Fok Hing Crypto

Everyone expects double top in 2025. I think it's wrong. Think about it: Firstly, identical chart patterns don't exist at all and certainly won't appear one after another in sequence. There's always an element of high entropy to that during the top/bottom formations. It's also a fallacy to claim that if a pattern resolved one way, it will continue doing that forever. Rookie mistake. Facts: 100% of market tops occurred in Q2 or Q4. There's a reason for that. Take the "Best Six (Eight) Months" for S&P 500 - Nov through May (July for Nasdaq). Q3 is the summertime doldrums - everything slows. That results in September being the worst month. Which is why October is typical bottom formation. From there, Q4 rallies strong into EOY with Black Friday (sales up => earnings up => stocks up) and Santa Claus Rally (s/o @AlmanacTrader). That's why BTC gains +50% on average in Q4. Q4 2024: +47.45% (vs. +50.86% expected) Then, 2025, new year, new me, new portfolio resolutions, etc. And newbies notice that markets have already rallied in recent Q4, so they jump on the bandwagon. And so do millions of other traders. That creates buying volume, pushing the markets higher and spiraling up the FOMO into Q2. "Sell in May, Walk Away" stands still for decades. May comes up, and what do traders do? Yes - they sell. That creates selloffs into Q3 summertime and 1-year seasonal pattern repeats. So now, Bitcoin bull has been up since November 2022 (FTX collapse day). That lands us 785 days and 6.33X from cycle low. Now, knowing Q2 is (at least local) top after spiral, that's where you'll have lots of money. 2025 is like 2021, 2017, 2013. Study the past. There's a lesson in there. It's always post-election rally (977% annualised gain - WTF), marking the top and off to start big bear during the same year. So, even if you can't guess Q2 or Q4 for peak, on avg you land at Q3. Meaning that it's better to get ready for market peak and take some heavy profits off the table before Q3 starts (amplifying Q2 peak). What if you wait for the Q4 second top, and it never comes? 2026 is a typical midterm elections bear market. BTC avg loss is -66% in midterm years (-80% from ATH). "Ok, but now we have ETFs, AI, and meme coins; this time is different." It's true but also bullshit. It's always different, and still, 2026 is midterm bear for decades. Imagine you make life-changing money to retire your entire family, and you fail. You just give back all the profits just because you've waited for second peak that never came. Is it really worth the risk? So, you want out before 2026 starts, and before Q3 starts to benefit from bull spirals. It's just more reasonable to assume Q2 top than Q4. In my case, H1 is about wealth creation. H2 is about wealth protection, diversifying into passive income, gradual exit into less volatile) options like gold, silver, cash, real estate, private equity, hedge funds, etc. If you're ready for the most conservative scenario, you'll also enjoy unexpected bull extension if it comes. Expect the best and be ready for the worst. Common sense practice. The next 6 months will be game-changing for all of us. So, strap in and buckle up. (and follow me @crypto_birb in giving you the riches)