Transitionary 70-day Cycle in Bitcoin The concept of the Transition Cycle has been documented on this account for larger yearly cycles via the concept of the "Business Cycle Regime". The general idea is that the dominant cycle acting on a particular asset can change. While an asset is undergoing this transition, the cycle visible in the price chart will be the average of the outgoing cycle length and the incoming cycle length. This is why we forecasted that the Bitcoin cycle would bottom around July/August, not October. We are now applying this concept to the daily cycle in Bitcoin. Most people are aware of the legacy daily cycle length of 60-days. But, as Bitcoin is aligning itself with The Risk Rhythm of the S&P500, it seems to be pushing itself towards the 80-day rhythm for it's dominant daily rhythm. So, we now have what appears to be a Transitionary Daily Cycle in Bitcoin that is taking the average of 70-days. This would be the first live documented case of this under RESM Theory. A cycle curve of this transitionary cycle has been made, and it appears that we are ripe for a bottom. But do keep in mind that this is expected to be a fleeting cycle length, not permanent. $BTC $IBIT

FOMC today. Given what the 3-month yield has been doing, we should not expect a change in the Fed Funds Rate. It is likely to stay pat. This doesn't mean that you shouldn't expect some volatility around the announcement time and press conference.

Just found out about "compute" futures that are coming up. This upsets me because I haven't published the Compute as Utility article that I have been meaning to publish for a while now. Compute is the latest iteration of the Telecommunications Technological Paradigm Lineage, which always ends up as utility and commoditized. The inclusion of "compute" futures in the futures market is a clear step in that direction.

The popular Dot Com fractal with the Netscape IPO to ChatGPT release timing peaks in 2028, right around where the current 7-year cycle of The Risk Rhythm should peak. There will be a major pullback in 2029, and this will fool most market participants into thinking that the fractal matches, and that will be THE TOP. Only for the market to rip higher into the real 105-year speculative excess bubble.

Bitcoin Transition Daily Cycles Bitcoin has been exhibiting a daily cycle that is on average 70 days long for at least a year and a half. The legacy bitcoin daily cycle is ~60 days and one of the main daily cycle lengths in the Risk Rhythm is ~80 days. So this is the average of those two cycle lengths, further enforcing the idea that Bitcoin is undergoing a transition to align with the Risk Rhythm of the S&P 500. If this is to hold, we should expect a daily cycle low right about now. Otherwise, we might have seen a daily cycle failure, and the best case scenario would be waiting until a mid-cycle low in mid-November for the next impulsive move. $BTC $IBIT

The Risk Rhythm We are still in the window for a bottom on the 40-day cycle. The SPX got a confirmation out of the Oct 16 low, but the Nasdaq did not. A secondary low can happen, and then re-trigger the bottoming process. Despite this, the price action is not favorable to a large move higher. It looks more likely that we have to wait until the 120-day cycle bottoms in mid-November before we get the next decisive move higher into the end of the year. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ

Oil Daily and Weekly Cycles Oil has hit the VAH and descending trend line again. Expect a bit of a pullback here, it could be rather small or even sideways, for a few days. After that, upside pressure should resume with two potential peak timings of ~Nov 3 and ~Nov 18. A deep pullback might point to these peak timings being revisits to the trend line. A shallow pullback probably points to breaking the trend line. The daily and weekly cycle curves are now switched to the "bull" view. $CL $USO

This is something I have never thought about, because I don’t use Elliot wave or know it well, but the 105-year cycle is modeled well as a 5-wave count where waves 1, 3, and 5 are the three 35-year bubbles of the RESM in succession.

This is an excellent graphic showing how the slope of all charts will only get steeper as we head towards the end of The Big Parabola.

The last 2.5 months have been dedicated to building out the quantitative tools of RESM theory, and work involving my PhD research: 1. Monthly Risk Price Index (est. 1692) 2. Yearly Risk Price Index (est. 1263) 3. Decadal Risk Venture Index (est. ~800 BC) 4. Yearly Economic Downturn Index (est. 1260) I will consider sharing parts of this, but consideration to my PhD research and publications needs to be paid. Now that 1 and 2 are pretty much in a complete state. I will return to writing the first two books I promised about 6 months ago, which are ~50% written. I aim to complete them by the end of the year.

Is the Circle (CRCL) chart giving it away? RWA hype cycle right around the corner? @OVmarkets @lourenco_vs @quantdata21 $CRCL $RWA

Aside from oil and bonds, brutal day for longs yesterday. Gold is weaker than expected, already breaking below the 50 day cycle anchor. This provides a good opportunity to showcase a new feature that has been in the works: Different average curves for bull, bear, and neutral instances of cycles. The same underlying cyclical rhythm can appear characteristically different if the trend is up versus down. So, different average curves can help track the cycle even better when it is clear if the cycle will be positive or negative. I will try to showcase that today with both the Gold and Oil daily cycles.

Gold Daily Cycles Gold seems to be setting up a move off of the lows, with both the 50-day and the 13-day cycles bottoming. Again, RESM theory does not expect a large move, or new highs anytime soon. This would most likely resolve with a move back into the range and a rejection at an important level such as the POC. $GLD $GOLD $XAUUSD $XAU