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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle is real - and it's one of the most powerful tools for timing the S&P500.
I'm Kerry Balenthiran, author of The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle, and I run an algorithmic long/short system designed around proven cycle phases.
Follow @TheCyclesTrader for:
- Regular cycle position updates
- High level long/short bias on $SPX
- Historical pattern analysis
- Data driven market insights
The cycle never sleeps!
(Always do your own research)
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
I have never considered this, but this is a perfect illustration of the 105-year cycle of RESM theory. The 105-year cycle is composed of three 35 year cycles, each having their manic top ~25 years into their individual cycles, with the last one being the biggest. Each one of those is modeled perfectly as a 5 wave Elliot wave count. I don’t know EW well, but is there a special name for a 5-wave count where wave 5 is by far the largest?
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
Replying to @TheCyclesTrader @CryptoCycleGod
I count 5 waves up completing in 2035 after 103 years for DJIA. Then, if it corrects from 215,000 top it would take a move half way down the entire 103 year structure, which would be at around 25,000 by 2037. A crash of below 90%. Depression style...
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
Elon Musk just made Turbo Boost a reality.
A bunch of guys my age have been waiting our whole lives for this.
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
Replying to @OVmarkets
THE 19 years cycle never has been wrong, since 1720
Professional poker player Phil Ivey won $9.6 million at the Borgata. The casino paid him, then sued to get it back. At London’s Crockfords, he won another £7.7 million. They refused to pay.
In the video below, Ivey says his job is to play the game, find a weakness in the casino and use it to win. He calls the casino his opponent and points out that it spends millions of dollars protecting its games.
He wanted a specific brand of cards, a Cantonese-speaking dealer and the same decks reused. The casinos agreed. His playing partner, Cheung Yin Sun, asked the dealer to rotate certain cards, presenting it as a matter of luck.
The cards had tiny differences along their backs. Once high-value cards faced one way and the others faced the opposite way, those differences helped identify what was coming next.
Ivey never marked the cards. The dealer handled them. But the casino didn’t understand what those requests were doing to the odds.
He called it an advantage. The casinos called it cheating. In 2017, the UK Supreme Court ruled against him: persuading the dealer to arrange the cards crossed the line.
The casino had approved his requests while expecting to win. Ivey knew something about its own cards that it didn’t.
Was he cheating, or should a casino know its own game before accepting someone’s money?
“I have your book, amazing 🤩🙏”
Great to receive feedback like this 😀
Replying to @TheCyclesTrader
Long time target: end of 2028 for both SP500 and BTC.
Probably fits your 17-18 years cycle also 👍.
I have your book, amazing 🤩🙏
September was a terrible month for me. My index trading account is -5% ytd vs SPX up 12.8%. My account has swung from -8% in Feb to +22% in May to where I am now. That’s leveraged swing trading for you!
Bitcoin trading is going better. I am -16% since I started trading it in Oct 25 vs btc down -32%. I was -55% not that long ago so I’m happy that btc bounced from its bottom.
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
Replying to @yuriymatso
This log trend chart is a perfect illustration of the 35-year cycle. It can be observed in markets going all the way back the Venetians in the 1400s.
1895 + 35 = 1930
1930 + 35 = 1965
1965 + 35 = 2000
2000 + 35 = 2035
Kerry Balenthiran retweeted
In his interview with @PeterMcCormack Russell Napier points out that a 50-year French government bond issued in 2021 with a 0.5% coupon has, as of the interview, lost roughly 78% of its capital value, while French CPI has risen 18% over the same period. This has effectively wiped out the purchasing power of the supposedly "risk-free" asset.
youtube.com/watch?v=hF9tWw1g…






























