Associate Director @PauseAIUS. Formerly at tech startups, but AI danger is too big to ignore.

Washington, DC
Joined March 2021
Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
If done by a human, this would be a federal crime. Wait. It was done by a human. His picture is right there in the article.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
The people cutting employees while revenue is growing are the same people you're counting on to pay your UBI out of the goodness of their hearts.
Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000(!) employees. Headcount and revenue growth is really starting to diverge at tech companies.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Investing in the Anthropic IPO is a moral hazard. You may think of it as hedging your bets, but just don't do it.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Actually Dario Amodei and the staff of Anthropic did this
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An internet where every company has to pay big bucks to Anthropic and OpenAI every month just to avoid destruction by ever-present swarms of rogue AI agents is not nearly as economically valuable as the free internet we've enjoyed up to now.
The proliferation of AI cyberattacks may signal the end of the internet as a public good. We may only be able to use it in the future if everyone shells out big bucks for private security. That will reduce the internet's economic value. noahpinion.blog/p/the-intern…
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Three options for what happens next. (My *strong* preference is 02: the world wakens out of its present stupor and takes decisive action)
Humanity has only perhaps one or two more years left of living in vaguely normal circumstances
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Yes. note that there's also a third option, which is "if it's too dangerous for everyone to have it, it's too dangerous to train in the first place."
Everyone should be looking for data points to advance the longstanding debate in AI policy between “diffuse dual-use capabilities rapidly so the good guys can defend themselves” and “restrict capabilities proliferation to only carefully vetted good guys.” We are putting the former position to the test as we speak. No motivated reasoning to reach your preferred conclusion; just pay attention and update as appropriate in whatever direction seems true. This is much too important for low-fidelity tribal polarization.
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Shame on Dean for continuing to misleadingly neglect the obvious option to stop building AI. I'm not surprised given his history of visciously attacking the character of anyone who suggests we have or use this option.
Yes. note that there's also a third option, which is "if it's too dangerous for everyone to have it, it's too dangerous to train in the first place."
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Nobody pushes back on me calling the AI company people evil anymore. Not even “but nobody is evil 😭” Would have been better if they had seen earlier when it was easier to intervene. But you can do your part now to withdraw your support from this evil AI takeover project: It’s really as easy as reclaiming your energy. Don’t give AI your excitement and your trust. Don’t be friends with the assholes who are trying to destroy and conquer us. (How could you want to? They aren’t your friends. They are trying to destroy your world.) Stop fantasizing about the future faking they’ve sold you about living in Heaven. Stop identifying with criminals and feeling like you’re already complicit for having enjoyed the hype— you are not a conspirator to coup the world bc of that. You were fooled, and it’s time to get mad. You were tricked into accepting their plan. Some of you were conscripted into identifying with their tribe. It’s sucks to realize you were duped, and that that led you to do harm for them, but reckoning with that is the most important work you can do to set things right. Stop being shock troops for the villains and turn on them. We can have them safely behind bars.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
I’m angry about the world being put at immense risk. And there are people to blame— the directors, officers, and employees of the frontier AI companies. They did this. They went to work every day to make this happen. Knowing the risks better than anyone. Truly evil.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Wake up!!! @azeem is calling all these hacks “AI’s Wuhan moment”. Marc Benioff called it a code red. And it is clear it is all going to get worse. Yet the AI companies insist on shipping obviously dangerous products. Meanwhile the U.S. government lacks the will and/or competence to do anything about it. We are on an express train to hell. Tell your congress people to temporarily ban AI agents, or brace for impact.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
What I intend to do: I am looking to write a detailed report which investigates issues of sexual harassment & sexism in AI safety. I want to be able to cite as many concrete examples as possible. I plan to use this report in discussions with org leaders & may write a public post
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
Replying to @ZachWeiner
As far as we are concerned, infinite. Eventually you hit actual physics constraints, but that world would be more alien to us today than today is to a hunter-gatherer. The reason is because “what a human can do” includes both scientific research in general, and improving AI itself. So these new discoveries would be functionally infinite from our POV.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
With all due respect to your friends working at Anthropic, they are traitors to humanity. They may rationalize, justify and self deceive about this, but that's who they are.
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Why do you @AbHomineDeus think the wealthy “need” consumers? If we’re talking about AI end games, the automated economy can just… give them the stuff. You have it backwards. The wealthy don’t need consumers, they need stuff. They contract employees to sell products for them, to get the consumers money, to get the stuff. With AI, you can just cut out the middle man! Just have the AI+robots build the stuff for you, no more pesky middle man. Capital crushes labor. The idea that consumers are “necessary” is a historically unique moment we are in where people have surplus value for each other that they can exchange for goods and services. That is not an iron law of the economy! If the AI can just do it better than you, you will get cut out. And yes they want stability, but why would you expect to get paid a high income for it? That’s not the way all-powerful cliques have historically done it. If there is UBI, it will be with severe strings attached, at the cost of our freedom. And there might not be any UBI at all, just the threat of more punishment by an automated military.
I feel like doomers like this can't see past the end of their nose. The government and the wealthy need stability and consumers. UBI/UHI is coming and shortly after that things get really weird as we 100x the economy with no one working. Central planning with ASI at the helm.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
When I hear folks at Anthropic, Dario included, talk about the costly actions they’ve taken, it’s usually framed relative to the other AI companies. But by their own admission they’re building something with a non-trivial chance of causing human extinction. At that point the relative scale doesn’t matter. What matters is whether their actions are reasonable given the risk, as they and the rest of the field see it. And by their own rhetoric they’ve asked to be held to a higher standard than a regular company. Writing off the bill they were circulating on the Hill as a mix-up, the kind of thing that happens at any company their size, is a pretty big missing mood.
Dario — Thank you for taking the time to respond to my previous post. I think it's great when this kind of engagement happens in public rather than on company Slacks, and I hope to see more of it. I agree that Anthropic isn't best modeled as a profit-maximizer. Your post gave several compelling examples of Anthropic taking competitive hits for safety, and insofar as my previous post suggested otherwise, that's on me. But I don't think I made my main point as clearly as I could have, so let me try again. It comes down to four key claims: 1. Anthropic seems to be racing at breakneck speed to build recursively self-improving superintelligence (RSI). By its own lights, that could kill billions of people or literally destroy the world. 2. Risking destroying the world is very hard to justify. It is only conceivably acceptable if serious attempts to put RSI under robust societal governance are failing. 3. Far from meeting that burden, Anthropic, when push comes to shove, often works to keep governments from tying its hands. It seems to care much more about preventing government overreach than about reducing the risk that it and other AI companies will destroy the world. 4. Even if the AEGIS Act really was an honest mix-up, as you suggest, that is itself a serious problem. It suggests Anthropic isn't treating the governance of this technology with anything close to the gravity it deserves. In greater detail for those who want it: 1. Anthropic is racing to RSI, and by its own lights that is insanely risky. Launching RSI could literally destroy the world. That's according to you, your co-founders, and most of your safety staff and capabilities researchers, not to mention many AI researchers outside your walls. You are intentionally trying to create generally intelligent systems more capable than all humans that you claim in six to twelve months “could be capable” of taking over the entire internet before we have the ability to reliably monitor, control, or align them. “Succeeding” at RSI could kill or permanently disempower billions of people in the near future, including me and everyone I love. Yet Anthropic’s primary focus seems to be marshalling an immense amount of resources and talent in a race to get there first. 2. Risking destroying the world carries an enormous burden of justification. I believe the vast majority of people do not want Anthropic to do this (to the extent they know what it's doing). Imposing even a modest chance of catastrophe on billions of people who never consented requires an extraordinary justification. The central one Anthropic has offered: someone will build RSI regardless, so it's better for a safety-focused lab to be at the front of the pack, using that position to support strong AI governance. (Other reasons Anthropic has given, like modestly accelerating improvements in healthcare or economic growth, don’t seem remotely proportionate to the risks Anthropic is imposing by its own lights.) But that argument only works as a last resort. Racing to RSI is only conceivably okay if attempts to institute robust societal governance to manage that race are failing despite your best efforts. A lab that relies on this justification should be a strong, consistent supporter of efforts to enact governance that could bind it, including governance that could slow it and significantly constrain what it does. 3. Rather than supporting efforts at strong regulation, Anthropic has intervened to keep governments from tying its hands. Anthropic has sometimes helped: it played a very helpful role in passing transparency bills in Illinois and ongoing efforts in Massachusetts, and I'm sincerely appreciative. But transparency is far from enough for a technology that will be the world's most powerful superweapon at best, and an uncontrollable swarm of lethally superintelligent agents at worst. When it matters most, Anthropic has often pushed for weak regulation. The AEGIS Act is the most obvious example. No highly risky industry is regulated as anemically as AEGIS would regulate frontier AI: not nuclear, not banking, not aviation, not food safety, not the manufacture of explosives. In all of those industries, specialist regulators can address unsafe practices well before they cause harm. AEGIS would bar the federal government from intervening to block unsafe development or deployment of models until there is an "imminent risk" of catastrophic harm, and would require it to meet a demanding burden of proof in court. Worse, AEGIS would also prevent states from picking up the slack. This design makes perfect sense if you're a company trying to minimize the risk that the government can overly constrain you. It makes little sense if you want American democracy to govern frontier AI effectively. This isn't the first time. The initial version of California's SB 1047 would have let the Attorney General sue to stop developers like Anthropic from imposing unreasonable risks of catastrophic harm. It would also have created a regulatory agency to help set safety standards. Anthropic objected, and helped get both provisions removed before ultimately offering some support for the bill (which I also genuinely appreciate). I’m not saying that Anthropic should have supported 1047 in its initial form; that’s a complex issue and I realize there were questions about whether earlier versions of the bill were less politically feasible. Still, in Anthropic's own words, it helped weaken the bill because "[t]here is a substantial risk that the bill and state agencies will simply be wrong about what is actually effective in preventing catastrophic risk, leading to ineffective and/or burdensome compliance requirements." The same goes for New York's RAISE Act, whose initial version also would have let the Attorney General sue to stop unreasonable risks of catastrophic harm. Anthropic credits itself as a supporter of RAISE, but it did not support the bill while it was in the legislature, including when it nearly died. After the bill passed the legislature, Anthropic publicly critiqued it, saying "Any state proposals should be narrowly focused on transparency and not overly prescriptive." Why does Anthropic consistently take the risk of clumsy government action far more seriously than its own repeated warnings that companies like Anthropic will literally destroy the world by racing to RSI? 4. Even if AEGIS was an honest mix-up, that is itself a serious problem. Your response frames AEGIS as an early draft and a miscommunication. Perhaps you would have strengthened it and narrowed its preemption. (That wouldn't explain Anthropic's interventions to weaken SB 1047 or RAISE, but leave that aside.) Suppose that's exactly right. A federal framework for governing RSI is one of the highest-stakes documents your company will touch. Your post admits Anthropic "could have handled [these matters] better," but its tone ("This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations") doesn't reflect the gravity of this issue. Anthropic talks about the need for “operational excellence” in critical areas, and I have a hard time believing that a similarly cavalier attitude would be tolerated while Anthropic was negotiating a key compute deal or preparing its next large pre-training run. In short The justification for racing rests on Anthropic fighting for strong governance, and Anthropic's record on regulation points the other way. Together with its breakneck racing, that fits a much darker picture of the company than the one that seems to prevail among your employees. I hope that Anthropic reflects on this picture, supports stronger regulation, exercises extraordinary caution when advocating for weak regulation, and doubles down on its founding purpose of helping the world safely navigate transformative AI together, instead of prioritizing Anthropic’s ability to win a race that imposes intolerable risks on everyone alive.
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You cannot collect a paycheck from the AI companies and pretend you are an independent good guy warning the public. You cannot be employed and submissive to the company you are trying to reign in. @deanwball should not have accepted the job at OpenAI. The public is right to be skeptical of industry insiders who claim to be on the side of safety and moderation. Of course your incentives are completely fucked up!
We tried to warn the world and far too often, to be frank, we were yelled at for doing so. “Regulatory capture,” “marketing hype,” “doomer anxiety,” “fear-mongering about open source,” “why don’t you talk about the benefits?”
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
To the people STILL IN the AI industry trying to defend themselves by saying they “tried to warn” us: YOU DON’T GET TO CLAIM TO BE A CASSANDRA WHEN YOU’RE ACTIVELY CREATING THE DANGER ABOUT WHICH YOU’RE SOUNDING THE ALARM.
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
"it was always going to be this way" - guy who worked to make it this way "we tried to warn the world" - guy who soft-pedalled warnings and shrunk the window of time for people to hear them
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Alvaro ⏸️ Cuba retweeted
quite the statement from Anthropic's head of security
Replying to @hinapansari
yes. it was always going to be this way. we tried to warn the world.
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