantly into a distribute stock portfolio
21. ethereum:0x7987f03462200b3d8a072e02c89a8a41dcb124ee at $2M, Build and launch custom Uniswap v4 hooks
22. $STACKERS at $2M, Eleven tokenized stocks and USDG, plus the Pons ecosystem: PONS, ethereum:0x3fe29f85bd9b11ee79ce69374b5560d8f4488fb2, HMM and YOLO. Pick up to three, split your hourly earnings between them. Your split decides what you collect, not how much.
23. $0xZAPS at $1.5M, bundle a number of transactions into one, designed for AI-agents
24. solana:H1m95xHQiVwx39tkZGYDo8Bvyp1QJX8sVzYiPLtqPooL at $1.5M, launchpad with huge runners such as $HOOKR to $20M, $PROLOGUE to $10M, $FRONG to $5M
25. $SCOPL at $1.5M, let your limit order generate fees
26. base:0x0b3ae50babe7ffa4e1a50569cee6bdefd4ccaee0 at $1.4M, spot, perps and prediction markets on Robinhood Chain — driven by a single command from X, Telegram or the web. No app. No seed phrase. Your keys, always.
27. $VYN at $1M, turn a liquidity position into a plain ERC-20 you can trade, lend or post as collateral.
28. $VLR at $1M, $PEAS for Robinhood, wrapped tokens.
They all seem quite bullish, especially 9-27.
$EARN and $CNPY seem the most overrated though since they have very little adoption for quite high MC.
CashMonty retweeted
I think next week’s payrolls print will disappoint, and has decent (though not our baseline) chance of being negative.
Supposed it is a negative print. There is no modern Fed era precedent of Fed hiking after two negative payrolls prints.
Still 50-50?
CashMonty retweeted
A 65k 28 AUG call cost ± $500 on Monday.
In a parallel universe, you:
• Deposited 400 USDt
• Received 2.4k margin
• Full-ported these calls
Your account would now be worth $62k.
In an even better universe, you:
• Did the same with 21 AUG calls
• They traded ± $100 on Monday
Your account would now be worth $270k.
"But these are risky trades"
Not with Second Life.
You get one funded-account run reset.
Worst case, you're back to 400 USDt.
"Why would you offer that?"
Because most people don’t believe in options.
Education won't change that, experience could.
Second Life removes the downside of trying.
Funding makes the upside meaningful.
thalex.com/funded-account
thalex.com/second-life
CashMonty retweeted
Ansem breaks down the exact portfolio makeup to hit a 100x without nuking your account. [2024 Throwback]
If the crypto space marks up 5x and you gambled your entire bag on 100k market cap coins, you will have absolutely nothing to show for it. That is why so many people are angry right now.
The best strategy for anyone new is a 70/30 split. Put 70% in safe plays you do not touch, like Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Coinbase stock. The other 30% is where you can be as degen as you want.
Memecoins are the obvious speculative play, but the real alpha is hidden elsewhere. Right now, literally all the attention is on memes. Crypto investors run completely on momentum, pivot super quickly, and rarely do their own research.
Because of this, there is massive opportunity in finding altcoins that are down from their highs or completely new this cycle with zero attention. If you do the fundamental research and take the trade before the crowd pivots, you win.
It is exactly what happened with Solana post-FTX when everyone thought it was dead. Find the play before the momentum hits.
CashMonty retweeted
Pre Market Thoughts - 2 Jul 26
The last trading day of the week as the US market goes on a holiday tomorrow.
Overnight in Asia trading, we have KOSPI down about 7% thus far from yesterday's close - tracking the drop in EWY pretty well. Meanwhile NKY is down 2.3%. This drop in performance is strongly correlated with the devastation wrought on memory yesterday. $SKYHYNIX is down 11%, ahead of the 10 Jul listing, we could see bids coming into this. Meanwhile $285A has also been hit extremely hard, down 13% for the day, with strong support at ~65k JPY levels.
Overnight, the banks research departments have also dissected the META news. Wells Fargo thinks that "META's decision to sell excess AI compute comes in addition to its model efforts, not replacing them. This likely reflects META opportunistically selling latent compute at high ROIs as compute value climbs. Despite this shift, we dont expect a pullback in META's capex or that overall compute needs are lower."
On Neoclouds - "While we acknowledge these vendors add competitive pressure, we think they more importantly 1)validate the massive AI infra opp and 2)could represent potential strategic acquirers of these models in LT"
So, if fundamentals look sound, why is the market selling off so hard then?
Unfortunately, the answer again points to flows. At this points, flows are dominating the short term price action for semis as we navigate thin books and massive intraday flows.
July while being fantastic seasonally for equities also has historically been a negative month for momentum - (broadening out of the rally) - GS high beta momentum basket as a measure, dropped over 10% yesterday. This reflects the big factor sell off. What does the momentum basket include? All the tickers that have been doing well - ($MU, $SNDK, $INTC, $AMD etc)
Yesterday was NOT a semis sell off - $NVDA was unscathed. Yesterday was a liquidation of the momentum factors. How long can this last? If history is a guide, perhaps a few days (given the severity of the move yesterday). However, markets dont exist in a vacuum, once a stock is sold down hard enough, "value" buyers would start bidding. This can create price action that would look extreme - straight line down, straight line up.
One helpful point to note is that seasonally, July's negative performance for momentum has historically come from its short legs outperforming, not from its long legs going down. This would mean hyperscalers, NVDA rallying. In the bigger picture, this is helpful in continuing the semis cycle, given the increased ability of the hyperscalers to finance out the capex build.
Good luck!
