Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions.

Joined September 2021
Reflects the importance of the #palacepolitics perspective and that the official org chart for the U.S. foreign policy apparatus may not reflect who actually has access and influence in the administration.
South Korea cultivated links to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles during tariff talks. Japan used SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son as a back channel to Trump, former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told Reuters reut.rs/42NXN0t
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This also points to another reality: Western aid/support for Ukraine has largely hit its upper limits, in part because of the constraints imposed by the crises in the Middle East: lnkd.in/p/gX2PPePV
A consistent #geopolitical and #geoeconomic rule of thumb: the United States cannot simultaneously pressure both Iran and Russia. The flurry of talk and leaks about possible new Russia-U.S. energy arrangements leads me to think : 1/ xitter.cf/i/trending/21152218968…

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A consistent #geopolitical and #geoeconomic rule of thumb: the United States cannot simultaneously pressure both Iran and Russia. The flurry of talk and leaks about possible new Russia-U.S. energy arrangements leads me to think : 1/ xitter.cf/i/trending/21152218968…

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that 1) resumption of active combat operations in the Middle East is going to occur and 2) the fallout and damage is expected to impact global commodities markets--so keeping Russian options open and available is a guiding principle. 2/
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
The Russian State Duma approved five changes made to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's federal government lineup. ⬇️
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
2/ "Many people fail to grasp the profound, almost insurmountable difficulty of transitioning from a one-off prototype—the kind shown off to generals at exhibitions or testing grounds—to a standardized, mass-produced item supplied to the military at a reasonable price."
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
1/ QUICK THREAD: Russia's Alexey Chadaev, a proponent of the People's VPK and the director of the Ushkuynik accelerator behind the KVN fiber-optic UAV, on overcoming the "Valley of Death" in Russian military start-up tech - translation below: t.me/chadayevru/5239
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🗓️ Member Briefing | Tuesday, November 3 | 12:00 PM EST As winter approaches, the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase. Eurasia Director Emily Holland and Senior Fellow Rob Lee will examine military developments, drone campaigns, evolving demands, and strategic choices facing both sides. ⬇️
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
A week from tomorrow, a generation of think tankers will start their campaigns for jobs in the next administration in earnest.
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🆕 How the Gamification of the Battlefield is Reshaping War by @beehner_lionel and Oleskii Poltorakov #OrbisJournal buff.ly/7D3REpT
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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
Adamsky: Russia Now Considers Europe its Core Geopolitical Rival Plus: Is Trump Appeasing Russia? russiamatters.org/news/russi…
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A serious strategy for de-risking trade should replace metrics of movement with metrics of exposure. Falling direct imports from China answer only part of the question. The rest is how much China-linked content, tooling, and process knowledge remains embedded in strategic goods after they pass through countries such as Mexico and Vietnam. buff.ly/krjvF3e
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Per @asiatimes, is Japan's efforts on space cooperation implicitly a response to this? Comments from JAXA head Hiroshi Yamakawa about imperative of autonomous access to space and activity in space, and need for satellite development. asiatimes.com/2026/10/france…
Four years ago (!) warning that Starlink should only be seen as a temporary solution in part because of it being a private company … xitter.cf/fpri_orbis/status/1581…
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Ukraine case in point: Orange Revolution cohesive in opposition … but coalition fractures in two years after 2004.
In terms of Serbia, winning an election on a wave of popular dissatisfaction is considerably easier than maintaining a functional government. Once in power, Student List will have to confront difficult economic decisions, competing political interests and entrenched networks of influence. Its broad electoral coalition could begin to fracture as soon as these issues require concrete policy decisions. Its ability to survive constitutionally and its ability to remain politically cohesive are very different things. The greatest danger is that a movement united by what it opposes discovers that it cannot agree on what it actually wants to achieve.
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Putin believes strikes on refineries are acceptable costs and Russia benefits from suspensions of these types of aid … esp. with more evidence Moscow is able to outsource its refining capabilities to countries Ukraine cannot strike. xitter.cf/i/trending/21147335395…

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Nikolas Gvosdev retweeted
More from @gbrew24 …
FWIW while today's quadrilateral summit in Tehran may provide an offramp for de-escalation, the absence of the US (or Israel) makes it hard to conceive of one. Plans for re-escalating the conflict are being drawn up in DC and Tel Aviv, not in Tehran (though it is Iran's retaliation that poses the greatest risk to Saudi, Pakistan, and Turkey).
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Via @TelStratLLC …
A highly significant development with implications that go well beyond the meetings in Tehran. For #Tehran, the Mecca Agreement was an important development in its own right. It reflected a growing recognition among regional states that they need to diversify their security partnerships rather than rely exclusively on the United States. This is part of a broader effort to develop a more independent regional security architecture. The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant. It reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime but also an understanding that Iran remains a central regional player whose influence cannot simply be ignored. This is particularly relevant to Iran's relationships with the members of the so called "axis of Resistance", especially the Houthis, even though Tehran's actual control over Houthi decision-making is considerably more limited than many assume. Against the backdrop of a possible resumption of hostilities between Iran and the United States, these meetings are especially important. Gulf states understand that they could pay a devastating price for another war, particularly through attacks on energy infrastructure, ports, and maritime trade. They therefore have a clear interest in encouraging Tehran to moderate its demands while reassuring the Iranian leadership that the Mecca Agreement is not directed against Iran or its interests. There is no contradiction between strengthening regional security cooperation and engaging diplomatically with Iran. In fact, these are two sides of the same strategy: building greater security independence and deterrence while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of confrontation through dialogue. The meetings also highlight an important reality that Washington and Jerusalem should not overlook: even countries deeply concerned about Iran's regional ambitions do not necessarily support another military campaign against it. They understand the limitations of military force and recognize that another war, regardless of its intensity, is unlikely to eliminate the Iranian challenge. It could, however, inflict enormous damage on their economies and regional stability. There is also a broader message for Washington. America's regional partners are increasingly pursuing their own interests, developing independent security arrangements, and maintaining channels of communication with Tehran. Their priorities do not necessarily align with those of Washington, and certainly not with those of the Israeli government. None of this means that the profound differences between Iran and its neighbors have disappeared, or that these diplomatic efforts will necessarily succeed. But it does reflect an important strategic reality: regional governments increasingly recognize that Iran cannot be bombed out of the Middle East, and that any sustainable regional security architecture will eventually have to take its interests and influence into account. The bottom line is that key regional players are increasingly looking for ways to prevent another war and establish a more sustainable security framework. That is a significant strategic development #IranWar #Iran #KSA #Pakistan #Turkey
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More from @gbrew24 …
FWIW while today's quadrilateral summit in Tehran may provide an offramp for de-escalation, the absence of the US (or Israel) makes it hard to conceive of one. Plans for re-escalating the conflict are being drawn up in DC and Tel Aviv, not in Tehran (though it is Iran's retaliation that poses the greatest risk to Saudi, Pakistan, and Turkey).
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Same can be said for Brazil, in this case ignoring that Lula’s poor relations with Trump do not mean he will reevaluate his position on Russia-Brazil relations.
Very important. Tired of simplistic analysis that says SL represents automatic geopolitical change. Russia/China relationship with Serbia is institutional not personal. We need to avoid blue team/red team framings …
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A key point in understanding decision-making … all reflected in the “Washington Rules” slides I share with my students.
People keep asking what “10,000 Stephen Millers” actually means. Let me tell you, because it's simpler than the headline. Stephen Miller started as a junior staffer in a Senate office. He wasn't famous. He wasn't connected. He stayed for years, learned the policy cold, worked harder than everyone around him, and was loyal to his boss and the mission. That's how a junior staffer becomes an assistant to the president. It's not enough to just create right-wing staff. You have to make them humble, loyal, and willing to work harder and later than everyone else. Since 2021, American Moment has trained several thousand young conservatives. Every semester, a small class of paid fellows learns how Washington actually works: how decisions get made, how paper moves, how to staff a principal, how to show up prepared. Our alumni now work across the administration and on Capitol Hill. Elections change who sits in the big chairs. They don't change who writes the memos, staffs the meetings, and implements their principal's decisions — unless you build the people who do. The other side understood this a long time ago. They built institutions to train and place their people, and they are now openly threatening ours for doing the same. We're going to keep building anyway. If you're a young conservative who wants to serve — really serve, not just post — we will train you, we will help you get hired, and we will stand behind you when it gets hard. Personnel is policy. Build the personnel, and the policy follows.
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Very important. Tired of simplistic analysis that says SL represents automatic geopolitical change. Russia/China relationship with Serbia is institutional not personal. We need to avoid blue team/red team framings …
Re Russian influence: Russia is embedded because of its emotional appeal and footprint in the energy sector. Vucic was not Putin's proxy but at best a fellow traveller. The next Serbian leader might downgrade but not cut ties. Further: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780…
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