@EpsilonPM

professional forecaster (gambler) | 300x+ YTD on PMs

 Utah
Joined November 2025
  • Tweets223
  • Following898
  • Followers780
31Media
✅ there is 0 alpha
James Van Straten
@btcjvs5h
Replying to @emilyjnicolle
There is no alpha in prediction markets
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Replying to @mansourtarek_
@mansourtarek_ S+ virtue signaling once again by protecting trust fund babies from pissing away their entire fortune with completely arbitrary under 21 deposit cap there are far better ways to do this btw that aren’t completely brainless
Epsilon
@EpsilonPM3h
Replying to @nickdevor_ @DustinGouker
it’s retarted and hurts sharp traders the most. had to front run this and deposit 30k which is now effectively locked in Kalshi. it’s good to know most ppl under 21 have more than 30k/yr to lose??
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ok idk maybe deposit cap ppl for under 21 is good just seems like more nuanced implementation is optimal 😅
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please be ragebait ... please be ragebait
teo
@teodorio16h
Whenever someone talk about prediction markets as being anything more than betting sites remember to show them this image
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Epsilon retweeted
float
@notesbyfloatOct 26
found a neuron in qwen3.5-4b that makes it talk like her
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oops should’ve full ported
Euan
@EuankerOct 24
1 - Kane 2 - Mbappe 3 - Yamal 4 - Rodri 5 - Messi #getmogged #BallonDor
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all good things must come to an end
DGN Quant
@DegenQuantOct 21
running an hft taker strategy on markets that are so heavily subsidized by the exchange that the maker doesn’t even care about getting picked off is such a beautiful thing
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zoomers didn’t choose gambling we just got priced out of every other way to make money
Watcher.Guru
@WatcherGuruOct 17
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 American boomers over 75 years old now have 15 times the median household wealth of Gen Z and Millennials.
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Epsilon retweeted
Clive
@Clive_99Oct 16
I fucking hate this Friday morning commute
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Can $meta dump already 😭
Lentils@Lentils80Oct 12
I saw a bunch of Muse Wonder outputs from multiple people. This model is such a hot steaming piece of benchmaxxed garbage I couldn't even believe my eyes. Not even Gemini models are this benchmaxxed bro.
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This is a slide from Terence Tao's 'Math 2.0' public lecture yesterday evening at Caltech. I am highly confident that, if the cure actually worked, almost any Stage 4 cancer patient would tell you that human comprehension of its mechanism is completely irrelevant to them.
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Incredibly based
Andrew Curran
@AndrewCurran_Oct 8
Effective November 12th, 2026, abusive behavior towards Claude will be a violation of Anthropic's Usage Policy.
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Epsilon retweeted
Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0Oct 1
Three AI safety researchers just left OpenAI
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kalshi for real world utility 🔥
TroyCuban
@troycubanSep 26
My meth head neighbor was complaining how theres no liquidity for him to hedge up the loot he got from that HVAC unit he destroyed on top of Sam's Club last night
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Epsilon retweeted
Tenobrus
@tenobrusSep 25
real frontier labs are not after consumer tech markets lol cute openclaw is probably worth 5T+ market cap, but is literally nothing vs RSI
Cary Bleasdale@Cary_BleasdaleSep 25
It is entirely possible that in one fell swoop Mark fucking Zuckerberg is about to corner the most lucrative demographic on earth that no other AI model is even aware exists. As in, he might acquire frontier models by BUYING Anthropic in a few years.
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rip I guess it’s over, time to sell everything
Gregory Travis
@greg_travisSep 21
Just a reminder that so-called "Recursive Self Improvement" is not a thing that's actually happening with AI, nor is a thing that can happen with statistical inference Recursive self improvement is something that only a thinking machine can do and AI machines (linear algebra equation solvers) don't and can't think
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👇
AE News
@aenewsSep 21
Bet my $4K to @EpsilonPM $1K that 2+ Millennium Prize Problems won't be solved by AI by the end of 2026 🤝
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I expect Muse won’t be the only agent platform for long, am quite bullish on whatever OAI has been vagueposting about
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Ok i’m not worried anymore, P(doom) to 0
First Squawk
@FirstSquawkSep 11
Trump dismisses concerns that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction.
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Anthropic won’t get anywhere near ASI without the US gov stepping in…
gfodor.id
@gfodorSep 9
They’ll never, ever admit it directly, but it doesn’t take a genius to know what Anthropic’s plans are. Even if some staff can’t admit it to themselves: world domination, via an ASI singleton (see: Bostrom), that front-runs all future human activity to eliminate ex-risk.
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Epsilon retweeted
semi
@SemioticRivalrySep 8
I'm more AI-pilled than >99.99% of the population, but I still got totally destroyed in a bet as to whether a Millennium problem would be solved in the next 16 months, it only took one! AI progress is moving ridiculously fast and it doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon.
OpenAI
@OpenAISep 8
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics. The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra. The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
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