Husband, dad, investor, sports fanatic!!
Joined February 2021
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I think this is WAY underestimating it. What way way underestimating
Gartner predicts the average Fortune 500 enterprise will have more than 150,000 agents by 2028, up from fewer than 15 in 2025. Jacob Leverich on what that does to observability, at #SnowflakeExpedition.
"How will you make sure you can understand what's happening, and whether it's delivering value?" Telemetry belongs with the data the business owns.
Check out the key takeaways👇🧵
FinallyFoolin retweeted
The market is treating a Dem sweep as an existential threat to AI infrastructure. It’s not.
Data centres can (and already are) being built outside the US. Hyperscalers have major footprints and active expansions across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Canada and LatAm. Power, speed of permitting and cost drive site selection more than pure US policy.
If domestic buildouts slow, capital will simply reallocate. Global AI compute demand doesn’t disappear because Northern Virginia or Texas gets harder to permit. Latency-sensitive training prefers concentrated clusters, but inference, regional capacity and a large share of workloads work fine abroad.
The nutty part is the indiscriminate selling of the whole growth stock complex. High-quality, FCF-positive AI names and infrastructure software companies with multi-year visibility are getting lumped in with pure high-beta, negative-FCF builders that actually do have financing and execution risk.
Policy friction in one country ≠ the end of the AI buildout.
International optionality is real.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
$ALAB
With Hulk smash numbers. Yes narrative winds are swirling but hard numbers don’t lie (at least for the next few Qs)
Again, no slow down in AI. We are still early
Very strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance from $ALAB ...
Q3 revs of $584.9M vs $548.5M est
Q3 revs up +49% QoQ
Q3 revs up +154% YoY
Q3 eps of $1.32 vs $1.19 est
Q3 eps up +65% QoQ
Q3 eps up +169% YoY
Q3 net income margin of 41.6% vs 38.3% in 2025 Q3
Guidance:
Q4 revs of $730-750M vs $655.7M est
Q4 revs guidance (midpoint) implies +27% QoQ
Q4 revs guidance (midpoint) implies +174% YoY (revenue growth is accelerating)
Q4 eps guidance of $1.62-1.66 vs $1.42 est
Q4 eps guidance (midpoint) implies +183% YoY growth (eps growth is accelerating)
Holy shit that Q4 guidance is strong!!!!
No idea how $ALAB is red/flat AH on this report, the stock should be up double digits.
Coming into this Q3 report... the sell side was looking for $6.15 of EPS over the next 12 months... I think $ALAB does at least $7.00 and perhaps $7.30 or better if we see more margin expansion
$ALAB got down to $215 AH, now trading at $232... if we use those lows... there's a chance the stock was trading at ~30x NTM EPS for one of the best growth stories in the entire market... literally trading at a NTM PEG ratio of 0.25x
FinallyFoolin retweeted
$ALAB delivered 😏
• Revenue $585M vs Est. $551M (+154% YoY)
• EPS $1.32 vs Est. $1.19
• Operating Income $262M vs Est. $238M
• Gross Margin 72% vs. Est. 60%
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $740M vs Est. $656M (+174% YoY)
• EPS $1.64 vs Est. $1.42
• Operating Income $336M vs Est. $287M
• Gross Margin 72% vs. Est. 71%
FinallyFoolin retweeted
$ALAB reports after the close today... the implied move is 12-18% but given the current market environment, anything is possible.
$ALAB used to be one of the more expensive ai/semi stocks... less than 6 months ago it was trading at ~100x NTM EPS (with insane growth & margins)... after they report earnings today the stock will likely be trading at less than 35x NTM EPS with EPS growing at 120-160% YoY for the next 12 months.
$ALAB is firing on all cylinders right now which is why revenues are not only growing triple digits YoY but their growth is accelerating... not to mention they're going to report at least 40% QoQ growth in Q3 and then another 25-35% QoQ in Q4.
Good luck to the bulls.
Apple guided margins down last night, and the reason they gave was memory.
Higher memory costs this quarter, and Mac and iPad supply is limited because demand ran ahead of the parts. That's coming from Apple.
So $AAPL is down ~4% premarket and $MU is up ~3.5%. Same story, opposite sides of it.
The Nasdaq 100 is officially in a correction and SOX dropped 7% on Friday. I'm still ~39% in $NVDA, $MU and SK Hynix. Not doing anything at the open.
$AMD reports tonight. The midterms are today. Mostly I'm watching.
Intel just blamed the memory crunch for its guide.
And the memory names are getting sold right along with it.
$INTC -29%. Worst day ever.
PC chips are about half the business, and they're guiding that down 20%+ next quarter. Tan literally said "unprecedented memory crunch" on the call.
So HBM is eating the wafers, and DRAM is tight enough to break PC pricing.
That's not a bear case for $MU and SK Hynix.
It's the bull case, read out loud on someone else's earnings call.
Hynix -7% overnight. MU -5%. SOX -6%.
Same morning, Tokyo Electron says "no signs this is slowing."
I'm ~39% NVDA/MU/SK Hynix. Not touching it today.
Friday tape. Anything with a chip in it gets sold.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
$AMZN + $GOOGL reported and their stocks sold off hard.
Neither is slowing the AI build.
Alphabet maintained its $195–205B 2026 capex guide and said spending will rise "significantly" in 2027. Cloud revenue more than doubled.
Amazon held its ~$220B 2026 capex guide and Jassy said they will spend “meaningfully more” next year. AWS grew 39% (fastest in nearly five years) with 40%+ growth guided for 2027 and 2028.
The market is reacting to a Search miss at Google and sluggish ecommerce growth at Amazon; and to cash burn, not to a slowdown in AI infrastructure demand.
The people building the capacity are still accelerating. The market is focused on the near-term bill. That gap is the opportunity.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
Memory companies are now officially in control.🙃
$SNDK says “demand from our customers is growing faster than our supply” with data center NAND demand expected to grow ~40% in 2027.
And with two-thirds of FY2028 supply already committed under multi-year deals carrying ~$94B in minimum revenue commitments it makes you wonder if the traditional NAND cycle is starting to change.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
That’s exactly what I’m experiencing right now. At work, too—when it comes to longer analyses, I can focus on other tasks while I let the agents do the work.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
Wow, being able to control my grokbots on Tesla while it drives itself is wild.
Closing on a house this week. Last minute, underwriting comes back wanting more docs.
Normally that's my afternoon gone. Digging through email, PDFs, re-sending stuff I already sent.
I was slammed with work, so I told my bot to handle it.
It found what they asked for, pulled it together, and had it ready. I approved it and went back to my meeting.
The closing didn't slip.
This is the part of AI nobody puts in a keynote. Not a chatbot. Just stuff getting done while you're busy doing something else.
Few are asking the simple questions. What's really driving series T or whatever. Seeing SpaceX and now ANT IPO makes the DBx reasoning... Suspect to say the least
release all the numbers.
does 80% yoy become 65% when you remove passthru inference?
what does it become when you remove ai natives?
and how much of it is from one time software license --> service transition?
fcf, RPO, cRPO?
op margin non-gaap, gaap? dilution?
curious ppls want to know
ps: @alighodsi happy for your success. the world is big and life long.
nitter.gq/bhorowitz/status/21150…
FinallyFoolin retweeted
loving the new mode Sridhar. the game is on.
release all the numbers.
does 80% yoy become 65% when you remove passthru inference?
what does it become when you remove ai natives?
and how much of it is from one time software license --> service transition?
fcf, RPO, cRPO?
op margin non-gaap, gaap? dilution?
curious ppls want to know
ps: @alighodsi happy for your success. the world is big and life long.
nitter.gq/bhorowitz/status/21150…
FinallyFoolin retweeted
All this hand-wringing over capex from Facebook, Microsoft, Google and other new entrants is unnecessary.
When products are this good and improving this fast, we won't overbuild; if anything, we'll be constrained by physics and regulation.
And these machines will last a decade, as software gets relentlessly more efficient and we find creative uses for older clusters.
Earnings will be absurd in the next five years, as companies like Microsoft, Uber, Tesla, Robinhood, and Meta have revenue per employee DOUBLE every 3-4 years.
Pay attention to revenue and earnings per employee.
"AI is slowing down."
Google Cloud growth, last 5 quarters:
34%
48%
63%
82%
103%
Azure just went from 40% to 48%.
These aren't startups. They're two of the biggest businesses on earth, and they're accelerating. Google says it's out of capacity and renting other people's compute.
Not slowing down. Speeding up.
OpenAI might buy Google's chips.
Oracle's adding Google, Cerebras and SambaNova to its cloud.
That's the $NVDA bear case in two headlines. I get it.
But crack open a TPU and look at what's sitting next to the compute. HBM. Same memory. Same problem moving data between chips.
So I'm not that worried. ~39% in NVDA/MU/SK Hynix, ~19% in ALAB/CRDO/SITM.
If Nvidia gives up some share, the memory and the cables don't care whose logo is on the chip.
Not selling NVDA over a media report.
FinallyFoolin retweeted
$SKHY just reported some absolutely RIDICULOUS earnings!
The company reported $78.9 billion in Q3 revenue, beating estimates of $74.8 billion and growing 328% year over year. Operating profit surged 632% to $62.8 billion, with operating margins hitting a RECORD 80%. Even more impressive, revenue jumped 32% sequentially while operating profit increased 38%. DRAM pricing rose nearly 30% quarter over quarter, while NAND pricing increased roughly 25%.
But here’s where things get really interesting. SK hynix expects memory demand to OUTPACE supply through 2030. The company is forecasting DRAM demand growth in the mid-20% range next year and NAND demand growth in the high teens. It’s also signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including large cloud providers, securing more than 50% of its planned capacity for 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile, HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E in shipment and revenue share during Q4. This is exactly why I’ve been so bullish on the memory trade. AI infrastructure spending is creating enormous demand for memory, and manufacturers are benefiting from both higher volumes and significant pricing power. And with more than half of SK hynix’s capacity for the next two years already secured, this isn’t just a short term demand spike. We’re seeing customers lock in supply YEARS in advance.
