ChurchOfTheCycle

A bit of a long write-up here. #Bitcoin and $TOTAL3ES (Total crypto market cap without counting stable coins, $BTC and $ETH) are at the beginning of stage 2, which is typically thought as an ideal spot for market participants to enter. This cycle's AI narrative darling, $PLTR, is in stage 2, after hitting 0.5 retracement which is typically early/mid cycle correction behavior. Late cycle correction typically are more drawn out and are shallower. ISM PMI just broke out of 50 earlier in 2026 after being under 50 for 4 years, indicating the start of economic expansion. Copper/Gold ratio bottomed earlier in 2026 after being in a downtrend for 4 years, indicating the start of economic expansion. Japan #Nikkei broke out of a 35-year consolidation in 2025 and has more room to run up. Korean $KOSPI seems to be bottoming at 0.5 retracement with a good reaction, which quite often happens in an early cycle/mid-cycle correction. 50% of the $KOSPI is #Samsung and #SKHynix, both continue to have continued growth acceleration to support the numbers. I doubt that the memory trade is anywhere near done yet. China solana:3aSu9uuDLiWkBQGycJDDSubZEPb6YJjDzULPWZkJn8ic #HangSengIndex had a big run in 2024-2025 just to spend 2026 to retrace back to 0.618 which is a reasonable correction for a likely next leg up, with liquidity likely to spill over to global markets. Their GDP has been growing despite tariffs, youth unemployment and housing crash. Russell 2000 $IWM $RUT is just making higher highs and higher lows. Cathie Wood's $ARKK fund is in a 5-year bullish formation that could be breaking out at anytime, and nobody even cares about what that could mean. $TSLA earnings was not that great, but its weekly trend is flipping bullish regardless. $300 seemed like the number it wanted to hit before finally running up. Market seems to be pricing in future growth which typically happens when it's anticipating economic expansion. $COIN is forming a very painful $COIN base, but is showing key base-forming behavior which could lead to outsized gain shall it finally breaks out. AI data centers could be going through final capitulation zone as they are hitting my crazy targets and finding a decent reaction off of them. With the large caps and market leaders like $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN having great balance sheet and cash flow and with them committed into CAPEX for AI infrastructure, this is not your dot-com bubble and this could keep going on for a while. Narratives and sentiment on this sector is horrible, and massive capitulation followed by short squeeze seems to be in order for $CIFR $IREN $NBIS $WULF $GLXY and other names. $HOOD was the fintech leader that needed to take a breather, while $SOFI plays catch up after solidifying a higher low. Looking at $AFRM and $SHOP - they are two of those stocks that look ready to breakout massively to the upside in 2027 which goes along with economic expansion rather than contraction. There are still tons of names in forming huge bases for years or sometimes even decades that have yet to break out - many of which look like $MU and $INTC prior to their big run-up and are waiting for their turn once accumulation is complete. Long duration bonds are starting to catch a bid at the current levels after forming bullish divergences for years, whereas bond yields seem to be going through a topping process after forming bearish divergences for years. This, of course, happens after everyone including CNN front page started talking about yields. Gold and Silver have been going up for the last 3 years and have finally peaked in 2026 and are both consolidating. Last time Gold peaked was in August 2020, and a very risk on market happened afterwards presumably linked to rotation. I don't give a damn what Kevin Warsh says tomorrow or what the short term market volatility that comes with his nonsense.